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madbolter1
Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
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Jul 11, 2016 - 06:05pm PT
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the studies done on gun laws and gun deaths DO show correlations
Yup. The correlations they show are exactly what one would expect....
Wait for it....
Drum roll please....
Yes, you got it: They show EXACTLY the correlations that the researchers expected to see.
This is the nature of cherry-picked statistics. Pick your metrics: start-time, end-time, defined "region," and so forth, and then "show" your conclusions "deriving" from the data.
For example, your "other end of the spectrum" conveniently "forgot" to include Washington DC (oh, right, not a state; see how that works?) that has about double the gun-homicide rate of the next state, and DC has for decades had about the strictest gun-control laws in the nation.
Oh, and barely behind Louisiana, Maryland is third at that "other end of the spectrum" you mention, yet Maryland also has long had very strict gun-control laws.
So, these studies carefully cherry-pick "exemplar" states at either end of "the spectrum" to show the mentioned "correlation."
In statistical studies as in no other "science," you GET what you expect to get, and it's trivially easy to (intentionally or unintentionally) play with your metrics to get the results you need from the "objective data."
Try it yourself! It's fun: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/science-isnt-broken/
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bluering
Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
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Jul 11, 2016 - 06:20pm PT
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MB is correct. You have to be careful with statistics. Always!
Even FBI stats, considered very reliable, can be manipulated if you only look at certain metrics of behavior, skin color, cause of death, or whatever you want.
It is better to try to take a wide-angle look at problems like this, and then work inward. But many, many things need consideration.
And they need to be considered carefully.
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Sierra Ledge Rat
Mountain climber
Old and Broken Down in Appalachia
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Jul 11, 2016 - 06:27pm PT
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SLR, just look at the restrictive gun laws already in place in many areas and tell me how low their gun crime rates are...might as well start with Chicago.
Also, you seriously think, that with probably 300 million or more guns in circulation in this country, a bad guy wouldn't be able to get his hands on one regardless of the restrictions?
You are naïve.
Jody, you avoided my question and turned to the age-old tactic of name calling to divert attention from the fact that you cannot provide any facts
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Jul 11, 2016 - 06:32pm PT
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--------------------------------------------
An August 2013 CDC report looked at rates for gun homicides in the 50 most populous metropolitan areas. It found that for 2009-2010, the top gun murder rate areas were, in order: New Orleans, Memphis, Detroit, Birmingham, St. Louis, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Philadelphia and Chicago.
Six of those cities are in states with poor scores for their gun laws, while the other four get a “C” or better. Chicago, which placed last in the top 10, had a ban on handguns at the time. There’s no discernible pattern among those cities, nor clear or convincing evidence in these statistics that shows more gun laws lead to more or less gun crime.
The 10 States with the highest gun ownership have an average gun homicide rate below the national average.
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Gary
Social climber
Where in the hell is Major Kong?
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Jul 11, 2016 - 06:36pm PT
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I know one thing for certain. No amount of restrictive gun laws would have stopped the bad guy.
I,too, am interested in how you came to this conclusion.
And before you trot out that tired old argument, you may note that Chicago is not a city in bubble.
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madbolter1
Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
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Jul 11, 2016 - 06:37pm PT
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You have to be careful with statistics. Always!
Agreed, but I'd go even further. Statistical analysis is exactly what Twain said: Damned lies.
Look at the "studies" in medical research. Yeah, we're doing the best we can, and medical studies are (somewhat) better than guessing or witch doctors. But the litany of things that turn out to be flat-out wrong, misinterpreted, skewed by drug companies, or "later studies" overturn is an impressive list indeed! And that's not counting fraudulent research (very common in some disciplines like psychology) and wishful thinking that can find "correlative" evidence.
[Click to View YouTube Video]
It would be comforting if we could believe that failed studies are the exception and that "most of the time" the line "studies show" meant something actually reliable. But, sadly, the rule is that "studies show" is a pretty vacuous phrase that simply does not imply ANY reliability.
