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DrDeeg
Mountain climber
Mammoth Lakes, CA
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I want to emphasize that Ed Hartouni is correct. It’s too bad he has to continue to explain again and again.
We understand how radiative transfer between the surface and the atmosphere warms the atmosphere. We know from laboratory measurements how CO2 and other gases absorb infrared radiation in specific wavelengths, and we can calculate how their concentrations affect atmospheric temperature profiles.
We also agree that natural processes change climate, but in the period of record the known variability of solar radiation would affect climate about 1/10th as much as the CO2 has. Sulfate aerosols from coal combustion indeed cool climate, but their effect has not been enough to counteract CO2. The worry in the 1970s about global cooling was entirely legitimate. It and the conjectures about the climatic effects of nuclear war led to a lot of good work about scattering and absorption of radiation by the aerosols. We now know that sulfate aerosols and soot aerosols affect climate in different directions. Soot warms, both in the atmosphere and by getting into snow and ice and increasing the melt rate by increasing absorption of solar radiation.
Over the long term, regular variability in Earth’s orbit affects climate (causing the Ice Ages for example) but these variations have periods of 20,000-100,000 years and are insignificant in the last 1,000 years.
In climate science, we do consider and are really interested in uncertainties, and the current political “climate” makes it hard to soberly discuss them (as this forum has illustrated all too well). Some important ones to investigate and discuss are:
Regional variability – as Earth’s average temperature rises, some areas will warm more than others. Evidence is showing that the Arctic is warming more, particularly in winter.
Precipitation – more evaporation from a warmer ocean must mean more global precipitation. But atmospheric circulation will change, so some areas will likely become drier, like continental interiors. Some precipitation that currently falls as snow will likely be rain instead, so the snowpack “reservoir” will not hold as much water into the summer.
Sea level – in the last decade we have measured more rapid flow of tidewater glaciers into the sea, and spectacular breakoffs of Antarctic ice shelves have occurred. We have no data at all, yet, about the rate at which the ocean warms the bottoms of the ice shelves, because getting down to the ocean through 200-800 meters of ice is a hard problem.
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dirtbag
climber
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Yeah, what Dr. F said.
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bookworm
Social climber
Falls Church, VA
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luv ya, f
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2055191/Scientists-said-climate-change-sceptics-proved-wrong-accused-hiding-truth-colleague.html
here's a taste:
"‘This is nowhere near what the climate models were predicting,’ Prof Curry said. ‘Whatever it is that’s going on here, it doesn’t look like it’s being dominated by CO2.’ …
‘Of course this isn’t the end of scepticism,’ she said. ‘To say that is the biggest mistake he [Prof Muller] has made. When I saw he was saying that I just thought, “Oh my God”.’
In fact, she added, in the wake of the unexpected global warming standstill, many climate scientists who had previously rejected sceptics’ arguments were now taking them much more seriously.
They were finally addressing questions such as the influence of clouds, natural temperature cycles and solar radiation – as they should have done, she said, a long time ago."
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 4, 2011 - 01:03pm PT
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Perhaps the most showing about bookworm was when he posted an article about Global Warming. He thought the article backed his case that AWG wasn't happening. But the article, in a no nonsense, matter-of-fact conclusion stated that global warming was indeed happening and that its main cause was the burning of fossil fuels. It also stated that the rise in temperature was in line with the scientific predictions of climatologists.
I pointed out the articles conclusion to bookworm, but of course he didn't respond. Obviously he doesn't read what others post, doesn't read what he himself posts, and could care less what the science says. Because of this, I no longer read his posts.
It is simultaneously sad and scary that folks like this exist.
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yosemite 5.9
climber
santa cruz
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Here's a site that has a lot of information
http://www.john-daly.com/
also www.biocab.org
You can also read "35 Inconvenient Truths" at http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/
also www.spaceweather.com
and www.fathersforlife.org
Galileo knew that the center of gravity of our solar system moves around our sun in a pigtail pattern. This creates cycles of increasing and decreasing solar flares, about 13 years long. There is also a solar cycle about 100 years long. These cycles have combined in recent decades to increase solar activity. You can do your own research on solar flares on the web. It is fascinating. About 2012 or 2013 the trend is expected to reverse so that we will experience global cooling the rest of this century. It may take a few years to notice. I hope we don't waste money in the meantime. I am all for reducing poisonous emissions, but we are foolish if we don't consider solar cycles. I read the 2007 UN report and it devoted less than a page to solar activity. Go outside and feel the heat of the sun. Do your research and make up your own mind, I can only respectively suggest. In the 1970's some scientists thought we might soon be heading into another ice age. That didn't happen either. I don't know any better than you, but if you research this yourself you may find the media bandwagon about global warming is very superficial. If you want to just keep it quick and entertaining key in "solar flares" and be amazed at what has happened in the last few decades that we did not cause.
