Is human activity responsible for climate change?

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rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Shetville , North of Los Angeles
Apr 19, 2016 - 06:49pm PT
The same people that read Sports Illustrated...
Pete_N

Trad climber
Santa Cruz, CA
Apr 20, 2016 - 02:47pm PT
I'd be interested to learn what ExxonMobil knew long ago about the relationship between fossil fuel consumption and climate change. I don't think I'd be surprised, but maybe they're sincere in their belief (?) that it ain't their fault...
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Apr 20, 2016 - 06:34pm PT
On gax tax -
1. revenue neutral so there is no $$$ overall cost for whoever the revenue is sent thru decreased other taxes.
2. Phased in over some years, so each increment can be readjusted if the outcome is not optimum.
3. We are now 36 years behind schedule in raising these revenue neutral fees. (since 1980 election)
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Apr 20, 2016 - 06:40pm PT
"Who looks to Exxon Mobil for news and information?"

besides Republican politicians?


http://insideclimatenews.org/news/18092015/exxon-confirmed-global-warming-consensus-in-1982-with-in-house-climate-models

http://insideclimatenews.org/news/22102015/Exxon-Sowed-Doubt-about-Climate-Science-for-Decades-by-Stressing-Uncertainty
monolith

climber
state of being
Apr 20, 2016 - 07:12pm PT
People listen to the 'think' tanks Exxon Mobil helps to fund.
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Apr 20, 2016 - 07:35pm PT
I'll give up my motorcycles if you give up your cars.
Lorenzo

Trad climber
Portland Oregon
Apr 20, 2016 - 07:39pm PT
I'll give up my motorcycles if you give up your cars.

I'll give up my motorcycles if you give up your internet.
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Apr 21, 2016 - 11:40am PT
An environmentally oriented architect in the US calculated that 48% of greenhouse gas emissions were due to buildings. Building, tearing down, heating, cooling, etc.
It is much more than driving. We have to include flying, our choice of food, and other buying habits into our personal carbon footprint evaluation.

DISCLAIMER:I am no angel when comes to the footprint as I drive an F150 (not to work though), I like to fly to the desert in spring and fall, and I like to eat beef
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Apr 21, 2016 - 12:03pm PT
I like to eat beef

I live in Clovis, CA, where full-sized pickups are the norm. I'm an outlier for driving sedans. In any case, a popular bumper sticker in these parts reads, "Eat California Beef. The West Wasn't Won On Salad."

On a more serious note, the discussion of solutions in the last page or two illustrates the biggest problem we face -- everyone supports a solution that affects them, at most, tolerably. Few support a solution that radically changes (really dminishes) their lifestyles.

John
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Apr 21, 2016 - 04:17pm PT
Hey I'm in favor of a CO2 tax. Ramp it up to $100/ton over the next few decades or so and let the pain fall where it may. If it turns out I can't fly as much so be it. Although with a real commitment to CO2 taxes I bet the airline industry would figure out alternatives. Bio fuel perhaps.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Apr 27, 2016 - 08:09am PT
Who looks to Exxon Mobil for news and information?

How about Congress.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Apr 27, 2016 - 08:12am PT
Is the OP's question still a question?

'There is No Doubt': Exxon Knew CO2 Pollution Was A Global Threat By Late 1970s
A chemical engineer for Imperial Oil described the need to control all forms of pollution through regulatory action, noting that 'a problem of such size, complexity and importance cannot be dealt with on a voluntary basis.

DeSmog has uncovered Exxon corporate documents from the late 1970s stating unequivocally “there is no doubt” that CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels was a growing “problem” well understood within the company.

“It is assumed that the major contributors of CO2 are the burning of fossil fuels… There is no doubt that increases in fossil fuel usage and decreases of forest cover are aggravating the potential problem of increased CO2 in the atmosphere. Technology exists to remove CO2 from stack gases but removal of only 50% of the CO2 would double the cost of power generation.”

Things that make you go, "Hmmmm...."
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Apr 27, 2016 - 08:38am PT
The comments from the above article have this gem--it's too good, and real, for me to not post:

meltdown

The fact that government has subsidized this industry for decades and during a time that this industry manufactured an oil shortage crisis in order to escalate its profits; the fact that government continues to subsidize this industry as it continues to make obscene profits is all the proof anyone needs about the complicit relationship between Big Oil and Corporate Government.

