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Norton
Social climber
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Nov 25, 2015 - 11:19am PT
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I think JohnE is right ^^^
in addition, if anyone but Trump is the ultimate nominee look for Donald to break his
pledge and run as a third party, using the excuse of the RNC was mean to me
by doing so he splits the Republican vote and increases Hillary's already huge win
Donald has the ego and narcism of Ross Perot in spades to do it
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 25, 2015 - 11:26am PT
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JEl Someone else noticed the same thing a few months ago about trump.
Trump, Americas first African president!
[Click to View YouTube Video]
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Lorenzo
Trad climber
Portland Oregon
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Nov 25, 2015 - 12:03pm PT
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I think JohnE is right ^^^
in addition, if anyone but Trump is the ultimate nominee look for Donald to break his
pledge and run as a third party, using the excuse of the RNC was mean to me
by doing so he splits the Republican vote and increases Hillary's already huge win
Donald has the ego and narcism of Ross Perot in spades to do it
This is all conjecture.
Trump is on track to win the republican nomination.
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 25, 2015 - 12:23pm PT
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Still 2+ months till the primaries start then another month or more before the nominee is clear. That might as well be forever in this world of short news cycles.
Barring an arrest or other complete unforseable meltdown Hillary will clearly be the Democratic Party Nominee.
I still expect Jeb to have a strong showing once things get "real" He has by far the most money raised and the biggest republican machine behind him. Slow and steady wins the race.
Trump should be the death of the republicans chances for the white house as either the Nominee or if he doeas go 3rd party splitter like Perot intentionally did to Bush.
Then again..Hard to believe but...I must admit a bit of nervousness that he actually has a chance to be president.
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Lorenzo
Trad climber
Portland Oregon
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Nov 25, 2015 - 12:34pm PT
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Money ain't enough.
In a fascinating analysis at the conservative magazine National Review, Lawrence Brinton, a pseudonym for a political operative who has supposedly "informally advised several 2016 campaigns," lays out a compelling case that establishment favorite Jeb Bush has "almost no chance" of winning the 2016 Republican nomination. Brinton bases his analysis on Bush's third-quarter fundraising numbers, which show that the cash for his campaign comes overwhelmingly from major donors — indicating a lack of support from grassroots voters who are not only necessary to build enthusiasm for a campaign, but who also in recent election cycles have become a financial force in their own right.
Brinton's analysis is damning. The ratio of Bush's big-donor and small-donor amounts is a wildly unbalanced 15:1, comparing unfavorably to Hillary Clinton (3:1), Marco Rubio (1.7:1), Ted Cruz (1:1.6), and Republican frontrunner Donald Trump (1:6.5). (As Brinton notes, Trump has not even been an active fund-raiser, and would likely be an attractive candidate to both major donors and small donors.) Bush even trails Mitt Romney at this stage of the 2008 election cycle, with the former private equity titan boasting a healthier 7:1 ratio. George W. Bush had a 12:1 ratio at this stage of the 2000 race, but Brinton argues that he was competitive in the small donor range and dominant in the middle donor range, whereas Jeb is very weak in both areas.
Based on historical patterns, Brinton concludes that "Jeb Bush cannot win." He adds, "No candidate has ever won the nomination with such a heavy reliance on big donors, even at a time when big-donor money made up a much larger percentage of total fundraising." Brinton says that the candidate in the best position to win is Cruz, and that Rubio, Carly Fiorina, and Trump are also in the mix.
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dirtbag
climber
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Nov 25, 2015 - 12:36pm PT
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I doubt things will change much between now and January 1. Americans tune out politics in favor of holidays. That will leave one month for the race's dynamics to change.
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guyman
Social climber
Moorpark, CA.
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Nov 25, 2015 - 01:06pm PT
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I doubt things will change much between now and January 1. Americans tune out politics in favor of holidays. That will leave one month for the race's dynamics to change.
Not exactly true.... we tune out politics for Football....
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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Nov 25, 2015 - 01:40pm PT
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The more I hear Trump speak, the more his appeal starts to resemble that of a populist dictator. His policy is "Put me in charge and I will lead you to the promised land." He doesn't really say how, and shows little regard for limited representative government.
