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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Aug 10, 2010 - 11:53pm PT
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Too many assumptions Corny
Gamma rays exist and pass right through us but they can't drink your beer and neither can ghosts.
The criteria for whether something exists or not is not the implications for our practical convenience, but whether they actually exist or not. How they can or cannot affect this world is a different issue and can be greatly misunderstood (just like anything beyond our measurement or understanding at this stage)
Peace
Karl
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scarface
Trad climber
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Aug 10, 2010 - 11:53pm PT
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Pate, LOL,
And use your real name.................... although I know.........
You are now bordering on the dreaded paranormal
hmmmm
SF
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High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
Full Silos of Iowa
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Aug 10, 2010 - 11:59pm PT
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"The criteria for whether something exists or not is not the implications for our practical convenience, but whether they actually exist or not. How they can or cannot affect this world is a different issue and can be greatly misunderstood (just like anything beyond our measurement or understanding at this stage)."
On that we agree.
Sweet dreams, Ghostman.
.....
Tony wrote: "interesting suggestion, pate = corn. i tend to doubt it because corn hasn't invented any words about nun bondage."
No, here Pate and I differ. I'm into this:
And apparently I'm not the only one as it's garnered 449 views in just a couple of months. Go Richard B.
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Tony Bird
climber
Northridge, CA
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Aug 11, 2010 - 12:14am PT
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you posted that before, huff. it gets kinda old, like the guy on the waterskis.
was she an hourly or an overnight?
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Aug 11, 2010 - 12:33am PT
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Aug 11, 2010 - 12:48am PT
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I think that science is a way to understand if something is actually happening or not... assuming it matters to you, of course
Karl provided testimony regarding astrology, but one can ask a scientific question, too, as Shawn Carlson did, which he published in a Commentary in Nature 318, 419 1985 titled "A double-blind test of astrology"
It tests the 'fundamental thesis of natal astrology' as stated:
"the positions of the 'planets' (all planets, the Sun and Moon, plus objects defined by astrologers) at the moment of birth can be used to determine the subject's general personality traits and tendencies in temperament and behaviour, and to indicate the major issues which the subject is likely to encounter."
The experiment was designed with input from both the science and the astrological communities.
In part 1 of the experiment, volunteers had astrologers construct their horoscopes based on information they provided. They were their own horoscope and two others chosen at random, and were asked to select a first and second choice. The volunteers also rated on a 1-10 scale how well each interpretation fit them (10 being the best fit). A random selection would be indicated if the volunteers picked their own horoscope one third of the time, the astrologers said that the volunteers should be able to select their own horoscopes "more than half" of the time.
In part 2 of the experiment, the participating astrologers were separately given the natal chart of a random subject and the result of the California Personality Inventory and two other CPIs chosen at random. The astrologers were asked to select a first and second choice CPI to match the horoscope, and rate each CPI on a 1-10 scale, 10 being the best fit. Again, a random selection happens one third of the time, the astrologers thought they could pick the correct CPI more than half the time.
The selection of the volunteers was such to eliminate biases based on their beliefs regarding astrology. Similarly, the National Council for Geocosmic Research (NCGR) helped suggest astrologers they vouched a competent, they also helped with the experimental design. They assented that the this was a 'fair test.'
Additional bias reduction was done by defining a control group in each of the two parts of the test, for example, by worrying about "Sun-sign bias," etc. The control group does not contain the individuals actual horoscope, but does of one born under the same Sun-sign greater than 3 years apart... if the control group frequency of selection equals the test group's frequency of selection, then the astrological hypothesis is false.
I won't bore you with the actual numbers... unless you ask... as Tony seems to have something against numbers...
interestingly part 1 was confused by the fact that the in the part of the test where the subjects were asked to select there own CPI, they did that at a rate consistent with random choice, so even though they selected their horoscopes at a random rate also, the conclusion is consistent with the scientific hypothesis, but doesn't rule out the astrological hypothesis (because the subjects apparently couldn't tell).
however part 2 the astrologers failed to perform at their stated level by more than 3 standard deviations, and by limits set at the onset of the experiment that a 2.5 standard deviation difference was "significant" as agreed upon by all those participating in the design of the experiment.
"We are now in a position to argue a surprisingly strong case against natal astrology as practiced by reputable astrologers. Great pains were taken to insure that the experiment was unbiased and to make sure that astrology was given every reasonable chance to succeed. It failed. Despite the fact that we worked with some of the best astrologers in the country, recommended by the advising astrologers for their expertise in astrology and in their ability to use the CPI, despite the fact that every reasonable suggest made by the advising astrologers was worked into the experiment, despite the fact that astrologers approved the design and predicted 50 percent as the 'minimum' effect they would see, astrology failed to perform at a level better than chance. Tested using double-blind methods, the astrologers' predictions proved to be wrong. Their predicted connection between the positions of the planets and other astronomical objects at the time of birth and the personalities of the test subjects did not exist. The experiment clearly refutes the astrological hypothesis."
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Mighty Hiker
climber
Vancouver, B.C.
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Aug 11, 2010 - 12:51am PT
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It was overly kind of them to use the phrase "reputable astrologers". An oxymoron if ever there was one.
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Aug 11, 2010 - 01:00am PT
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That all might be true Ed, but like I said, where I experienced it, it's an art practiced constantly from an early age and the ones I've known were the best of the best.
Doing it right is 5.14 and you need a gift as well. Climbers know when they can climb 5.14, astrologers think they can predict with 5.14 skill when they cant.
