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rectorsquid
climber
Lake Tahoe
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Mar 14, 2011 - 04:09pm PT
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FYI, according to Harvey Wasserman:
"Both Westinghouse and General Electric, the two major purveyors of nuclear plants in the United States, are now owned by Japanese companies."
That doesn't mean that US plants are designed by the Japanese although I don't think the distinction would matter except for people looking at this problem wearing blinders.
Dave
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cleo
Social climber
Berkeley, CA
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Mar 14, 2011 - 04:11pm PT
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golson - yep, or they use a few Design Basis Events.
We performed an analysis utilizing our underlying geology to come up with what we call Site Specific Ground Motion for our Design Basis Event (Earthquake)
Site Specific Ground Motion for a, say, M7 right next to the power plant is way, way bigger than SSGM for the M8.9 in the subduction zone way offshore. Talking heads saying they "didn't design for that large an EQ" don't know what the hell they are talking about.
If you look at the ground motions on the USGS seismic hazard map (used for planning), and you look at the accelerations actually experienced during the EQ, you'll see that the accelerations match the expected hazard. And nuke plants, I promise you, are designed with much rarer events in mind (10% in 500 years, or something -> higher accelerations)
Expected accelerations ~ 0.32-0.4g (10% probability of exceedance in 50 yrs)
Actual accelerations from the M8.9 ~ 0.35g ?
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Daniel Eubank
Sport climber
Woodbridge, VA
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Mar 14, 2011 - 04:16pm PT
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My heart goes out to the people of Japan and their beautiful country.
The forcast is ominous with rain that will form around nuclear particles in the atmosphere and wind shifing towards high density areas.
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TGT
Social climber
So Cal
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Mar 14, 2011 - 04:17pm PT
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They obviously did design for this large an earthquake because none of the sites had any significant earthquake damage.
The tsunami is what they hadn't adequately planed for.
the radiation level at the plant boundary yesterday was 20 microseverts.
From what I understand this is about the same as a two hour flight at 40,000 feet in the northern latitudes.
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rrrADAM
Trad climber
LBMF
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Mar 14, 2011 - 04:20pm PT
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The backup generators flooded, apparently. So I am not willing to give a tip of my hat to the prescient powers of nuclear design engineers. "They design these things to withstand blah blah blah."
And are taken out by a flood.
Not good.
DMT Believe it or not, I agree... This should have been taken into account better in the design and location of those plants.
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Mighty Hiker
climber
Vancouver, B.C.
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Mar 14, 2011 - 04:22pm PT
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Those interested in helping, rather than say engaging in what Werner would rightly call mental speculations about the situation, should see an article in the New York Times about non-profits that will be providing aid. Hopefully they won't mind some of the article being reproduced here - it includes links to each organization, and is at: http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/11/japan-earthquake-and-tsunami-how-to-help/
Aid and Charitable Organizations
Each of the following groups have set up fundraising sites specifically for the victims of Friday’s earthquake and tsunami.
AMERICAN RED CROSS
Red Cross officials say donors can text REDCROSS to 90999 and a $10 donation will automatically be charged to donor’s phone bill, or donations can be made directly on its Web site.
AMERICARES
Information is available on the organization’s Web site.
CARE
CARE is one of the world’s largest private international humanitarian organizations. Their offices in Asia are on high alert and have ensured that staff are informed of the tsunami warnings and other related developments.
DOCTORS WITHOUT BORDERS
Information is available on the organization’s Web site.
GLOBALGIVING.ORG
GlobalGiving is working with International Medical Corps, Save the Children, and other organizations on the ground to disburse funds to organizations providing relief and emergency services to victims of the earthquake and tsunami. Donors can text JAPAN to 50555 to give $10, and larger increments can be submitted on GlobalGiving’s Web site.
INTERNATIONAL MEDICAL CORPS
Information is available on the organization’s Web site.
LIONS CLUBS INTERNATIONAL
Information is available on the organization’s Web site.
THE SALVATION ARMY
The Salvation Army has been providing food and shelter to Tokyo commuters who were stranded when public transportation was interrupted by the earthquake. They are to send a team to Sendai, a city about 250 miles Tokyo, to assess the situation there. Text JAPAN or QUAKE to 80888 to make a $10 donation. (Make sure to respond “YES” to the Thank You message you receive.) Donations can also be made on the organization’s Web site or by calling 1-800-SAL-ARMY.
SAVE THE CHILDREN
To make a donation, visit Save the Children’s Web site, call 1-800-728-3843, or text JAPAN to 20222 to donate $10.
SHELTERBOX.ORG
Shelterbox.org is a disaster-relief organization that focuses on providing survival materials such as tents and cooking equipment to families displaced by disasters.
UJA-FEDERATION OF NEW YORK
Information is available on the organization’s Web site or by calling (212) 836-1486.
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cleo
Social climber
Berkeley, CA
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Mar 14, 2011 - 04:24pm PT
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Yea, me too - the flood is the problem and they didn't design well for it.
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golsen
Social climber
kennewick, wa
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Mar 14, 2011 - 04:28pm PT
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My heart goes out to all those folks. Terrible destruction.
While it is easy to sit on the internet and deduce that the designers screwed up, I guess I will wait to see just what the designers were thinking. The fact that the EDG's were flooded is not a good indication. But having managed the worlds largest Nuclear Waste Vitrification plant in the world for the last three years I am hesitant to throw the designers under the bus based upon the information that has come out. In other words it would be incorrect to assert that the Engineers were responsible for the first Space Shuttle accident. In other words, there is more to a bad design thatn bad designers.
