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Spider Savage

Mountain climber
The shaggy fringe of Los Angeles
Mar 18, 2014 - 02:07am PT
Too lazy to read the whole thread, did anyone answer the question of why not just build a refinery in Alberta? Wouldn't it be less work and provide more jobs? I don't get why crude has to be refined in Louisiana?

I used to live 2 blocks from the oil pipeline that runs from Bakersfield to Long Beach. Runs through a nicer neighborhood in Burbank. No spills that I know of.

Base 104, Can you anwer the refinery question? Much respect for Petro Engineers, smart career choice.
kunlun_shan

Mountain climber
SF, CA
Mar 18, 2014 - 02:30am PT
"If i need a cancer diagnosis".

http://news.uci.edu/press-releases/uci-led-study-documents-heavy-air-pollution-in-canadian-area-with-cancer-spikes/

http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-alberta-air-20131026,0,954054.story

Carcinogens emitted from Canada's main fossil fuel hub, study says
U.S. researchers say they found a high incidence of blood cancers among men in Alberta's 'Industrial Heartland.

By Neela Banerjee
October 25, 2013, 4:58 p.m.

An aerial view of Canada's Suncor oil sands extraction facility near the town of Fort McMurray in Alberta. Air samples taken in the region detected pollutants, including carcinogens, researchers say. (Mark Ralston / AFP/Getty Images / October 23, 2009)

By Neela Banerjee

October 25, 2013, 4:58 p.m.

WASHINGTON — A new study has detected air pollutants, including carcinogens, in areas downwind of Canada's main fossil fuel hub in Alberta at levels rivaling those of major metropolises such as Beijing and Mexico City.

The study by researchers from UC Irvine and the University of Michigan also found a high incidence of blood cancers such as leukemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma among men in the area, compared with the rest of Alberta and Canada.

"When you get cancers that can be caused by the carcinogens we are seeing, that is reason for concern," said Isobel J. Simpson, a lead author of the study and a researcher at UC Irvine's chemistry department.

The Alberta government said the study provides an inaccurate picture of pollution in the so-called Industrial Heartland, a three-county area where oil, chemicals and oil sands crude are processed.

"Based on the results of our monitoring, we see no evidence to suggest that people in the Industrial Heartland region are exposed to levels of the chemicals indicated in the paper," said Nikki Booth, spokeswoman for Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development, the provincial regulator.

The issue has drawn attention because most of the oil produced in Canada is shipped to the United States.

Three previous studies since 2009 have detected carcinogens in Alberta's rivers and lakes, near where oil sands are mined. The latest study focuses on a site where oil sands are processed, along with other fossil fuels.

The Industrial Heartland, northeast of the provincial capital, Edmonton, is surrounded largely by farmland. The Shell Scotford complex includes a refinery and a facility that processes 225,000 barrels a day of bitumen, a tarry substance that is extracted from northeastern Alberta's oil sands, diluted with chemicals and piped to the United States.

The study released this week is based on air samples taken over two days in 2010 around 10 facilities. Researchers measured volatile organic compounds, or VOCs, organic chemical mixtures created by certain industrial processes and consumption of fossil fuels, among other things.

VOCs contribute to climate change and formation of smog. They also contain cancer-causing substances such as benzene and 1,3-butadiene.

Tests showed that airborne concentrations of 1,3-butadiene were 322 times greater downwind of the industrial area than upwind. Similarly, downwind concentrations of benzene were 51 times greater.

The researchers said the compounds were consistent with emissions from the nearby facilities.

Simpson said funding allowed for only two days of sampling and the population that showed higher cancer rates was small. The researchers recommended better monitoring of air pollution and health, and suggested that facilities reduce emissions of known carcinogens.

"We don't want this to be study after study after study with no action," Simpson said. "There's enough here to recommend reducing carcinogens in this area."

neela.banerjee@latimes.com
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Mar 18, 2014 - 10:36am PT
Hey. I don't have the answers. The only thing that I have is a good understanding of how intertwined modern human civilization is with oil. It is almost like air. If everyone in the pool is drowning, everyone will spend their last million dollars or their last dime for the last breath of air. Oil is kind of like that. It is present in every aspect of our civilization, and the demand forces us to do things to each other that we wouldn't otherwise do. Some really bad things, like kill people. No other resource has quite that much muscle.

Too bad that it has its down side, but it does.

Somebody talked about oil as a weapon. That was spot on. Just look around you and try to find something that wasn't touched by oil in some way. The mere idea of a small disruption in oil supplies sends prices high. A hurricane in the gulf, for example. That impacts everything you consume. The idea that Russia would cut off Germany or other European countries' natural gas or oil supply, it is a really terrifying possibility.

