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tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Mar 11, 2016 - 10:48am PT
When the global economy bounces back those rigs will cycle back on again.

Most analysts are saying that the era of >$100/Bbl oil is over never to return. The future is more likely to be < $40/Bbl oil with transient excursions up to $50-$60/Bbl range. Under these conditions, the smaller independent oil companies in the US that were heavily invested in unconventional fracking are going bust.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Mar 11, 2016 - 11:02am PT
Some companies are going out of business because the "boom" is over...that doesn't mean those wells are gone. They will just get scooped up by the surviving companies.

Exactly, HDDJ. They're just waiting for prices to rise.

Most analysts are saying that the era of >$100/Bbl oil is over never to return. The future is more likely to be < $40/Bbl oil with transient excursions up to $50-$60/Bbl range. Under these conditions, the smaller independent oil companies in the US that were heavily invested in unconventional fracking are going bust.

I find the statement "never to return" highly unlikely, but in any case, it represents a stunning pirouette from the "peak oil" scenarios popular in the non-economist world (and the OT threads of ST) not so long ago.

John
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Mar 11, 2016 - 11:22am PT
Here's the latest news from the International Energy Agency...

http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/news/2016/march/iea-releases-oil-market-report-for-march.html

IEA releases Oil Market Report for March

Estimate of decline in non-OPEC output for 2016 is cut by 12%

11 March 2016

Global oil supplies eased by 180 000 barrels per day (180 kb/d) in February, to 96.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), on lower OPEC and non-OPEC output, the newly released IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for March informs subscribers. But production stood 1.8 mb/d above a year earlier, as a slight decline in non-OPEC was more than offset by OPEC gains. Non-OPEC production in 2016 is estimated to fall by 750 kb/d, to 57.0 mb/d, 100 kb/d less than foreseen in last month’s Report. 


OPEC crude oil production eased by 90 kb/d in February to a still-robust 32.61 mb/d with losses from Iraq, Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates partly offset by a substantial rise in flows from post-sanctions Iran. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, held supplies steady.

Sharp decelerations in demand growth – particularly in the United States and China – pulled global growth down to a one-year low of 1.2 mb/d in the fourth quarter of last year compared with the year earlier, dramatically below the near five-year high of 2.3 mb/d in the previous quarter. A gain of around 1.2 mb/d is forecast for 2016. 


OECD commercial inventories gained 20.2 mb in January while forward demand cover remained comfortable at 32.7 days. Preliminary data suggest that in February, OECD inventories drew for the first time in a year while volumes of crude held in floating storage increased. 


Global refinery throughputs are estimated at 79.1 mb/d in the current quarter, reflecting weak OECD refinery throughput and a shift of peak spring maintenance to this quarter. Annual growth in the fourth quarter of last year fell to below 1 mb/d amid product stock builds and in line with a slowdown in global oil demand growth. 


The March OMR examines in-depth the proposed offer by Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Qatar and Russia to freeze production at January levels and also features a focus on the changing nature of second-quarter oil demand particularly as non-OECD consumers rise in prominence.

wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Mar 11, 2016 - 12:00pm PT
Ok,So I am Completely wrong on this.

I mean you said so ,Frackers are putting Frackers out of business.

It must mean we will have 2 dollar a gallon gas or less if we completely stop fracking.

Right?

I mean ,for whatever reason,gas will never go up again.

Right?

[the premise of my totally wrong statement]
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Mar 11, 2016 - 01:26pm PT
Is the Washington Post flip flopping? LOL.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/10/5-times-hillary-clinton-has-played-fast-and-loose-with-the-facts-on-bernie-sanderss-record/?tid=sm_fb
pyro

Big Wall climber
Calabasas
Mar 11, 2016 - 02:09pm PT
. The case that OPEC has put frackers out of business is nonsense. Frackers put frackers out of business, but in the process have crippled the economies of OPEC.

so True
lot's of my FRIENDS work oil and Yep they are selling the LOW Depth Platforms Gulf Coast..


edit:
That Is Effing FUNNY
Norton,I like cheap gas myself.

When OPEC puts most of the frackers out of business ,What do you think will happen?


BTW; This is happening.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Mar 11, 2016 - 02:52pm PT
The case that OPEC has put frackers out of business is nonsense. Frackers put frackers out of business, but in the process have crippled the economies of OPEC.

