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JLP
Social climber
Fargo, MN
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Dec 19, 2006 - 09:55pm PT
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Right - no margin. What are you disagreeing with? You're only reinforcing my point by suggesting these guys has no chance to begin with.
"No such facts indicate that is the case so far."
Yes they do. They basically called off the search after seeing picures of their nakedness and the slowness of their progress on the sundial. Pretty much a done deal on that one. Chopper's been parked.
Consider this - Twight could have gone up there with 2 dinner forks and a G-string, and been back for an early dinner Friday. These guys, for the same reason, had they gotten on an easier route more in line with their abilities, might also be there with him to talk about it all. Margin.
JLP
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JuanDeFuca
Big Wall climber
Stoney Point
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Dec 19, 2006 - 10:41pm PT
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IMHO it was not a good idea to attempt the route with the weather pattern that had developed. Was the Avalanche danger not severe when they started the route?
JDF
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Lambone
Ice climber
Ashland, Or
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Dec 19, 2006 - 11:58pm PT
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no, not really severe when they stared, probably moderate to low.
you're right, pretty short weather window though, not much magin for error or delay.
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JuanDeFuca
Big Wall climber
Stoney Point
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Dec 20, 2006 - 12:07am PT
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Was Nov not the wettest month in your History?
I thought you guys had 30 days of rain?
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Lambone
Ice climber
Ashland, Or
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Dec 20, 2006 - 12:12am PT
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yeah but the snowpack settles quickly up here, and the temps were pretty consistant. that's said I plan to do the route in drier conditions someday.
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mthoodrescuehope
Social climber
nyc,ny
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Dec 20, 2006 - 12:21am PT
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as i asked/commented further upthread...
i'd like to revisit the question or inquiry because it seems natural that we now talk about the unfortunate state or likelihood that these two men have perished.
now, again can anyone comment on the next stage/phase of a SAR operation; has anyone been involved in such a scenario where the lost individuals have not been found; at a point which we agree that we have committed to a full and exhaustive job, however (unfortunate) found very little that we would have hoped for?
before you guys strike me down/call me out, as some do here, please read this and tell me where you think the investigation/SAR operation will turn.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2003484751_webclimbers19.html
"We are approaching that time when we have to make serious consideration whether we are spinning our wheels," Sheriff Joe Wampler, who is overseeing the search-and-rescue, said today.
The scheriff put it more bluntly than I would have cared to, even here, online behind a screen & computer.
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Lambone
Ice climber
Ashland, Or
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Dec 20, 2006 - 12:25am PT
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They will probably grid search the probable decsent route with a small team until the next storm comes in in a day or so and then call it.
it's pretty much a lost cause, they may or may not be found next spring. Keep in mind they could be deep in a crevase or under 40 feet of avalanche debris.
It is unfortunae that the family will not have their remains to find complete closure. I feel for them.
At the same time I know many climbers would chose to remain on mountain where they met their fate.
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Klimmer
Mountain climber
San Diego
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Dec 20, 2006 - 12:51am PT
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Yes, agree we will all know so much more about this very sad tragedy when R&I, Climbing Mag, and the AAC's Accidents in NA cover it from head to tail, and back again.
I'm just saying when things happen like this it is an important time of reflection for all of us to ask the question "What would I have done?" I agree from what seems to be known at this time the window for good weather was too narrow, and the storm came on fast. We can all second guess that decision. I will wait for the investigative articles to hash all that out. I don't want to make judgements at this time.
I feel very sad for the families and send positive thoughts of love, comfort, and peace their way. To have this happen just before Christmas makes this even more tragic and sad.
I do know I will carry technology (everyone must make their own choice), not as a crutch, or a first line of defense, it never should be used like that. But it is a last resort when the preverbial pooh-pooh hits the fan, and there is no other way safely to end a very serious situation. Then you break the glass, pull the alarm, and call for help.