Is this news shocking? Not really. Will there be a robust investigation? Not really. Will anyone be held accountable? Not really. Will anything change? Not with this administration or with a Clinton, Trump, or Cruz administration.

There might be a magic show to dazzle those who are easily distracted with the illusion that committees will conduct investigations and ask very tough questions and that the American public, the easily distracted ones who spend their seconds, minutes, hours and days texting, posting on Facebook, and watching innumerable sitcoms will have the opportunity to view these actions on C-Span, and then the crescendo to this government inquest will be some serious hand slapping, or perhaps, if enough pressure is brought to bare from the public, an upper management sacrificial lamb will go to jail and business as usual will adapt, and very expensive corporate lawyers will encrypt future communications so that it will take another 70 years, instead of 35 to procure and expose the dubious actions of its [corporate] handlers.

We see this time and again play out in front of our eyes, even with politicians, whether it's Watergate, Iran Contra, The Washington Bridge closures, Polluted water in Flint, or Exxon Valdez, Deepwater Horizon aka the BP oil spill, Enron - the one where Kenneth Lay died the day before serving his jail sentence, or whether its the subprime mortgage ponzi scheme that wrecked our economy, as long as the relationship between government and corporations exist, the only people who will go to jail are the fall people or the lone wolf whistle blowers who will be incarcerated or perhaps demonized for life, in case they are granted asylum in some foreign country; like, I don't know, let's say, Russia, as an example.

The only true accountability is the wrath of Mother Nature, because we know it's not nice to fool mother nature.

I may sound just a little cynical, but I'm a realist, as I know many here are also realist, but it does not mean we don't try to hold government or corporatism accountable with protest, demands and our attempt to return government back to the people, but time is something we have precious little of, and another four years of corporate government "will" drive humanity precariously close to an inevitable path of destruction that can neither be repaired or sustain our existence, and I fear that the billionaire parasites will win another four years come this November, and that the taxpayers will continue to pay for its own demise with [corporate] subsidies.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Apr 27, 2016 - 08:55am PT
Things that make you go, "Hmmmm...."

Like bumping dead horse threads?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Apr 30, 2016 - 10:45am PT
I guess it's a dead horse, the assignment of human activity to the current climate change.

That's a huge change from the former thread in which this assignment was debated.

Further, the question: "what to do about it" is pretty much answered: impose a carbon tax. This time of low crude oil price would be the best time to implement such a tax. And it is generally agreed that the carbon tax is the optimum way to reduce carbon emissions. Further, we have a much better estimate for the costs of those emissions. Not only that, a carbon tax might save the coal industry, which is currently under duress largely from the uncertainty on future policy action, the tax would make the future of coal calculable.

There is still the nagging argument: "climate changes, so why do anything?" and this is largely a natural response to apparently "random" and therefore uncontrollable natural forces. It is human to not want to "waste" resources preparing for something that either might not happen, or will happen anyway (in such a manner that planning for it would be irrelevant).

So the article in the current paper issue of Science is relevant to the understanding of the cycles of "greenhouse" and "icehouse" periods of Earth's history, and sets the mechanism for the "baseline" climate of the Earth, back 2.4 billion years.


the perspective might be viewable without a subscription

Science 22 Apr 2016:
Vol. 352, Issue 6284, pp. 444-447
DOI: 10.1126/science.aad5787


Continental arc volcanism as the principal driver of icehouse-greenhouse variability

N. Ryan McKenzie, Brian K. Horton, Shannon E. Loomis, Daniel F. Stockli, Noah J. Planavsky, Cin-Ty A. Lee

Abstract

Variations in continental volcanic arc emissions have the potential to control atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels and climate change on multimillion-year time scales. Here we present a compilation of ~120,000 detrital zircon uranium-lead (U-Pb) ages from global sedimentary deposits as a proxy to track the spatial distribution of continental magmatic arc systems from the Cryogenian period to the present. These data demonstrate a direct relationship between global arc activity and major climate shifts: Widespread continental arcs correspond with prominent early Paleozoic and Mesozoic greenhouse climates, whereas reduced continental arc activity corresponds with icehouse climates of the Cryogenian, Late Ordovician, late Paleozoic, and Cenozoic. This persistent coupled behavior provides evidence that continental volcanic outgassing drove long-term shifts in atmospheric CO₂ levels over the past ~720 million years.