Even the best of them (studies of studies) are fraught with danger, as we see in the AHA's fairly recent admission that, "Hey, eat all the eggs you want, as we NOW see no correlation between dietary cholesterol and morbidity from heart disease. But, you should watch your total fat intake."
Yet, even that last sentence is not supported by the "best" studies we have, such as the Framingham study, which (so far, spanning decades) "shows" that total fat intake (and types of fat) have no demonstrated correlation with morbidity from heart disease. So, the "official word" STILL does not correlate with the best, umm, correlations we know about.
And it goes on an on.
Better than witch doctors? Probably. Not sure. We'd have to run some studies to "see" the "correlations."
But "the TRUTH"? Uh, no.
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Gary
Social climber
Where in the hell is Major Kong?
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Jul 11, 2016 - 07:07pm PT
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Thugs are shot by cops...... Unfortunate as it may be these people, as far as I'm aware, were thugs. It's tough enough to be a cop in these area's, but we don't care what it may be like for our Leo's.
Even if they are not thugs, they look like thugs! That's good enough.
A lawyer for a Minnesota police officer who shot a black driver said Monday his client thought he was approaching someone who resembled a suspect in an armed robbery — an assertion that could be pivotal as investigators review how the deadly traffic stop went down. http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/lawyer-cop-shot-castile-thought-robbery-suspect-40495203
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
Shetville , North of Los Angeles
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Jul 11, 2016 - 07:09pm PT
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Hugs...Not thugs...
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Norton
Social climber
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Jul 11, 2016 - 07:10pm PT
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yes, it is always such a bitch when studies and research directly prove one wrong
leading to the usual, denial then anger then denial plus more anger plus bullshit
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feralfae
Boulder climber
in the midst of a metaphysical mystery
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Jul 11, 2016 - 07:12pm PT
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An Interesting Commentary on Summary Judgement and Execution
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2016/07/mike-holmes/summary-judgement-execution-robot/
I wonder what the thinking among us is on this. I found it thought-provoking. But I am not thinking well. Just flew in from Anaheim a few hours ago. Am I the Only person in this nation who did not know that Disneyland is in Anaheim??? The fireworks were super!
Anyway, I found the above commentary germane.
feralfae
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Escopeta
Trad climber
Idaho
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Jul 11, 2016 - 07:32pm PT
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yes, it is always such a bitch when studies and research directly prove one wrong
leading to the usual, denial then anger then denial plus more anger plus bullshit
Norton, how come you didn't cite references from the study your man Obeezy laid out an executive order for?
Don't you remember, right after Sandy Hook how you were celebrating that the Pres Obummer was taking matters into his own hands and breaking the stranglehold on the Republican ban of spending money on gun research!!!
You remember, you were walking around with your chest out for your boy.
I wonder why the results of that study, the study that all the anti-gun peeps were waiting on to FINALLY get vindication and confirmation.
Ooops. Wait, what? I don't know anything about a study? Lol.
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madbolter1
Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
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Jul 11, 2016 - 07:48pm PT
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studies and research directly prove one wrong
ROFL
Sorry, but your ignorance is showing.
Studies and research cannot in principle prove anything.
ANYTHING!
And you must not have bothered to go to the site I linked to showing how you can manufacture "solid research" to "prove" anything you care to, even contradictory things.
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bluering
Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
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Jul 11, 2016 - 07:48pm PT
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Anyway, the stats are clear. The discusion needs to be why is the black community so full of thuggery comparatively? I think you'd all agree it's lack of leadership, accountability, and our welfare system.
These should be the topics of BLM not this race baiting bullshit
I concur.
The bold, honest truth is too uncomfortable for most to deal with.
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Craig Fry
Trad climber
So Cal.
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Jul 11, 2016 - 07:55pm PT
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Here is the answer to your question
They aren't killing each other because they are black in Chicago
They are killing each other because of endemic poverty, they are killing for drugs, food, money, jobs, etc..
you bring back a million jobs to that area and that crime would disappear
It has nothing to do with blacks being killed because they ARE Black.
They are not racists killing because they hate blacks.
