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the Fet
climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
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Jul 18, 2011 - 01:32pm PT
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where do your plots come from? please cite the papers.
I pulled the URL on the plot and came to this site. http://digitaldiatribes.wordpress.com/learn-about-joe/
So he is searching for sites that reinforce what he wants to hear.
From that site:
Who am I to present such things? I am an actuary. Have been for a couple of decades. I just have an interest in numbers and trends and such things. I enjoy putting together little models that project future results. It痴 a hobby. But my actuarial background does lend itself to data analysis and modeling procedures that are often used in insurance can be applied to temperature data sets to yield some interesting results.
I make no claims about being some kind of an expert in climatology or solar cycles. I just like to look at the numbers, pick out some things of interest, and present the results. I am often surprised by responses that I get from those who think that a mere presentation of actual data somehow suggests I have an agenda. Anyone who follows this blog knows that I present both short and long-term data trends. I have my own skepticism and ideas about the future, to be sure. I知 not afraid to offer those opinions. But I don稚 in any way massage the data to tell the story I want to tell. If trends warm, I値l show the warming. If trends cool, I値l show the cooling. I let others argue about what the results mean. For the official record, I have no dog in this fight other than that of an unfunded citizen who has an interest in such matters. My economic interest is no more than anyone else, and is from the perspective of hoping to avoid ridiculous taxation and government spending on matters of insignificance which we have somehow become convinced are significant.
Anyway, I do have a background of some University study in Chemistry and Physics. However, it was not my career of choice and I did not go on to get PhD or anything like that. I知 not a Doctor of the Sciences, a climatologist, or anything of the sort. I am not a statistician, and despite being an actuary, there are certain failings I have in that category as well. Any presentations I give on the numbers I state clearly what the assumptions are, so that I知 not making myself sound more knowledgable than I am. As I said, where I believe I can offer some insight is in digging into the data and applying some different modeling and weighting techniques.
This guy is probably a lot like to Chief, he thinks he has no agenda but then goes on to say "ridiculous taxation and government spending on matters of insignificance". So he does have an agenda.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jul 18, 2011 - 05:09pm PT
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Ed, you have the patience of a saint.
The latest posts from The Chief, CC, and Bookworm make it pretty evident to me that they don't read the stuff that anybody posts, or even the stuff that they themselves post.
If they see a paragraph or two that supports their preconceived ideas, then they use that as evidence that AWG is a hoax. Even if the conclusion of the pieces they reference state that AWG is indeed a serious threat.
I pointed such out to Bookworm a couple of months ago, and now The Chief cites several pieces that fully support the AWG case. As for CC, he continues to post pieces from "researchers" known to be funded by oil companies.
Still, thanks for your diligence. I've learned a lot because of it.
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dirtbag
climber
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Jul 18, 2011 - 05:17pm PT
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Yep, responding to those folks in any meaningful way is a huge waste of time.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Jul 18, 2011 - 08:54pm PT
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Yes, that is correct.
Just like I could do your job when you were in the service, Chief, unless I was fully trained to do your job, no matter how many years it might take.
You are entitled to your opinion, but recognize that your opinion is not based on substantiated facts from credible tested sources.
My opinion on many many things that I have only rudimentary surface knowledge about is not credible enough, so I yield to my medical doctor, or my auto mechanic, etc etc
And I do NOT consider my lack in in-depth knowledge to be a reflection upon my personally.
edit: just like I could NOT do your job
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jul 18, 2011 - 09:04pm PT
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The Chief, I think saying, "unless one can accurately read, ingest and then understand all the scientific papers on this issue, [one is] just plain ignorant and totally naive of the whole thing" is going a bit overboard.
You have read a lot on the subject, and with that you know a lot about it. You are not "totally naive" and you have reasons to have your opinions about it. Which is fine and expected.
And I think it's healthy to raise questions, state what you believe, and continue to read and learn.
That said, when experts in the field correct you on your misconceptions, it's time to stand up and listen. Ed has done us all a great service by being patient and carefully explaining things in layman's terms. Much like some of the other experts that have joined this discussion.
I learned from a friend that when you go to see a doctor, ask questions. He/she won't bother to detail many of the things they know because they are either too busy or figure you're not interested. For this reason, I think it's great that you've pushed as hard as you have with your beliefs--look at all the in-depth info it's surfaced.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jul 18, 2011 - 09:13pm PT
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"as a policy decision, the elected government decides, the Executive branch and the Legislative branch are both involved, and both of those bodies are representatives of the people
the intelligence, however, is a part of the Executive branch whose mission is to supply information to the policy makers"
Now Ed is talking about a different Universe, for sure.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Jul 18, 2011 - 09:21pm PT
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Yes, Chief you are correct.
99.9999% of the people on earth could not do YOUR job, Chief.