Earth experienced multiple shifts in climate state over the past ~720 million years (My), with extensive icehouse intervals during the Cryogenian (1, 2), latest Ordovician (3), late Paleozoic (4), and mid-late Cenozoic alternating with greenhouse intervals during the early Paleozoic and Mesozoic–early Cenozoic eras (5, 6). These shifts are attributed to changes in the partial pressure of atmospheric carbon dioxide (PCO₂) (5–8). Long-term (≥10⁶ years) changes in PCO₂ are controlled by the magnitude of carbon input to the ocean-atmosphere system from volcanic and metamorphic outgassing, as well as the removal of this carbon primarily through silicate weathering and subsequent precipitation and burial of carbonate minerals, along with organic carbon burial (8, 9). Although sporadic processes such as enhanced plume activity (10) and mountain building (11) have been invoked as drivers of specific greenhouse or icehouse intervals, no unifying model explains all of the observed fluctuations.

Arc magmatism along continental-margin subduction zones is thought to contribute more CO₂ to the atmosphere than other volcanic systems, owing to decarbonation of carbonates stored in the continental crust of the upper plate (12–16). Although direct measurements of CO₂ outgassing rates are limited, current continental volcanic arc (CVA) emissions are estimated to be as high as ~150 teragrams C per year (Tg/year), in contrast to 12 to 60 Tg/year from ocean ridges and 1 to 30 Tg/year from oceanic intraplate volcanoes (14). Therefore, the spatial distribution of CVAs through geologic time, which varies due to changes in plate tectonic regimes (17), may play a prominent role in regulating Earth’s climate state.
.
.
.
Silicate weathering increases with increased temperature, providing a feedback that prevents runaway greenhouse conditions and is critical to maintaining a habitable environment for life (9, 38). The temperature control on silicate weathering means that it operates as a function of, and is largely dependent on, the CO₂ flux into the atmosphere (39). Therefore, the input flux should exert the first-order control on atmospheric CO₂ fluctuations that dictate baseline climate. Spatiotemporal variation in the distribution of CVAs—contributors of the largest and most variable CO₂ input flux—exhibits a consistent correlation with all major icehouse-greenhouse transitions over the past ~720 My. Further, the correspondence of a prominent magmatic lull with the extensive Paleoproterozoic Huronian glaciations suggests that CVA CO₂ outgassing was a principal driver of Earth’s long-term climate variability for the past ~2.4 billion years.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Apr 30, 2016 - 11:18am PT
Thanks Ed. Excellent.
---------------------------------------------------------------



http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/04/record-arctic-warming.html


-------------------------------------------------------------------


As climate change melts Arctic permafrost and releases large amounts of methane into the atmosphere, it is creating a feedback loop that is "certain to trigger additional warming," according to the lead scientist of a new study investigating Arctic methane emissions.

The study released this week examined 71 wetlands across the globe and found that melting permafrost is creating wetlands known as fens, which are unexpectedly emitting large quantities of methane. Over a 100-year timeframe, methane is about 35 times as potent as a climate change-driving greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, and over 20 years, it's 84 times more potent.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-methane-emissions-certain-to-trigger-warming-17374

jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Apr 30, 2016 - 05:10pm PT
Further, the question: "what to do about it" is pretty much answered: impose a carbon tax

A very good point of course, but there are so many questions about the effect of this policy on various economies around the world and the inequities between the wealthy classes and the poor that it seems a huge gamble to institute. Even if that were possible worldwide.

And then, were such a tax to exist in a struggling world economy the super volcano in Yellowstone erupts.
spectreman

Trad climber
Apr 30, 2016 - 07:44pm PT
You should all go see the movie "Climate Hustle", it's showing on May 2 in theatres near you.

:)
Tricouni

Mountain climber
Vancouver
Apr 30, 2016 - 08:23pm PT
And then, were such a tax to exist in a struggling world economy the super volcano in Yellowstone erupts.

jgill: your posts are usually cogent, but the logic escapes me here. What if the tax was NOT implemented and the "super volcano in Yellowstone erupts."?
jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Apr 30, 2016 - 09:57pm PT
A massive effort is made to impose such a tax, expecting a gradual improvement in climate, then along comes a SV and all is for naught.

Best laid plans . . .

Don't mind me. The issue of AGW becomes intertwined in the public mind with political correctness, anathema to middle America.

Just doodling here.
Messages 201 - 220 of total 288 in this topic << First  |  < Previous  |  Show All  |  Next >  |  Last >>
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