Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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bluering

Trad climber

Santa Clara, CA

Jul 14, 2011 - 12:43am PT

http://www.aip.org/pnu/2003/split/642-2.html

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/10/031002055621.htm

corniss chopper

climber

breaking the speed of gravity

Jul 14, 2011 - 01:26am PT

A Problem With Wind Power

In 1998, Norway commissioned a study of wind power in Denmark and concluded
that it has "serious environmental effects, insufficient production, and
high production costs."

Denmark (population 5.3 million) has over 6,000 turbines that produced
electricity equal to 19% of what the country used in 2002. Yet no
conventional power plant has been shut down. Because of the intermittency
and variability of the wind, conventional power plants must be kept running
at full capacity to meet the actual demand for electricity. Most cannot
simply be turned on and off as the wind dies and rises, and the quick
ramping up and down of those that can be would actually increase their
output of pollution and carbon dioxide (the primary "greenhouse" gas). So
when the wind is blowing just right for the turbines, the power they
generate is usually a surplus and sold to other countries at an extremely
discounted price, or the turbines are simply shut off.

http://www.aweo.org/problemwithwind.html#I

Dropline

Mountain climber

Somewhere Up There

Jul 14, 2011 - 09:46am PT

A major American utility is shelving the nation’s most prominent effort to capture carbon dioxide from an existing coal-burning power plant, dealing a severe blow to efforts to rein in emissions responsible for global warming.

Full story here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/14/business/energy-environment/utility-shelves-plan-to-capture-carbon-dioxide.html?hp

Chiloe

Trad climber

Lee, NH

Jul 14, 2011 - 11:21am PT

Chiloe, I made several attempts to transfer the Slides to a scanable presentation. I can't. This has motivated me to take them down to Bishop tomorrow and have them processed.

Just the huge melt ponds you saw at the South Pole, that's all I questioned. The South Pole, south from Byrd Station, latitude 90 S.

Chiloe

Trad climber

Lee, NH

Jul 14, 2011 - 11:46am PT

Amundson-Scott, you saw huge melt ponds there?

Chiloe

Trad climber

Lee, NH

Jul 14, 2011 - 12:18pm PT

according to of McIntyre at the UKMet

McIntyre is not a climatologist and does not work at the UKMet. He's a blogger who works for the mining industry. The "no warming since 1998" has been debunked by just about anybody who can run a regression.

The Amundsen-Scott Station is located at the South Pole.

Yup. Huge melt ponds, coming up?

k-man

Gym climber

SCruz

Topic Author's Reply - Jul 14, 2011 - 01:33pm PT

There has been absolutely ZERO increase in the warming trend since 1998. NONE!

Look out! We have a real savant on our hands here.

Chiloe

Trad climber

Lee, NH

Jul 14, 2011 - 02:00pm PT

It's not warming any longer. Boink!

Facts can't get through Chief's wall of self-certainty. But for other readers who do grok statistics, here's a nice simple-but-not-too-simple breakdown of what real temperature data show. There have been many such breakdowns because the "no warming since 1998" fakery lives eternal on blogs. This particular author, a statistician, also takes into account solar, El Nino and volcanic forcing.
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/01/20/how-fast-is-earth-warming/

But he leads off with a simple, unadjusted graph showing how well the five major temperature records agree (their vertical offset just reflects different baselines).

k-man

Gym climber

SCruz

Topic Author's Reply - Jul 14, 2011 - 02:02pm PT

Thanks Chiloe, There are folks here who listen and try to understand.

dirtbag

climber

Jul 14, 2011 - 02:05pm PT

It's not warming any longer. Boink!

Based on a bit more than a decade. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

You're really outdoing yourself this time Chief.

Pssst...

I'm laughing at you.

Oh, then there is this gem of a classic Chief self-contradiction:

CHIEF:
What are you all gonna say in 20 or 30 or 40 or 50 years when the warming trend is no longer?

WESCHRIST:
So now you are able to predict the climate 30 years from now with confidence?

CHIEF'S RESPONSE:

idiot

I am doing nothing of sort. But you and the IPCC are. Thus you just called yourself and "idiot".

Poor chap doesn't even know WTF he's saying himself.

Chiloe

Trad climber

Lee, NH

Jul 14, 2011 - 02:18pm PT

More specifically addressing the "no warming since 1998" fallacy, the same statistician wrote this follow-up.
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/01/21/phil-jones-was-wrong/

For the statistically curious, I've copied his key figure below. This curve does not show temperature but rather the slope of the trend in temperature anomalies as a function of what year you cherry-pick as the start. The trends center around average warming of +0.02 degrees C/year, after adjustment for El Nino, volcanoes and solar cycles. But as you get shorter and shorter time series (move the starting cherry-pick closer to the present) you'll see that less data gets used and the confidence bands start to get much wider. Eventually there's so little data that the slope becomes "not statistically significant," although it's still just about the same slope. Gullible readers who know nothing about statistics then can be told "not significant, that means there's no warming!"

Chiloe

Trad climber

Lee, NH

Jul 14, 2011 - 02:59pm PT

Public belief doesn't make the science truer, or less true. But the claim that public belief has fallen radically doesn't look true to me either.

It's just statewide, but this is the best tracking poll I know of, most recently done last month.

Chiloe

Trad climber

Lee, NH

Jul 14, 2011 - 03:15pm PT

Chief, you can't read graphs, but if you could, you'd see that the first figure I posted shows all five temperature indexes, with similar and statistically significant increases.

Here, try again.

bobinc

Trad climber

Portland, Or

Jul 14, 2011 - 03:18pm PT

Chiloe, that's data from the Live Free or Die state?

Also, are you writing a new stata concordance for v.11? Maybe you could comp Chief a copy along with a software license so he could run it on his Commodore 64.

Chiloe

Trad climber

Lee, NH

Jul 14, 2011 - 03:21pm PT

are you writing a new stata concordance for v.11

Nope, they're after me to write v.12.

dirtbag

climber

Jul 14, 2011 - 03:23pm PT

Only TWO (GISS & NCDC) of the FIVE in your posted graph CHILOE, show an increase in temps since 1998.

Yur gonna now state that ALL FIVE indicate an increase in temps since 1998???

You really don't know how to read a graph, do you?