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Lennox
climber
just southwest of the center of the universe
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Jul 16, 2011 - 03:27am PT
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Thanks Bruce, I'll watch my six. But between the eastside granite, the encouragement of his enabling psycho-therapist, and the SuperTopo AGW mind-control cabal, The Chief has his hands pretty full.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jul 16, 2011 - 11:29am PT
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... throwing you AGW dudes curve balls here on this thread as much as I can.
Maybe I don't remember every "curve ball," but I don't believe The Chief (or cc for that matter) has thrown a single ball that hasn't been knocked out of the park by the folks in this thread with real knowledge of the Climate Change science.
How about it The Chief, can you think of one of your curve balls that was actually a strike?
But I'll say this: each ball he's thrown has unearthed excellent counter arguments. And because of that, this thread has continued to contain some great content.
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bluering
Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
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Jul 16, 2011 - 01:09pm PT
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How about it The Chief, can you think of one of your curve balls that was actually a strike?
The sun.
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corniss chopper
climber
breaking the speed of gravity
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Jul 16, 2011 - 02:38pm PT
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Think of all this alarmism this way. Not that long ago, high priests /
kings / authority figures used alarmism to scare people into sacrificing
humans to appease the "gods" to make sure the crops would grow, the sun
would shine, and the rains would fall. Today we know this was all a bunch
of "bunk". A lot of people died for nothing.
Now, some authority figures want you to "sacrifice" your hard earned
dollars to appease their "gods" and make sure the earth won't get any
warmer. Have you already forgotten in the 1970's, they wanted your money
to stop the earth from getting colder?
Ask yourself..."Has the earths temperature ever changed in the past?" Do
you realize there have been several ice ages and subsequent warming
periods? All happening with out the presence of man. Are we in a warming
period or a cooling period?
Now I want you to name one thing that NEVER changes over time. One thing.
Have you thought of anything yet? Is change part of the natural flow of
life on this planet?
Now these alarmists want you to believe that life as we know it will come
to an end if the global temperature rises a part of a degree. Global
temperatures have changed a lot over the last few million years, and yet
life goes on. The alarmists want you to believe that man is the cause and
must become the solution. Why do suppose they want you to believe that man
is the problem? Do they want you to make a sacrifice? Taxes?
Keep in mind, current scientists have a hard time predicting what the
weather will be in your town next week, but yet they want you to believe
they can globally predict a fractional degree change in temperature
50 yrs from now?
http://www.tamaracksheep.com/global%20warming.htm
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Curious muddy ski tracks after a dust storm and a new snow fall at this resort.
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the Fet
climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
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Jul 16, 2011 - 03:08pm PT
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Thanks to the deniers. They have really kept this thread going and I have learned a lot from other posters responding to them.
I first really learned about agw in a college science class. The instructor really made a point about how complex the climate is, the feedback mechanisms, and how to think for youseld about all of it. So its funny when I hear the half truths, cherry picking, strawmen, and mixing up of policy and science from the denialists, and they are SO convinced they are right.
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corniss chopper
climber
breaking the speed of gravity
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Jul 16, 2011 - 03:20pm PT
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Fet - I also find it funny when I hear the half truths, cherry picking, straw men, embarrassing mix of policy and opinion from the Warmists.
They are SO convinced that CO2 is the bogeyman.
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PeterC
Trad climber
CA
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Jul 16, 2011 - 03:21pm PT
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Hi all, I’ve been hesitant to post here because it seems like debate seldom changes peoples’ minds, but here we go. I am actually a climate scientist and I’m constantly surprised and disappointed by public perception of climate change. Instead of sticking to the basic science – which I think everyone can understand and agree on – the debate continually pinwheels off into political conspiracy theories or scientific minutiae that don’t really matter for the big picture.
Here’s how I see it: there are 3 independent and basic lines of reasoning that all say humans are warming the planet. You may be able to argue for a while about one of them, but when you look at all of them together I think you’d have to be totally irrational to not accept the possibility that we may be warming our planet. Here are the 3 pillars:
1. Theory: that CO2 traps heat is basic physics, known for over a hundred years. You could actually do an experiment in your garage to test this if you don’t believe. Now think about all the gas you put in your car each month. Think of all the fossil fuel everyone on earth burns through each month. Conservation of mass is working here - all those gallons are being converted to gases (mostly CO2). You can see the resulting increase in atmospheric CO2 in a variety of instrumental datasets going back for decades. CO2 increase and its heat-trapping effects are undeniable truths. If you have any faith at all in science or even in basic logic you can’t deny that we are warming our planet.
If the amount of warming was directly proportional to the amount of CO2 we put into the atmosphere this would be the end of the story. Warming would be significant and we’d all be screwed. But warming causes all sorts of nonlinear feedbacks that affect just how much warming we will see. It is only in the magnitude of these feedbacks (particularly cloud response) that there is any uncertainty. From a scientific perspective, climate change denialists are basically arguing that there is some undiscovered yet massive stabilizing feedback that prevents CO2-induced warming from causing much of a rise in temperature. I can’t say they’re wrong, but I think at this point the chances of such a feedback existing is lower than the probability of drawing 4 consecutive aces in a card game.
2. Observations: Even putting theory aside, we can still see that global warming is happening. Global-average temperature has been rising steadily for the last several decades. The rate of recent warming is unprecedented (compared to ice-core records) – if this is natural variability, it is a kind of variability we’ve never seen before. We find unprecedented warming regardless of whether we look at satellite records or surface observations. There is a lot of talk about certain datasets that don’t show warming, but these have been clearly disproven in peer-reviewed journals (a fact that denialists ignore, eroding their credibility). There is also talk of data corruption by urban heat islands and other causes and even of a conspiracy to make warming look more dire (“climategate”), but if you compare the “bad” data to other datasets, you get similar answers – the only uncertainty is in the exact degree of warming we’ve seen, not in whether it is happening.
