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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Mar 29, 2018 - 04:50pm PT
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Well, he is a touch ‘unusual’. What I should have said was that I believe the POTUS has
the potential for more downside influence than upside.
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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This volatility is amazing. A thousand points up in barely 24 hours??
Surfs up!
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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The market is always right, but it needs a while to catch its breath. That’s why I’m neutral for the duration. Neither a buyer nor a seller be. I’m just a spender for a while. I am convinced that we’re looking at the new normal vis a vis valuations combined with somewhat reduced returns. I’m quite enjoying the trade contratemps because China is posturing and blowing smoke. They need us more than vice versa, if only marginally. In the end we will come to a new understanding that is fairer and more realistic.
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Norton
climber
The Wastelands
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DOW futures opened down around 400 pts after the cash market closed, now down 300
due to the US President's statement this afternoon that he will add another $100 billion in tariffs to China trade with us
we elected a 4th grader
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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You clowns have no idea about China’s house of cards. I strongly suggest y’all read something other than The Daily Worker.
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Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Topic Author's Reply - Apr 5, 2018 - 06:39pm PT
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Pizzaman! re your mention:
Or how about a tariff on Chinese made climbing equipment????
Sounds Great! How about a 100% tariff on Chinese made outdoor gear & clothing?
Would U.S. folks stop buying outdoor gear & clothing, almost all of which is made in Asia?
Would you die, or suffer horribly, if your next tent or sleeping bag cost twice as much?
Worse yet!! Would you quit camping?
(By the way, I am otherwise anti-tariff.)
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john hansen
climber
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Imagine if Trump figured out he could make money tweeting..
Tell your friends to short Amazon , and then attack them.
The ultimate insider trading.
EDIT: Fritz , I know about Bezo's and the Washington Post.
And I think you are right that he is attacking only his critics,so far.
But what if you knew in advance what he was going to do?
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Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Topic Author's Reply - Apr 5, 2018 - 08:03pm PT
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John! I think Trump is on his Amazon witch-hunt, since Amazon's CEO owns the Washington Post, which has been ripping on Trump's large-ass for the last few years.
Yes! That has caused Amazon stock to tank, but I don't believe Trump cares about making stocks tank, unless they belong to his critics.
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Jon Beck
Trad climber
Oceanside
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hahaha Moose, so you went big AND went home.
yeah, wait till China starts cashing in bonds, we ain't seen nuttin yet.
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Haven't been so happy to hit the weekend in a long time.
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Norton
climber
The Wastelands
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another great week with huge profits for those short the equities futures, ETF's, etc
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Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Topic Author's Reply - Apr 7, 2018 - 07:55pm PT
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Norton! Re your comment:
another great week with huge profits for those short the equities futures, ETF's, etc
I have two friends, who back around 1998, had quite a bit of Inheritance money to play with. They both took a course on how to "short the market."
After a few years, they had both lost all their Inheritance money.
I appreciate those here, who are gifted, skilled, & very lucky, might well know what stocks to short.
This thread is for the rest of us, who are not as gifted, skilled, & lucky, as you.
It is for the Buy & Hold mutual fund Fudds.
Norton! Good luck to you!
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jstan
climber
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Oh, Reilly, pleeeeaaaase.
China has the upper hand. Just watch what she will do to the US government bonds.
Sell, sell, sell!
In the face of recent uncertainties, yields for US debt have not increased as expected by the US bond bears. And exchange rates for the dollar also are not changing significantly. I have read China's policy is not to replace short bonds as they mature. If this is so the selling is taking place in a specific maturity niche.
China has to do something with the dollars it is forced to hold due to our balance of payments deficit. If they move out of the dollar rates of return are much lower than what is available in US debt and they have to worry about changes in exchange rate. Also anyone holding a trillion dollars in securities has to love the liquidity of the US market. Here big debt actually is better. In other considerations, not so much. China's targeted tariffs suggests we are dealing with sophisticated thinkers. Such do still exist. For us here in the US that is, oddly, reassuring.
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Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Topic Author's Reply - Apr 9, 2018 - 09:39am PT
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Woohoo! 2018 looks to be a wild ride in the stock market.
From this USA Today article:
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/stock-market-2018-expect-dow-volatility-as-trade-war-trump-talk-spark-fear/ar-AAvCYdl
There have already been 27 trading days in 2018 on which the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index has closed up or down by more than 1%, compared to just eight days in all of last year, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. If the current pace of 1% swings persists through year-end, it would put the large-company stock index on track for its most volatile year since the financial crisis.
Smith says Wall Street doesn't want tariffs or a trade war and expects the market to remain bumpy until there's more clarity on how the U.S. conflict with China will play out.
Farr's advice to investors in these turbulent times?
"Be sure of the risks you are assuming and that you are comfortable with those risks," he advised. "Don't let emotion, either euphoria or despair, lead you astray. The return of volatility doesn't necessarily mean the bull market is over or that equities are bad investments."
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Apr 10, 2018 - 11:41am PT
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Agreed, though it is unsettling.