For those against Nuclear Power i suppose there is cause for happiness:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/14/japan-quake-industry-idUSN1414498220110314
Now we can choke on the coal fired power plant emissions that supply 45% of our Electricity and kill more people per year than nukes ever have or ever will.
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Brandon-
climber
Done With Tobacco
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Mar 14, 2011 - 04:30pm PT
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rrrAdam, I'm re-posting this because maybe you missed it and I'd like to hear your input. Seriously, I'm not trying to belittle you in any way. It's just my take on the whole fiasco.
Is chance not too great a variable to effectively quantify? It's the chance of a similar catastrophe, with different causes, that renders this technology inherently dangerous. The stacking of unlikely events in unpredictable sequence can render the best laid plans to waste.
Thanks, and thank you for all the info you've supplied us with throughout the last few days.
Best,
Brandon-
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Mighty Hiker
climber
Vancouver, B.C.
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Mar 14, 2011 - 04:35pm PT
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There seems a dearth of reliable information about what actually happened and is happening, to draw many meaningful conclusions. Certainly there's a human need to want to know these things, but it will take time. Which is why the scenarios presented must all be preceded with a big if. And in any case, there's nothing at all we can do about the design of the reactors, their safety features, and so on. Whereas there is a very immediate need to help the survivors.
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TGT
Social climber
So Cal
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Mar 14, 2011 - 04:36pm PT
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Radiation is a non issue with that weather forecast.
Thousands of people are going to be spending tonight out in the rain in near freezing temperatures..
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rrrADAM
Trad climber
LBMF
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Mar 14, 2011 - 04:36pm PT
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Lollie...
There is no power to any of the 6 units. Even though the other 3 units were down for refueling, the fuel in the pot if it's still there, and in the spent fuel pool still needs to be kept cool, and this is done with circulating water. If no power, then the source of power for this is the EDGs. Since we have heard nothing in the news about the other units, I am assuming that they are still up and running.
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rrrADAM
Trad climber
LBMF
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Mar 14, 2011 - 04:40pm PT
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Is chance not too great a variable to effectively quantify? It's the chance of a similar catastrophe, with different causes, that renders this technology inherently dangerous. The stacking of unlikely events in unpredictable sequence can render the best laid plans to waste.
IMO, no... As I'd said earlier, bridges and buildings are designed to not collapse in the event of a HUGE seismic event. That doesn;t mean they will not be damaged beyond repair, and cannot be used, but instead means that they will not collaps causing loss of life.
Same thing here... They are ultimately designed to "contain" the problem, if all else fails, and thus far, it has done this.
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PAUL SOUZA
Trad climber
Clovis, CA
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Mar 14, 2011 - 04:45pm PT
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Whatever happens, that plant will be decommissioned. Injecting seawater into the primary system = BAD since primary chemistry is strictly controlled to prevent chlorides, which results in corrosion to the system.
P.S. I worked in a nuclear power plant for 5 years in the Navy.
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rrrADAM
Trad climber
LBMF
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Mar 14, 2011 - 04:54pm PT
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BTW, I was just able to verify that at least Fuku 1 is a GE Mark I design, which is the same design as both of the units at the nuke where I work.
That said, we do have some additional safety features that have been added throughout the years, including even additional redundancies or already redundant systems. And our EDGs are behind water tight doors, as well as being elevated a bit, as my site was designed for the storm surge associated with huricanes.
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golsen
Social climber
kennewick, wa
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Mar 14, 2011 - 04:55pm PT
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Brandon,
from what I have seen, chance or I think you mean Probability is used extensively in many fields when it pertains to human health and the environment. The probability of an "event" is one of those things where engineers must be careful and not fall into the trap of "garbage in -> gospel out".
Think about a skyscaper in LA. they would have to look at past events and underlying geology to try and figure out what they believe would be the worst case for a seismic event. I am no structural engineer, but these are usually codified so that the building design would then have to meet this criteria.
In the case of a Tsunami taking out the EDG's, I am particularly interested in what the Japanese equivalent to the NRC says on the issue. I know this is not much help, but this discussion on Probability of Natural Events can go on and on. We are currently at the hanford site working with the USGS on the amount of Ashfall that a Volcanic Event my release. Talk about what-if's. It depends upon the wind speed and direction, Volcanic Event, etc. The Nuke Power station up the road from me has designed for this event already. In their case they designed their EDG's to function despite all of the ash in the air. In other words they filter out the combustion air for the EDG's.
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John Moosie
climber
Beautiful California
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Mar 14, 2011 - 05:03pm PT
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Talk about what-if's
Thats the main problem with nuclear energy. If a bridge collapses because of some one in a trillion "what if", then the people on it die and we rebuild the bridge.
On the other hand, if a one in a trillion "what if" disaster occurs with a nuclear facility, then the damages can be a whole lot more severe for a whole lot more people.
Its virtually impossible to plan for every "what if".
Please don't think that I am against nuclear energy. I am just expressing the underlying problem. When a nuclear plant fails, that failure can be massive.
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Brandon-
climber
Done With Tobacco
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Mar 14, 2011 - 05:07pm PT
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Precisely John, it's impossible to factor in every possible scenario. The potential sequence of negative events is infinite.
With such a volatile and possibly dangerous energy source, I find that disconcerting.
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Gene
climber
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Mar 14, 2011 - 05:10pm PT
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Seems to my mind that the flaw was more in expectations than in the design.
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Chaz
Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
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Mar 14, 2011 - 05:10pm PT
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The Japanese have bigger things to worry about right now.
Simple sh#t, like Cholera, has potential to kill more people in Japan than their nuclear reactors do.
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