The Saudis are the only country capable of rapidly turning on or off ~2M Bbls/day production at will. For primarily geopolitical purposes (e.g., Iran & Russia) they have decided to not reduce production. This decision has had the added benefit that the Frackers are being driven out of business. Iran will start adding production that will continue to keep oil prices low.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Mar 11, 2016 - 03:08pm PT
It would have made more sense to invade and occupy Saudi Arabia in 2003 rather than Iraq. Last I checked most of the 9/11 hijackers were Saudi. They were beheading political prisoners way before ISIS.
Larry Nelson

Social climber
Mar 11, 2016 - 04:22pm PT
As I understand it, much of the reason for the oil glut is reduced demand from China. Their economy is tanking, but nobody knows by how much. This has reverberated around the world.

In addition, the Saudi's have ramped up production for their own agenda...squeeze Russia, Iran or the frackers. Lots of extra oil out there and as John E implies, a far cry from the peak oil hysteria of just a few years ago.

I understand that the Saudi's oil is such high quality that < $20/ barrel still brings a profit. Much higher for the other sources, especially fracking. The laws of supply and demand are now biting the oil sector of the economy. It's good to an extent, but now many high paying jobs are gone and those parts of our economy are sucking wind.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Mar 11, 2016 - 04:41pm PT
Saudi oil production break even cost is ~ $5 Bbl. However, to reverse their budget deficit they need >$100 Bbl oil. They are desperately seeking loans to the tune of Billions of $$$

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/651875/Saudi-Arabia-now-BEGGING-for-billions-in-loans-as-oil-crash-leaves-economy-in-tatters
healyje

Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
Mar 12, 2016 - 12:50am PT
The Saudis aren't stupid, it's short term pain for longer term gain - they'll keep the spigots on and encourage everyone else to do the same until the U.S. domestic production infrastructure is shutdown to the point people get out of the business. At that point it's hard to just throw a switch and turn it back on.
HighDesertDJ

Trad climber
Mar 12, 2016 - 10:17am PT
John posted
Ken, I'm afraid your partisan view makes a meaningful response too difficult, because we can't even agree on facts. You allege that there were no classified emails on her private server. McClatchy, not exactly conservative or pro-Republican, says there were at least 2,079.

How many of those were classified when she sent them?
Norton

Social climber
Mar 12, 2016 - 10:31am PT
How many of those were classified when she sent them?

none?

or at worst very few?

but the important concept is the political rights' fixation in trying, trying, so damn hard
to find some evidence of weakness in Mrs. Clinton's "character", her honesty, ethics,
so as to confirm to their base that their indignation, anger, is not imaginary

because one real good, time proven way to get the Repub base voter to actually vote
is to stroke their emotions against, always against the Dems


tell me, what has the Republican party delivered to their base say in the last 10 years?
WBraun

climber
Mar 12, 2016 - 10:45am PT
Definitely the most brainwashed American period.

And has nothing to do with Republicans or democrats .....
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Mar 12, 2016 - 11:45am PT
After all his hate speeches against Mexicans, Muslims, and just about anyone or any group who doesn't agree with him, Trump is calling on "Communist friend Bernie" to stop inciting riots...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-chicago-clashes-bernie-sanders_us_56e4655be4b065e2e3d630ad

EDIT: Bernie's response "Trump is a pathological liar"

Who do you trust?
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Mar 12, 2016 - 03:27pm PT
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/how-bernie-sanders-supporters-shut-down-donald-trump-rally-chicago
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Mar 12, 2016 - 03:59pm PT

The protestors may have been Bernie supporters, but as Seitz-Wald's article says...
Sanders’ campaign was not involved with the protest
MisterE

Gym climber
Small Town with a Big Back Yard
Mar 12, 2016 - 09:56pm PT
Been gone a few daze - Polar divisions are becoming readily apparent!

Huh! Who woulda thunk?
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Mar 12, 2016 - 10:17pm PT
Ken, I'm afraid your partisan view makes a meaningful response too difficult, because we can't even agree on facts. You allege that there were no classified emails on her private server. McClatchy, not exactly conservative or pro-Republican, says there were at least 2,079.

As I understand it, she is not alleged to have sent any. The allegation is whether she received any. As I also understand it, she received none, but just as happened to Colin Powell last week, they RETROACTIVELY classified a bunch. Powell disagrees with the decision, and says he can't see anything classified there at all.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/04/politics/hillary-clinton-email-classified-colin-powell-condoleezza-rice/

Powell noted that point in a statement on Thursday.

"The State Department cannot now say they were classified then because they weren't," Powell said. "If the Department wishes to say a dozen years later they should have been classified that is an opinion of the Department that I do not share."

"I have reviewed the messages and I do not see what makes them classified," Powell said.
healyje

Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
Mar 12, 2016 - 10:57pm PT
The benghazi thing, the email server - total non-issues.
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