I hope they give the Zuck what for. Apology tour indeed.
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Apr 10, 2018 - 03:06pm PT
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When I left they were still grilling him.
I'd draw a cartoon of his coaches teaching him to say, "I'll try to get my team to provide that information for you."
Sheesh!
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Apr 19, 2018 - 02:04pm PT
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Anybody watching crude? Up 30% in 12 months. Once it tops 70 everything will go up.
You might even see the ten year hit three and a quarter.
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Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Topic Author's Reply - Apr 19, 2018 - 02:09pm PT
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Yes! Crude is up, because I was overweight in Energy & now we are weighted about right. Of course it would go up when I sold;)
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Apr 19, 2018 - 02:09pm PT
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Anybody watching crude?
As a Raptor driver you can rest assured! But I am assuaged by the thought that I’m making more than I’m spending as crude goes up. I may be less happy in Norway in a couple months when I have to shell out 8+ Samolians/gallon to the Blonde Sheiks. At least I’ll be getting 30mpg there.
Interesting article here from Reuters on something I’ve been following for a year or two: (the links don’t work)
Next bubble to pop? Watch out for 'most crowded trade'
By Ritvik Carvalho | LONDON
It's long been a financial market truism that if everyone already owns a particular stock, bond or security, there's no one left to buy and the only way for the price to go is down.
That's easy to assert, less easy to measure.
But a long-running and widely followed monthly survey of global investors by Bank of America Merrill Lynch has recently gained a reputation for accurately spotting where the herd is nearing a cliff edge.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch's fund manager survey polls several asset managers every month on various investment trends. Among the questions participants answer is what they consider to be the 'most crowded trade' in world markets.
Since the end of last year, the "most-crowded" trades featured in the survey have all unravelled in a short space of time following the poll's publication.
(For a graphic on 'Evolution of BAML Global Fund Manager Survey "most crowded trade" click reut.rs/2JUjCC0)
Take December for instance. The most-crowded trade according to the survey, published on December 19, was to go long, or buy and hold Bitcoin, the world's biggest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
Bitcoin had soared to a record high of $19,666 by mid-December, before worries of a regulatory clampdown on cryptocurrency exchanges in January quickly deflated what many in the investment world were calling one of the biggest asset price bubbles in history.
(For a graphic on 'Bitcoin halves' click reut.rs/2JTFYTR)
The virtual currency now trades at less than half its peak value -- near the $8,000 mark.
In January, the most-crowded trade highlighted in the survey published on Jan. 16 was shorting, or selling volatility, which had sunk to historically low levels.
Soon after, higher than expected wage growth numbers in the United States prompted a big selloff in stocks and the VIX index, also known as Wall Street's "fear-gauge", posted its biggest one-day spike ever recorded. The VIX is a common proxy for expected stock market volatility.
The spike in the VIX caused major losses at exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or exchange-traded notes (ETNs), which bet on volatility remaining low. Some were forced to shut down.
(For a graphic on 'Short volatility products collapse as VIX spikes' click reut.rs/2ETYJ60)
UP NEXT: TECH?
For February, March and April, the most-crowded trade has been "Long FAANG + BAT", a reference to buying and holding the FAANG (Facebook, Amazon.com, Apple, Netflix, and Google's Alphabet) and BAT (Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent) groups of technology heavyweight stocks in the United States and China.
(For a graphic on 'Blunting FAANGs?' click reut.rs/2EUfuhj)
(For a graphic on 'BAT stocks: flying blind?' click reut.rs/2JTgTZA)
So when could that trade pop?
Manish Kabra, head of European equity and quant strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said it is not unusual for a particular asset class to spend months as a "crowded trade" on the survey.
"Sometimes it takes a bit of patience ... for what people say are crowded trades to become a contrarian trade. Historically we have seen, for instance, for almost six months people could say the same trades were crowded."
Kabra noted three instances in the past where there was a strong view to short emerging markets - those calls were followed by the start of a bull market in emerging markets in 2016.
There hasn't been a heavy shakeout in tech stocks yet but they have been rattled in recent weeks over a range of issues, especially increased regulatory scrutiny and the prospect of being caught up in a trade tussle between Washington and Beijing.
The survey shows funds have been overweight technology stocks for over a decade, raising questions about whether the sector is set to suffer the same fate as Bitcoin and short-vol products.
In the latest poll, 64 percent of investors said they would move to underweight on the sector if anti-trust, tax and privacy regulations ratcheted up.
So if soaring tech stocks are not next in line for a reversal, what could be? The most recent survey indicates the second most-crowded trade has been growing in conviction: shorting the U.S. dollar. Shorting the dollar has been the second most-crowded trade in the survey since February this year.
(For a graphic on 'BAML Global Fund Manager Survey April "most-crowded trade" results' click reut.rs/2ET3Aod)
(Reporting by Ritvik Carvalho; editing by Jane Merriman)
Looks like it’s time to long the dollar, or at least short the Euro.
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