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corniss chopper
climber
breaking the speed of gravity
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Bruce Kay - send me all your money and I'll promise to shake some beads and do a chant or two and it'll solve all your global warming fears.
Swear to Allah!
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Feeling that you are in over your again, Corniss?
Don't have the basic intelligence to actually read and follow along?
So instead just post something simplistic and completely unrelated to what is being discussed.
Do you realize that every time you post, you just confirm to everyone how uniformed, one-sided, biased, and totally ignorant you really are?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Just to counterbalance that image of CC doing his clown dance, here's a new (to me) idea from this week's issue of Science: quantifying the ecological impacts of climate change velocity.
Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming. These indices give a complex mosaic of predicted range shifts and phenology changes that deviate from simple poleward migration and earlier springs or later falls. They also emphasize potential conservation concerns, because areas of high marine biodiversity often have greater velocities of climate change and seasonal shifts.
Burrows et al., "The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems."
Science 4 November 2011
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/334/6056/652.abstract
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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And in the same issue of Science, here's a paleoclimate piece of the climate-change-velocity puzzle.
The effects of climate change on biodiversity should depend in part on climate displacement rate (climate-change velocity) and its interaction with species’ capacity to migrate. We estimated Late Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate-change velocity by integrating macroclimatic shifts since the Last Glacial Maximum with topoclimatic gradients. Globally, areas with high velocities were associated with marked absences of small-ranged amphibians, mammals, and birds. The association between endemism and velocity was weakest in the highly vagile birds and strongest in the weakly dispersing amphibians, linking dispersal ability to extinction risk due to climate change. High velocity was also associated with low endemism at regional scales, especially in wet and aseasonal regions. Overall, we show that low-velocity areas are essential refuges for Earth’s many small-ranged species.
Sandel et al., "The influence of late Quaternary climate-change velocity on species endemism"
Science 4 November 2011
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/334/6056/660.abstract
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corniss chopper
climber
breaking the speed of gravity
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Ed - bottom line is you just want my money. Any attempt to tell a billion Chinese to stop burning coal for electricity is silly. Same for the
0.94Billion Indians. Or the Russians. Or us Americans.
If it makes you feel better to develop a device to suck the CO2 out of the air knock yourself out but don't ask me to finance it.
Your welcome to claim you've saved the world from CO2 at any time. I'll pretend to applaud. Why not make the pronouncement today and then move on to something that can actually be changed by humans?
cc
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dirtbag
climber
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Ed - bottom line is you just want my money.
what a dumfuKKK
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Feeling that you are in over your again, Corniss?
Don't have the basic intelligence to actually read and follow along?
So instead just post something simplistic and completely unrelated to what is being discussed.
Do you realize that every time you post, you just confirm to everyone how uniformed, one-sided, biased, and totally ignorant you really are?
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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ok, wait for Corniss to say something really stupid................
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corniss chopper
climber
breaking the speed of gravity
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Norton - your Fictitious Climate Change Induced Hate (FCCIH) can be cured if you just go outside once in awhile and see that the environment is doing just fine.
And people that build in flood plains have to pay the price for losing
the bet that it'll never rain hard enough to float their home
down the river.
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dirtbag
climber
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Norton - your Fictitious Climate Change Induced Hate (FCCIH) can be cured if you just go outside once in awhile and see that the environment is doing just fine.
what a dumfuKKK
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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yes, stunning
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corniss chopper
climber
breaking the speed of gravity
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dirtbag - your profane posts are evidence on an immature mind trying to express itself in the arena of ideas. Keep trying. One of these years you'll get a real opinion and we're all eager to hear it.
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
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Thanks Cornhole Chomper for posting something stupid...Again...!
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
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Whoa...! Wait just a minute...! It's snowing in the Sierra..! Proof that the climate isn't warming...! Thank God for analytical thinking and Rush Limbaugh......Otherwise we'd have to convert to green energy and hurt the economy......
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dirtbag
climber
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One of these years you'll get a real opinion and we're all eager to here it
In my opinion, you're a real dumfuKKK.
Now you've "hered" my opinion.
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