Even if you walk everywhere, fossil fuels shipped your clothes and shoes.

If you watch oil markets and their behavior, you will find that it isn't some bogeyman "Big Oil" that is running things. It is the appetite for these fuels that is the real driver. The demand is the crazy dog team dragging the insane development.

As for new discoveries, I doubt if many of you are familiar with the production decline curves of the shale gas and oil wells. They are extremely hyperbolic, and if oil prices slid to 75 bucks most of them wouldn't even pay out. That is what I do all day. I map accumulations, figure out reserve numbers, run it through economic analysis software, and advise where to make acquisitions. All kinds of producing properties. Bakken Shale, Eagleford Shale, Woodford Shale, you name it. You would be surprised at how many of the shale play wells don't cover their drilling and producing costs.

Imagine walking your dog. Then imagine a really amped up sled dog team dragging you around, up and down, round and round, wherever it wants to go, and that is where the real "Big Oil" lies. It is the demand. That is one thing that I want to convey.

The carbon tax idea is decades old. Now tell me. Who should be taxed? The oil producer or the oil consumer?



climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Mar 18, 2014 - 11:21am PT
It's a shame folks sling so much crap on this board.

As for me I really appreciate folks Like Base and Ed who have taken time to share their expertise here. Thanks.. I mean it.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Mar 18, 2014 - 11:41am PT
If Base's conscious was really bothering him he would look only for NG, but the country is awash in it and the money is behind finding crude. Take a look at the comparative release's of co2 from various fuels Derek.

http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=73&t=11

Don't you "want" to go out and get yourself a cancer diagnosis or something Fort?
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Mar 18, 2014 - 11:56am PT
There should be a progressive tax on children, except for lunch.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Mar 18, 2014 - 12:33pm PT
My conscience is a little conflicted, Rick. I look for properties that make money. Right now, very little horizontal shale gas drilling is going on. Those wells can cost 8 million dollars or more, and recover only 3 BCF, after figuring out royalties, state gross production taxes, production expenses and the cost of money over time, very little shale gas is paying out at current gas prices. The drilling is mainly to hold leases.

They have started to recover, but there are so many undrilled locations that a new round of drilling will result in a new glut. There is just more gas than the market needs.

I have posted that a switch to natural gas as a transportation fuel is a great idea. It is cheaper than gasoline, it is cleaner than gasoline, but you have to stop and fill up twice as often. That last problem is why most nat gas vehicles are fleet vehicles such as busses, UPS trucks, and other forms of transportation that don't stray too far from home.

We already have the technology to install NG "filling stations in a box" anywhere on a gas pipeline. I even know people who drive NG vehicles. They love it. They just can't take them on road trips outside of the area.

That is a change that we could easily make. Iran has already been switching to NG for years. Iran has some of the largest gas fields in the world, and their production has peaked. Since their only income is from oil sales, they are cutting their domestic oil consumption so that they can keep their export volumes up.

As for the refining questions, that is not my area of expertise. My work is mainly upstream, but I keep an eye on oil and gas price swings.

Another simple thing: oil and natural gas trap in almost identical ways. Sometimes you don't know if you are going to hit oil or gas when drilling a well. Geologically, the traps are pretty much the same, with a couple of differences which will go over everyone's head.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Mar 18, 2014 - 12:36pm PT
"Hey, it's YOU people driving demand! We're just trying to keep up."

That is a good line. Right now oil is bringing 100 bucks per barrel. If oil prices dropped to 75, and I have been through numerous supply/demand price shocks in my life, a lot of drilling would stop.

We have already found all of the easy oil. Now we are scraping the basins clean.

Tvash

climber
Seattle
Mar 18, 2014 - 12:38pm PT
Urban density is key. Shorter travel distances = short haul, lower emission vehicles.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Mar 18, 2014 - 01:03pm PT
Base, how big is Vaca Muerta? Of course, it will be years before any of that
will hit the market.
cuvvy

Sport climber
arkansas
Mar 18, 2014 - 01:04pm PT
Im jumping in my car and Im going bouldering.Im picking up two friends.
I will not accelerate excessively. I maintain my vehicle to maximize engine performance.I am a slave at present to fossil fuels, but there are things i can do to decrease net effects. Life goes on.
You guys should do the same
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Mar 18, 2014 - 01:31pm PT
Bruce you are a low grade moron, with not even the attention span of a gnat. I've been proposing a solution to the imaginary CAGW problem ( increased use of NG to supplant coal generated electricand replacement for gasoline as well as getting over paranoia of nuclear) for as long as I've been on this forum, independent of Base. Pay attention or shut your moronic mouth.
Tvash

climber
Seattle
Mar 18, 2014 - 02:25pm PT
I drive a Scion iQ.