Blacks are killed by police at a higher rate than whites
a nut shell
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bluering
Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
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Jul 11, 2016 - 08:03pm PT
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They are killing each other because of endemic poverty, they are killing for drugs, food, money, jobs, etc..
you bring back a million jobs to that area and that crime would disappear
Right. Sounds easy.
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Craig Fry
Trad climber
So Cal.
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Jul 11, 2016 - 08:06pm PT
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maybe if we tried it would work
a lack of good paying jobs due to Republican policies sure isn't helping
and we keep trying them with failed results
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bluering
Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
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Jul 11, 2016 - 08:16pm PT
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maybe if we tried it would work
a lack of good paying jobs due to Republican policies sure isn't helping
You have it backwards, brother. Most failed cities have seen decades of entrenched Democrat policy. Chicago, Detroit, San Francisco, etc...
A hard-nosed fiscal conservative is in order. Preferably a black man/woman, but it shouldn't matter.
Conservative policies like welfare-to-work (from Bill Clinton!) would be good starts. Charter schools. Axe Common Core. State assitance for Community College tuition (not free!)
Better regulation of welfare programs. Stopping handing out EBT cards like candy in Iraqi villages!
Most of all, and I really hate saying this because it's so cliche, it requires real leadership. In this case I think it will require a bold black man or woman to stand up to black thugs, and say enough!
Start having respect for your neighborhoods. Go to school, get a trade/career. Raise a family.
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madbolter1
Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
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Jul 11, 2016 - 09:01pm PT
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They are killing each other because of endemic poverty, they are killing for drugs, food, money, jobs, etc..
Yeah, right. Because there are no white people in Chicago suffering from these same problems.
Oh, wait, but the whites just don't kill each other at such wildly disproportionate rates.
Hmmm
you bring back a million jobs to that area and that crime would disappear
What sort of jobs do you have in mind? Doctors? Lawyers? University professors? LOL
Sadly, there just AREN'T a million jobs at the skill-level of most of the people we are talking about.
And when you libs get the minimum wage up to $15 per hour, there will be even fewer, as those sorts of jobs will simply be converted to kiosks and other automated processes.
And then you'll just blame something else: Those evil, evil corporations that downsized all those minimum-wage jobs because (shame on them) they should have "distributed profits" rather than downsize.
Of course, you'll refuse to face the fact that the typical (independently owned and operated) franchise business (such as fast food chains) operates on a 5% profit margin. 5%! There's simply not massive "profits" to "redistribute."
But you libs don't contemplate actual economic realities. Your president has never produced any product or service, run any business, or tried in ANY sense to be a profit-making individual in his life. So, it's "easy" to "just fix it" when you have no real-world knowledge of what you're supposedly fixing and the side-effects of your "fixes."
The money for new jobs has to be GENERATED, usually on really tight profit-margins! There is not the money to just blithely redistribute to higher wages, and companies WILL necessarily downsize to cope with your grand, mastermind plans.
Then there will be even fewer jobs that most of the inner-city folks you're talking about CAN do. They'll keep killing each other, and your "fix" will have accomplished exactly zip.
For all the excuses you try to make, someday you're going to have to seriously grapple with the FACT that regardless of economic lines and social conditions, blacks just kill each other at wildly disproportionate rates compared to whites.
And it's outrageous to "fix" that problem via sweeping national policies touching basic human rights (such as the right to self defense) by dumbing the entire society down to the level of those that choose deadly violence as their go-to solution.
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10b4me
Mountain climber
Retired
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Topic Author's Reply - Jul 11, 2016 - 09:12pm PT
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“But that is one of the real issues with the gun right issues that we face, that in the middle of a firefight, it’s hard to pick out the good guys and the bad guys,” -Dallas Mayor Mike Dawlings
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
Shetville , North of Los Angeles
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Jul 11, 2016 - 09:22pm PT
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Jody... I don't see Republicans , especially , or Democrats trying to create jobs..NAFTA was a bust , it hosed Mexico and contributed to lower milk prices , encouraging more drug trade....15 bucks an hour is not enough to live on...If there's a minimum wage set by the government then there should be a maximum wage...Fair is fair..
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