Here are 2 other examples of proper use for GPS, Cell phone, and Satellite phone that I use right now. Let's say I'm doing first ascents in a "J-Tree" like new remote region in the mountains that entails a long 4X4 drive to get to and there is absolutely no cell coverage? We have everything we need to safely be there for a long period of time, and our families and some friends know exactly where we are (but have been sworn to secrecy or else!). But what if one of us gets injured in an accident, and the injuries are life theatening? Without the Satellite phone it could end in death. But with the Satellite phone we have the potential to make the best of a really bad situation. We are going to do everything we can to take care of the situation on our own, and get to safe ground and in the open, and then we are calling 911 for help to get a helicopter in there ASAP. We can tell them exactly where we are and what exactly the situation is. This is proper use of the technology.
Then there are times when my family and I are way off the beaten track in the Mojave Desert, rock & mineral collecting and once again we are prepared fully, yet there is absolutely no cell coverage. What if anyone in my family got seriously hurt or bitten by a rattlesnake and their life is in danger? I'm pulling that Satellite phone out ASAP and calling in the Calvary, without hesitation, and giving them exact coordinates to get there.
Since the government has turned-off the selective GPS signal, a good GPS is very accurate horizontally and vertically now. Accurate enough to make no real difference. I use a Garmin Vista all the time when I fly my paraglider and on average I'm going about 25mph and it will map the thermals in the sky that I ascend with in realtime. I can see nearly exactly where I go without much error to make a real difference, and I can down load into it a very accurate USGS topo base map for the region I'm using it. Here you go, check it out, GPS track with Google Earth:
http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.html?topic_id=223016&msg=223016#msg223016
So, tell me a GPS isn't worth while and accurate now.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Dec 20, 2006 - 01:34am PT
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Klimmer, I don't believe the first front came through any faster than expected and I do feel they had a sufficient weather window - so long as absolutely nothing went wrong - something did and they paid for it.
JLP, we will have to agree to completey disagree. As I said above, the margin was there for doing it, there wasn't any margin for error. I made the same choice free soloing three pitches out of five four times last week in rough conditions - I had the margin to do it - none for error whatsoever even though I was on easy terrain. You are simply making conclusions that are in no way sustained by the photos or facts. The outcome doesn't in anyway justify your statements. Now you might be able to say that being a threesome didn't help their case any regardless, but again, we don't have any idea what happened up there to say more than they didn't make it in the window available to them.
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Jello
Social climber
No Ut
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Dec 20, 2006 - 01:44am PT
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Seems to me like these guys were like most of us, pushing themselves a bit in time-tested classic adventure fashion. Some things went wrong, as can happen to anyone, regardless of experience level. Pontificating without full knowledge (or even with full knowledge) seems pointless to me. Alpine climbing IS adventureous and sometimes things get out of control.
I wish the families and friends of these climbers peace and strength, and I'd like to recognise the climbers themselves as kindred souls.
-Jeff Lowe
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JuanDeFuca
Big Wall climber
Stoney Point
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Dec 20, 2006 - 01:50am PT
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Still this mountain climbing we do is way safer than going up in the Space Shuttle.
As for technology I always have my 2m Ham Radio with me and my GPS reciever, and a signal strobe. So when I do a 15 mile day loop and break my ankle Air 5 can give me a free ride back to Verduge Hospital. Why more backcountry travelers do not carry a ham radio is a ?.
JDF
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Klimmer
Mountain climber
San Diego
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Dec 20, 2006 - 01:56am PT
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So true. And who among us wouldn't jump at the chance to go to space if NASA called and asked? Even average Joe or Jane on the street has this dream.
You just gave me another line to tell people when they question the sanity of adventure sports.
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WBraun
climber
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Dec 20, 2006 - 01:59am PT
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Not me, we got no business in space. Figure it out here on earth.
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Lambone
Ice climber
Ashland, Or
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Dec 20, 2006 - 02:17am PT
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traces of the dead climbers...
what's it all about? who knows...one can only imagine the epic those poor bastards had.
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Klimmer
Mountain climber
San Diego
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Dec 20, 2006 - 02:18am PT
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Not to highjack this thread but . . .