While this is true, I cannot help but think that he is not actually serious about wanting the job. It feels like he made a bet with Hillary when she was at his wedding, that he could get in the middle of the Repubs with nothing but bluster, and have a meaningful shot at being nominated. I'll bet he has to have a certain number of delegates by some date to win the bet.
All that said, lightning might hit, and your caveats should be carefully considered.
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John M
climber
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Nov 25, 2015 - 02:18pm PT
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I disagree Ken..
On yet another thread, Jesus said Trump doesn't want to win because in part he would be poorer. I disagree with that..
Trump is a megalomaniac. He doesn't just want money, he wants power. The Prez is still considered to be the most powerful man in the world. He thinks lesser mens hands are tied in the presidency, but his won't be, cause he's the Donald. Thats the classic definition of a megalomaniac. There are people who don't do business with him because they don't like him. At that level, money is no longer the issue. Power is. Once he is the prez, then those people will take his call. He wants to rub it in.
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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Nov 25, 2015 - 06:39pm PT
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Well, it's true I don't know the man. What you say may be entirely true, in which case one might want to be even more careful.
However, it is Carson who actually scares me. He is a religious "true believer", just as are the people in ISIS. He really believes that we are heading towards the "end times", and that the bringing of Jesus to earth is totally to be supported and facilitated. To that end, the great war that brings this about is a holy obligation.
I think he believes that God has anointed him to make it happen, and we are talking about giving this person the access to the nuclear arsenal.
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
Shetville , North of Los Angeles
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Nov 25, 2015 - 06:43pm PT
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Oh wonderful...A brain surgeon with a bible and the launch codes...
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Lorenzo
Trad climber
Portland Oregon
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Nov 25, 2015 - 06:47pm PT
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If you are talking Amageddon, it takes place on the plain of Megiddo or it doesn't fulfill scripture.
not Syria.
Nobody is going to nuke it. It's still farmland.
And there has to be a temple on mt. Zion.
Even then, we get a thousand years of pestilence and such.... Not much different than now.
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Lorenzo
Trad climber
Portland Oregon
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Nov 25, 2015 - 07:11pm PT
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It is up to the voters to vet and make wise choices.
You mean the folks who elected GWB, aka the stupidest man on the planet?
Yeah, that'll work.
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Tom
Big Wall climber
San Luis Obispo CA
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Nov 25, 2015 - 07:40pm PT
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. . . And that Jesus dude at Best Buy has to grow his beard out some more.
Trump mocked and ridiculed a disabled New York Times reporter this week at a campaign rally. In 2001, the reporter, Serge Kovaleski, investigated rumors of New Jersey Muslims cheering the destruction of the WTC towers. He found no evidence of any such celebrating by New Jersey Muslims. In a recent interview, Kovaleski affirmed that Trump's claim of witnessing cheering hordes was false.
Trump, being Trump, responded by attacking the man, not the message. He said, "You've got to see this guy," and used an exaggerated voice and arm action as he pretended to be Kovaleski:
Uhh, I don't know what I said. I don't remember. I don't remember. Maybe that's what I said."
Trump used an absurd voice to mock the reporter, and waved his arms around awkwardly in front of himself, pantomiming the effects of Kovaleski's congenital condition, arthrogryposis, which affects the joints and limits motion of the arms.
The reporter was born with the condition. So, Trump is indicating that he disfavors, even hates, those with inferior genetics. He is apparently in favor of eugenics, and social engineering superior human specimens.
Trump has publicly disclosed, again, that he is a Nazi.
Drumpf was Trump's grandfather's name. He was a pimp, the owner of brothels.
Trump ist der Drumpfkopf
EDIT: I just checked the Wikipedia article, to confirm the spelling of Drumpf. Within the past few days, the article has been edited to now claim that the name Drumpf has been "erroneously" attributed to Trump's grandfather.
This is how fast facts and news can change in the Internet Age.