And YES, 99.99% of people on earth are NOT educated, trained many years, accredited, in the Scientific Method.
As such, they can have their opinion, however it carries virtually no credibility unless it is peer reviewed, tested, and totally examined by like field accredited experts.
That IS correct.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Jul 18, 2011 - 10:00pm PT
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Chief, this is NOT a United States "initiative", as you seem to assume.
Thus, the US is NOT going to demand that other nations "go along".
This is an international examination, with scientists all over the world.
These scientists can only present their findings to the international body established to examine the legitimacy of such findings.
Where do you extrapolate that the United States has the authority to set laws that all
nations will have to follow, or somehow or else?
We are a LONG LONG way from any kind of agreement on what to, or what NOT, to do.
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dirtbag
climber
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Jul 18, 2011 - 10:09pm PT
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That's not the scientists' job.
Ya'll act as if all this data will motivate the entire world's govt's to come to a screaching, stop their daily economic struggles, and apply every last penny they have to fix this.
Yeah, every last penny. Right
Blow harder Chief, blow harder.
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dirtbag
climber
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Jul 18, 2011 - 10:17pm PT
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You tell the folks that are dependent on their monthly SS or Medicare check that they will no longer be getting one so the US Govt can start funding all these "fix the AGW" programs.
Now who's buying into hysteria?
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Jul 18, 2011 - 10:24pm PT
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1940 movie "Reefer Madness' revisited now in 2011.
If you smoke one reefer, you WILL be a heroin addict.
From this extremist logic, the Chief extrapolates:
If the US defaults on its debt and the SS checks don't go out, then FOR SURE it follows that politicians will be HANGED, and BILLIONS of dollars will somehow be necessary to be spent.
Chief, that is contorted logic.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Jul 18, 2011 - 10:27pm PT
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Cut the crap, Chief.
You know damn well that the US treasury has already taken in over two TRILLION in income tax this year, and the interest to the US bondholders is only 250 billion.
We can EASILY pay the bond holders, you know this from your in-depth knowledge of
the cash flow of US treasury.
Because no way would you just make up a non fact based scenario to sell fear, would you?
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corniss chopper
climber
breaking the speed of gravity
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Jul 19, 2011 - 12:13am PT
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Chief - I've got a hunch the cut's will be organ transplants and hospital
bed occupancy rates. That's where the big money goes.
Woe to the transplant surgeons falling on hard times.
BTW - if global warming was true it would be raining and not
snowing in Aus.
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
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Jul 19, 2011 - 12:15am PT
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Yeah Corniss...put another shrimp on the barbie numbskull...!
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
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Jul 19, 2011 - 12:17am PT
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The Chief....why do you keep pretending you kow anything about AGW...You've spent most of your life at sea...on water...not on land where weather happens...knock it off...don't make me drive down to bishop...
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corniss chopper
climber
breaking the speed of gravity
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Jul 19, 2011 - 12:20am PT
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That's right Mr Putrefaction. Your ilk now call it climate disruption.
Another of your weasel terms for weather.
Lets review again how much of your disposable income are you willing to give to Climate Anti-disruptionists to fix the weather?
None?
All?
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corniss chopper
climber
breaking the speed of gravity
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Jul 19, 2011 - 01:36am PT
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Dianne told us so it must be true.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Global Warming Alarmist Senator Gets Schooled
Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) in February 2005:
"Global warming will only tighten water supplies further. Essentially,
warmer weather will mean more rain and less snow. This will reduce our
snow pack, meaning that there is less water trapped and available in
spring runoff. Consider a recent report on California water and global
warming: The report found that Global Warming could shrink the State's
snow pack by an amount greater than the annual water consumption of
Southern California's 16 million people."
Just six years later from the AP on March 22, 2011:
Near-record Sierra snow good news to parched California. More than 61 feet
of snow has fallen in the Sierra high country so far this season, second
only to the 1950-51 season when a total of 65 feet fell, according to
records kept by the California Department of Transportation. While spring
has arrived, the Sierra typically gets some snow in April, bringing the
prospect of an all-time record. "I'm out plowing driveways, and we can't
even find the houses," said Norm Sayler, who used to run Donner Ski Ranch
along Interstate 80 and now operates a snow-plowing business near the top
of Donner Summit. "I've been up here since 1954, and personally this has
been the toughest winter I've ever had here."
Posted by Yossarian at 11:09 AM
http://www.dailybrisk.com/2011/03/global-warming-alarmist-senator-gets.html
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jul 19, 2011 - 02:00am PT
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Oh good, if they cut the AWG funding, the problem will just go away!
That's because the problem is obviously an economic problem. Like, if we had enough money, there would be no AWG to begin with.
Brilliant solution!!
CC, you from the shallow end of the gene poll, ain't cha?
{I've got fungus in my bathroom that that has more reasoning power than these blokes...}
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