3.Modeling: Climate simulations reproduce observed warming very well when CO2 change is included. Without CO2 changes, they predict the temperature to stay at pre-industrial levels. Runs where orbital variations or other possible explanations are included are unable to reproduce the current warming. You could argue that climate models have problems… and you’d be right if we were trying to predict how rainfall in the Valley will change 50 yrs from now. But these models definitely get the basics right and the physics controlling global warming are definitely in the scope of their capabilities. Dismissing them because they don’t get every detail right is like dismissing all supertopo descriptions because a 1” crack is labeled as 2” in some topo.
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the Fet
climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
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Jul 16, 2011 - 03:29pm PT
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They are SO convinced that CO2 is the bogeyman.
NO. That's just what you need to tell yourself.
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the Fet
climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
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Jul 16, 2011 - 03:47pm PT
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Great post peter
You were probably composing that when I posted just before yours and it goes right to my point. If you can set aside politics and policy and what we should do about it and just look a whether agw is happening or not its hard to deny it is happening. Of course unless you can't keep it separate.
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corniss chopper
climber
breaking the speed of gravity
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Jul 16, 2011 - 03:47pm PT
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Fet - So the real authoritarian raises his voice. Dictating to others how to think. I know that comes naturally to Liberals which is why you
earn the one finger wave off. Busybodies.
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Is the Western Climate Establishment Corrupt? The public might not understand the science, but they do understand cheating
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/corruption/climate-corruption.pdf
Anthony Watts2, a 25-year broadcast meteorology veteran, recruited 650 volunteers to inspect and document the 1,221 land-based thermometers overseen by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the USA.3 Of the 860 thermometers inspected by early 2009, 89% fail to meet the official siting requirements because they are too close to an artificial source of heat (including artificial sources of reflected or radiated heat).
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Dust storms implicated in Colorado avalanches
Posted on October 10, 2010 by Bob Berwyn
‘… A massive shift in the amount of energy being absorbed by the snow’
http://summitcountyvoice.com/2010/10/10/dust-storms-implicated-in-colorado-avalanches/
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corniss chopper
climber
breaking the speed of gravity
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Jul 16, 2011 - 05:13pm PT
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We've won this war Chief. If the usual AGW suspects come back and say they're sorry I'll forgive 'em. It'll show they have good hearts.
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
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Jul 16, 2011 - 05:51pm PT
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Corniss..." we've won this war chief "....as the polar caps disappear and homes on the Malibu coast slowly lose their front yards...mission accomplished...
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
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Jul 16, 2011 - 05:53pm PT
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Chief...After reading your fact free rants i understand what the petty in your former job description indicates...
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jul 16, 2011 - 09:38pm PT
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We've won this war Chief.
This is hilarious. Especially after PeterC's post.
I see The Chief has declined to list any of his curve balls that he thought were strikes. I wonder why, you'd think he'd relish the chance to trot out his "winners."
Sometimes I can understand ignorance. Other times it astounds me.
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the Fet
climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
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Jul 16, 2011 - 09:49pm PT
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Jul 16, 2011 - 12:47pm PT
Fet - So the real authoritarian raises his voice. Dictating to others how to think. I know that comes naturally to Liberals which is why you
earn the one finger wave off. Busybodies.
CC I'm a centrist. It the far left and far right (eg you) who have demonstrated they can't think for them
Selves. You are just like the far left you despise. Ideology over reason and pragmaticism.
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dirtbag
climber
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Jul 17, 2011 - 01:04am PT
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There is absolutely nothing logical about AGW. It's all theory. Nothing more.
So, why should anyone attempt to argue logically.
This whole AGW gig is based a one sided coin. And it just keeps on flipping.
Since 1998, the Southern Hemisphere has been cooling (according to HADCru, NCDC) and nothing is said about that fact.
And this Coincidence?
"- The graph clearly shows that there is a step up in the mean coincident with the sudden loss of over half the sampling sites around 1990.
-A very similar station count graph is posted at the GISS website. It is taken, in turn from a 1997 paper by Peterson and Vose. However that station count is smaller by about two-thirds. The GISS data (or GHCN) removes duplicates, records with insufficient continuity, etc. The resulting station count graph looks almost the same though,
As early as 1991, there was evidence that station closure beginning in the 1970s had added a permanent upward bias to the global average temperature. Willmott, Robeson and Feddema ("Influence of Spatially Variable Instrument Networks on Climatic Averages, Geophysical Research Letters vol 18 No. 12, pp2249-2251, Dec 1991) calculated a +0.2C bias in the global average due to pre-1990 station closures."
http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/nvst.html
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the Fet
climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
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Jul 17, 2011 - 02:37am PT
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Since 1998, the Southern Hemisphere has been cooling
Just look at the 2nd graph you posted. 1998 was a highly spiked record. Why start the top graph at that point I wonder? Classic cherry picking to avoid the longer time frame that clearly shows warming.
Come on you've got to do better than that!
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jul 17, 2011 - 11:09am PT
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Remember, everything isn't always as it might seem. -- The Chief
You mean you're really a nice gal who likes to knit and not just a blow-hard arrogant bastard?
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jul 17, 2011 - 11:36am PT
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Say The Chief. I'm gonna eat my hat and kiss the ground if in the next year or two all this AWG "BS" blows over and all the scientists are proved wrong. I will apologize to you personally and will attempt to make amends, because I am capable of admitting that I am wrong.
On the other hand ...
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SuperTopo on the Web
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Let us know!