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Gary
Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
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Sell, sell, sell. Remember what happened last time they cut taxes and increased spending?
Reilly, you getting one of the new hybrids? We saw one on display at the Rose Bowl a few months ago. The gal said Volvo would pay for our flight to Gothenberg and put us up in a hotel while we picked out our new Volvo.
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Curt
climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
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Well, I don't like what I'm seeing at all. From an article earlier today by Thom Hartmann:
The entire “economic recovery” since 2008 has been based on artificially cheap money/credit, and depends on that remaining the case to maintain the appearance of stability...
...So, as soon as the Fed over the past month stopped buying bonds (also known as “ending Quantitative Easing”) and instead started selling them to get them off its balance sheet, US government bonds began to flood into the market.
As everybody knows, when there’s not as much demand as there is supply of something, an incentive is necessary to encourage buyers. In the case of debt, what that means is that the interest offered to induce people to buy debt must rise.
Thus interest rates on government bonds began to go up, to encourage the Chinese, Japanese, and Saudis to buy the US government debt that the Fed was unloading. At the same time, the Chinese and Saudis let the world know that they weren’t interested in buying more US government debt, further increasing the interest that bonds have to pay to find other buyers.
The additional $1.5 trillion to finance the Trump tax plan will just make things that much worse. Hartmann put "economic recovery" in quotes because our seemingly robust economy depends desperately on extremely cheap money--i.e., Fed rates very near zero. The current stock market drop is just a leading indicator of recession--which is likely to come if interest rates continue to rise.
Curt
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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. I'm looking to dollar cost average if Apple drops to $156
Done and done.
I'm in for the long haul and, so far, that has gone very well, although the real turning point was when dividend income exceeded living expenses.
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StahlBro
Trad climber
San Diego, CA
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tRump's only comment on the market
"Making a big mistake!"
WTF? Who the hell is he talking to?
I guess that is what you get from someone who does not read and gets all his "oral briefings" from Faux news pundits kneeling before him.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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This is a 10% correction. BFD. The sellers are FOMOs and dumb asses who didn’t plan accordingly.
BTW, Gary, I’m a lttle embarrassed to admit we didn’t get the hybrid. If we lived in a more
progressive state like Colorado the numbers woulda made it a no-brainer. Besides, with the
weight of the batteries the real world mpg numbers I’ve seen aren’t greatly better than the
regular ride.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Robert, The Economist has good introductory subscription rates. Or you can surf the web
and look at historical records. What is immutable is that with the increased involvement of
central banks recessions have been getting shorter and less frequent and recoveries are
more rapid. Will inflation suddenly blow up and turn this into an actual recession? There is
nothing to suggest that - the world’s economy has never been better and capitalism has
dragged many millions kicking and screaming out of dire poverty. I’m sure you will correct
me on that.
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Jon Beck
Trad climber
Oceanside
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We are not even close to going down the path Greece is on. The problem over there is they had no economy to back up the borrowing. Their debt-to-GDP ratio is 180%, ours is a little over 100.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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There will be a poin at which nobody wants to buy our debt.
Where do you guys dream this stuff up? Even some Republicans are smarter than that.
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StahlBro
Trad climber
San Diego, CA
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That will be a while, but the debt payments will haunt our budget for a long time.
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yosemite 5.9
climber
santa cruz
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Feb 10, 2018 - 06:08pm PT
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I made $1,400 in gains in the last hour on Friday. hopefully it will last.
I don't follow chartists. Though I will consider them as secondary evidence.
the computer programs that create these selloffs provide good buying opportunities.
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Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Topic Author's Reply - Feb 10, 2018 - 07:42pm PT
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Yosemite 5.9!
Your gains late on Friday, when all involved, except for the computer programs, thought the market would tank some more, are impressive.
I can tell, you are one hellavu stock-picker.
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Bruce Morris
Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
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Feb 10, 2018 - 08:25pm PT
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Market hasn't gotten nearly low enough for me to start buying. At least, no yet . . . Only things I've been buying lately are Augustus Saint Gaudens double eagles MS 66. They're not going to wither and go away.
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Bruce Morris
Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
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Feb 11, 2018 - 12:49pm PT
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While if you are hoping to become comfortably financially independent now, through the stock guessing game, you have to play it like a casino, and not believe that you have won anything if you are still playing at the table.
That's why if you want to beat the House, you have to have mo' money than the House.
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Feb 12, 2018 - 02:49pm PT
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.the computer programs that create these selloffs provide good buying opportunities.
Precisely right!
On Thursday I said,
there will be another drop to "test" the bottom, probably soon.
Sometimes I even scare myself.
Apple closed above $163.
Back in the black and awaiting dividends.
(Missed an opportunity with Citigroup though)
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Feb 12, 2018 - 06:54pm PT
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Dropped mi iPhone in Sam Maloof’s garden Thursday, appropriately enough, and broke the
screen. That was a buy signal, right?
Robert, you’d do well to heed TV, he’s got a good track record, on many fronts.
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Jon Beck
Trad climber
Oceanside
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Feb 14, 2018 - 06:09am PT
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CEO for Goldman Sachs has not felt this good since 2006 (said with a smirk on his weaselly face). That is the que for the little guy to grab his socks.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Feb 14, 2018 - 12:54pm PT
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Now it’s only a 6% correction. meh
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Feb 14, 2018 - 02:52pm PT
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Thanks Reilly.
Robert L, I plan to raise some of those issues at a stockholder's meeting. I guess its easier just to whine on a climber's forum though, but less effective.
Berkshire Hathaway just bought Apple today, so I'm not the only one optimistic.
People were worried about inflation. Crude has crept over $60.
But a little inflation is a good thing.
Hell, we could see the Dow over 30K before 2020.
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