I'm sticking with the original story that Drumpf came to America from Germany, and only later anglicized his name to Trump. And that his grandson Donald is a f*#king Drumpfkopf.
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Lorenzo
Trad climber
Portland Oregon
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Nov 25, 2015 - 08:28pm PT
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Nov 25, 2015 - 07:39pm PT
Lorenzo,
"Democracy fatal flaw: The vote of a fool has as much weight as the vote of the wise."
Moose
The founding fathers had the same thought. That's why the electoral college exists, and why senators were originally appointed by state legislatures.
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Lorenzo
Trad climber
Portland Oregon
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Nov 25, 2015 - 08:36pm PT
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He's going to be our prez. Get use to the idea.
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crankster
Trad climber
No. Tahoe
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Nov 25, 2015 - 08:42pm PT
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Lorenzo
Trad climber
Portland Oregon
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Nov 25, 2015 - 09:04pm PT
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The problem is who defines the "wise" vs the "fool." Recall we had that system once in this country wherein only land owners or only literate (who must also be white males) or only whatever persons could vote. Surly we don't want to go back there. Now, however, we have gone so far in the other extreme that we don't even want to require ID to vote. Now long dead people can vote (repeatedly,no less), illegals can vote - heck I think my dog can vote. You may well need to show ID to rent a movie but no so to vote. That's a no no. The joke around my house is the dog is going to vote and then for whichever candidate promises her the most free kitty food
Well, it was worse than that in the past. If you were a slave, your master got the equivalent of 3/5 of your vote, but you didn't get to vote. And his combined vote of him and his slaves had more weight in the electoral college than in a state Without slaves. It's why the Southern states had so much clout before the civil war.
Native Americans weren't even people until 1879.
Despite Article six, In Virginia, you had to belong to the Anglican Church to vote, or at least profess the Anglican faith in a "don't ask, don't tell" sort of way. ( the Supreme Court upheld this law, citing states rights) Jeffererson and Washington were deists, and it was a bit of a problem for them.
In Delaware, you had to be Christian and believe in an afterlife. In Maryland, you couldn't be Jewish ( or Black) look up the words to the Maryland State song.
Then a goofy amendment granted " one man, one vote" as a principle. It didn't say you had to be educated or literate. In this day, it really doesn't matter much. Nobody reads about their politics anyway. Dead people could always vote. That's what the Chicago machine and Tamany Hall were all about.
And the ID requirement would be a great idea if it were universally policed, but records show enforcement is mainly in poor and black districts. It's used as a tool to disenfranchise the poor.
In Oregon, you register with ID, then a ballot is sent to your listed address. You mail it in or take it to the voting district office, and the fact that you have the ballot has already been vetted. Very little chance for fraud or multiple votes. That is, in fact, what rich people now do in other states. Republicans get their constituents to use the absentee ballot system to avoid the chance of that last gate keeping on voter qualification.
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Lorenzo
Trad climber
Portland Oregon
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Nov 25, 2015 - 09:25pm PT
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What you are missing is that if somebody challenges your ID your vote isn't thrown out on Election Day. You have time to do something about it, and in fact challenge the Accusers right of challenge.
It doesn't work to use it as a tool for disenfranchisement. Mass efforts at disenfranchisement are easily exposed.
The system also works in getting votes out. You don't have to take off work to vote, which is easy for the rich but not so easy for hourly employees.
Republicans hate it. There have in fact been republican challenges to the system, but since it was implemented, there have been nine verifiable fraud incidents despite thousands of challenges. They resulted in jail time, fines, and deportations when caught.
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Lorenzo
Trad climber
Portland Oregon
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Nov 25, 2015 - 09:41pm PT
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Oh, OK, it protects the voter from having his ID challenged so that he can refute the challenge in a timely manner. Most states I have lived in issue picture IDs which look just like driver's licenses only they say that the document is not valid for driving. So if the voter presents this state issued ID with picture on it (and STILL is challenged), is there not some mechanism in place to hold the person frivolously challenging it accountable. Could not there be stiff penalties in place for anyone pulling that sh#t.
They "pulled that sh#t in Florida under Jeb Bush's watch.
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