Ok Werner, I stand corrected. Not everyone has these dreams of flight --- I sure do. I used to think everyone did until Kari Castle (skygoddess resides in Bishop) set me straight. Ok, almost everyone.
But wouldn't it be an experience of a lifetime to climb anything on the Moon? Come on. I know what you believe regarding whether or not we have actually been there, but besides that can of worms, wouldn't you want to experience a first ascent or two on the Moon if you could and where given the chance?
Edit: Yes this probably deserves its own thread, but since Werner doesn't think we have been there, I doubt it would go very far.
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Lambone
Ice climber
Ashland, Or
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Dec 20, 2006 - 02:22am PT
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dude, start your own thread on climbing the moon, come on...
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Anastasia
Trad climber
Mammoth Lakes, CA
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Dec 20, 2006 - 09:13am PT
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I am still hoping someone comes out alive. This has been a bad year for all of us. I am wishing to hear a good ending, it would be a nice contrast.
AF
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TYeary
Mountain climber
Calif.
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Dec 20, 2006 - 12:08pm PT
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I'm afraid at this point they are all lost. There should be no recriminations, second guessing, or character assassination. These guys were us. How many times have we all been in a situation where, but by the Grace of God, dumb luck, or what ever you want to label it, we somehow squeaked out of harms way? These guys were out for adventure and had some very bad luck. I think it's safe to say, they made , what they thought were the best decisions, under the circumstances. Perhaps you or I would have made differant choices, but we were not there, this time. Could it have been you or me? You bet. My heart goes out to those lost climbers and their families.
Tony
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golsen
Social climber
kennewick, wa
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Dec 20, 2006 - 01:23pm PT
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jlp said,
You'll get lost in the stew if you start trying to say GPS, MLU, warm gear, cell phone, or NOT etc. would have made a difference.
The #1 and #2 cause here, and in most accidents, (go check the statistics) is 1) Being able, competent and safe on the expected terrain. No dice here on that one. Must be tough trying to be an ice climber in Dallas Texas. 2) Being efficient enough with your ways to complete the route in an expected and somewhat predictable time. They miss on that one too. These two things reduced their margin to almost nothing, and margin is everything in alpine climbing. A phone, GPS, warm cloths, stove, etc. all increase margin, but not quite as much as being able to bust your moves 1000's of feet off the deck competently and quickly over mixed terrain w/ little to no pro. Margin - margin to deal all the unpredictabilities, especially in alpine climbing, such as getting lost, injured and/or benighted. They had little to start with, and it ran out fast. No margin. That's my take here.
My take on the details of their actions is that they appear to have gotten stuck in the "over the top" mentality. Oh yeah, it'll be a LOT easier that way! It's ego, I think. If things are going bad, you still want the summit to save face. So many tragedies have tracks leading over the summit when it would have been smarter to bail. But then bailing is a skill I think a lot of people are lacking in and fear. We know how to go up, then find the easy way down. How about the hard way down? It's usually a heck of a lot faster, requires less calories and is in the better direction for temps, weather exposure - and oxygen. Bollards & v-threads in likely settled conditions at the time. Slowly unload the rack into nearby rock. Slings on horns. Start sliceing up the rope. Head back from which they had become no doubt intimately familiar. But from the description of their last anchors above the precipice of their end, they probably didn't have a clue. Two pickets and all the rest of the rack equalized won't get you far. Bummer. Sad and a bummer.
JLP
JLP, by the acounts I read, Mr. James was injured. I find it really hard to believe that he was injured low down on the route and they climbed with the injury. Instead, my hypothesis is that he was injured high on the route. I dont think there is anything that indicates a go for it attitude killed them.
I have descended similar routes to the N Face of Hood in the cascades. I never want to do it again. A competent team in good conditions can descend the South side in a couple hours. Prety easy choice to make there. Desending Cooper Spur in those conditions is also not advised.
You may have some points to consider on margin. Climbers who live and breathe climbing and live in an area full of oportunities are generally more comfortable on tuff terrain. However, all these guys were experienced. I just think the injury and the weather and possibly a poor decision on the descent route may have got them...
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