The only way that car would accelerate excessively is if a semi decided to wear it as a grill ornament.

Its one of the few cars that performs better when parked than when in motion.
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Mar 18, 2014 - 03:39pm PT
Just from a basic combustion point of view and a little knowledge of the needs for high temperature combustion points for efficiency in reciprocating engines..

I really doubt that Natural gas produces less C02 per unit of energy sent to the drive wheels of a vehicle.

I would almost be willing to bet natural gas is less CO2 efficient for transportation.

Just like ethanol is counterproductiove regarding total CO2 Emmisions for basically the same reasons.

I'll look into it more tonight and see if I can find some real info and not just natural gas propaganda (which I found a bunch of in like 30 seconds on google).
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Mar 19, 2014 - 12:30pm PT
Come on, man,

Spend thirty seconds googling and you will find that natural gas is the cleanest fossil fuel in emissions per joule of energy.

This was from wiki, but I've also read about it on the eia.gov website, which is an incredible source of energy information:

Natural gas is often described as the cleanest fossil fuel. It produces about 29% and 44% less carbon dioxide per joule delivered than oil and coal respectively,[37] and potentially fewer pollutants than other hydrocarbon fuels.[66]
skcreidc

Social climber
SD, CA
Mar 19, 2014 - 06:08pm PT
Tvash said
Urban density is key. Shorter travel distances = short haul, lower emission vehicles.

Yup. Tash, ever read "A Pattern Language"? Its a dry but good one. A Pattern Language: Towns, Buildings, Construction is a 1977 book on architecture, urban design, and community livability. Electric cars may be more functional in a such an environment. We have a Leaf and let me say it's a pretty good vehicle.....EXCEPT for the battery. I'm epredicting a 4 year life span for the battery. Then apparently it is just junk. Bummer for us. But we bought the thing.......


If we stopped all use of things that involved Oil to make tomorrow, You all would sh!t your pants. Or maybe not....this is all old news anyway. Anything plastic, roadbase, wax, ect., and god forbid...surfboards. But making up more than half the use are the largest 2 ;gasoline and heating/diesel oil.

I still think base is pretty even handed in his assesments, not that I agree with everything. I don't think he has an axe to grind here.
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Mar 19, 2014 - 09:14pm PT
I thought "progressives" were all about democracy?

Howza bout a little democracy?

http://weaselzippers.us/179958-pew-poll-americans-want-keystone-pipeline-approved-by-more-than-two-to-one-margin-61-27/
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Mar 19, 2014 - 11:02pm PT
I was wrong..But close.. LNG is not at all a solution to the CO2 issue regarding usage in vehicles. It is significantly superior to coal however for elecrical generation.

The reaction for gasoline and LNG is Very similar and produces near identical co2/KG output.
Btu/KG of LNG is slightly higher than gasoline. 55MJ/KG vs 47MJ/KG about 15% BETTER


Thermal efficiency of LNG internal combustion motors and gasoline motors tops about near identically (I was surprised) at about 45% (although I am still suspicious of the median which I could not find info on)

Thus LNG can be a slightly better CO2 polluter than gasoline. It is not a huge difference however .. say max aprox 15% Not enough to "save the world" in anycase.

LNG IS much better regarding particulates and sulpher or nitrogen compounds.

I am not taking into account the carbon footprint of refining, packaging or transporting either fuel.
bluering

Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
Mar 20, 2014 - 12:38am PT
Just from a basic combustion point of view and a little knowledge of the needs for high temperature combustion points for efficiency in reciprocating engines..

I really doubt that Natural gas produces less C02 per unit of energy sent to the drive wheels of a vehicle.

I would almost be willing to bet natural gas is less CO2 efficient for transportation.

Just like ethanol is counterproductiove regarding total CO2 Emmisions for basically the same reasons.

I'll look into it more tonight and see if I can find some real info and not just natural gas propaganda (which I found a bunch of in like 30 seconds on google).


So are we assuming CO2 is a pollutant, and therefore, bad? We expel CO2. And plant life thrives on it.

They whole point of natural gas is IT NOT BURNING ALL THE OTHER POLLUTANTS that coal and gasoline do. CO2 is not the problem in this energy equation. It's the other by-products of the combustion process.
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Mar 20, 2014 - 12:41am PT
We disagree blue. Like anything it's about balance. CO2 is good and it is bad.. depending on the amounts and situation.

CO2 is the biggest long term threat to human life other than what it is directly derived from.. population growth.

It is unfortunate that you quoted my post from a couple days ago. I was wrong there.. learned a bit more about LNG (methane basically). It is a little better than gasoline regarding CO2 polution. And much better regarding other polutants.

Just remember for every smoggy day you SEE. There is at least 100 times more CO2 pollution you can't see.
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