Again, look at the degree of specificity in the predictions I related. It's a far cry from vague personality characteristics. I have no doubt the majority of western (and maybe most eastern) astrologers don't have the right stuff to do 5.14 work
Peace
Karl
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scarface
Trad climber
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Aug 11, 2010 - 01:14am PT
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Corn,
You are some digme piece of work, what's it like wearing blinders? That is a great man.
SF
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Aug 11, 2010 - 01:16am PT
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well Karl, how do you really know?
neither you nor I climb 5.14, to us it's just taking someone's word for it
you can believe what you want, your particular position is constructed such that it cannot be questioned, it is, after all, your belief.
but the whole point of my set of posts is to try to frame the astrological, and the paranormal, in terms of a testable hypothesis... to try to understand just how to perform a fair test to see whether or not the claims are correct
when this was done in the astrology case, the astrologers were shown to have failed. If that is true, we don't have to worry about how astrology works, because it doesn't.
my expectation is that if the test was done with your 5.14 astrologers, the result would be the same, there is no significant difference between the astrologers or the astrology, but I recognize that is just a conjecture, and one unlikely to be tested.
Similarly we can pick a set of hypotheses regarding LEBs "experience" and try to understand just how likely her interpretation is...
...it will most likely be a useless exercise as the "believers" will continue to believe and the "nonbelievers" continue to provide arguments based on an analysis of the circumstances which will be declared irrelevant by the "believers"
Unfortunately, such arguments need to be precise and quantitative, LEBs desire to do a "qualitative" study will not resolve the question... the anecdotes provided here only tend to confirm LEBs experience, but these do not constitute a test of her "hypothesis."
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Aug 11, 2010 - 01:53am PT
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well Karl, how do you really know?
neither you nor I climb 5.14, to us it's just taking someone's word for it
I guess what I'm saying is, if you lined up a bunch of fine climbers from Supertopo at the bottom of a 5.14 and asked each one in turn to send it, and nobody could, that wouldn't prove that 5.14 isn't climbable.
you can believe what you want, your particular position is constructed such that it cannot be questioned, it is, after all, your belief.
That's not true at all. While I don't care to share my own example, if the astrologer tells my friend all this and much, much more. I'll quote my last post
How many brother and sisters she had, which ones have problems and the state of some of their health and marriages, which ones she is biologically related to
How many kids they had and how many died already,
That her mother and father are divorced
That she lives far from where she was born and that her mom returned there but that her dad lives close.
That she has a scar on her right knee
That she is a teacher
How many marriages, when they ended and why.
How many kids she has, their character, and relationship with her. Also miscarriages.
Type of childhood experiences (very specific)
What issues trouble her relationship and why (not generic)
and I know he has absolutely no way of researching her in advance, there is a certain amount of evidence there. These are not vague maybe questions.
A friend went to the same astrologer. He said they should visit their father as he would die very soon. That person's father did not die and so they thought the astrologer was wrong. But a year later they confronted their mom regarding some inconsistency in bloodtypes in their family. Mom admitted that the Dad who raised them wasn't the biological dad, and that the biological Dad had died six month ago.
Just for one personal example, the guy told me a few years back that in the fall of 2009 I would be subject to an injury in my ankle area or shoulder. I've hardly ever been injured but pulled a piece and ruptured my achilles tendon in a 20 foot fall (that was very clean but my toe hit one little sloper)
You can cite all the studies you like, the world is not as we see it and it doesn't even show everyone the same stuff.
but the whole point of my set of posts is to try to frame the astrological, and the paranormal, in terms of a testable hypothesis... to try to understand just how to perform a fair test to see whether or not the claims are correct
when this was done in the astrology case, the astrologers were shown to have failed. If that is true, we don't have to worry about how astrology works, because it doesn't.
My awareness is that much of what you are saying seems quite fair from the scientific viewpoint but is based on assumptions about the world that from the mystical viewpoint, aren't true. We are living in a dream that is amazingly fluid. The game is rigged so you can't prove its a game, not until you have the keys, which you can't share. The rats stay in the maze until the scientist is finished with the experiment.
I know that sounds bogus and I don't care, because you don't have to believe and you're just fine the way you are.
Peace
Karl
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Aug 11, 2010 - 02:00am PT
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thanks Karl,
peace
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Tony Bird
climber
Northridge, CA
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Aug 11, 2010 - 02:09am PT
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i don't take much stock in astrology either, but it would appear there are different kinds of astrology. in karl's case, perhaps a gifted psychic who seems to rely on astrology-related ritual. i suspect the astrologers in the study which ed cites had no such psychic powers. there are two very different cultures involved as well.
if you want to put your mathematical mind to work, ed, go over that list of information which that complete stranger was able to divine for karl's friend, and tell us the chances of such accuracy happening randomly, out of the blue, without some hidden mechanism at work. the only thing i can think of is that the guy has a legion of private investigators.
australian aborigines are reported to be able to communicate over distance psychically. this involves ritual, and it isn't easy, but there are many reports of its amazing effectiveness.
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Aug 11, 2010 - 02:53am PT
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Tony wrote
i don't take much stock in astrology either, but it would appear there are different kinds of astrology. in karl's case, perhaps a gifted psychic who seems to rely on astrology-related ritual. i suspect the astrologers in the study which ed cites had no such psychic powers. there are two very different cultures involved as well.
This is certainly true. An astrologer without a some psychic awareness is unequiped. Like the tarot, those symbols are pointers and inspirations but inadequate in themselves to get specific without highly developed intuition.
And when you only charge $13, it's hard to hire a lot of investigators, particularly when you have no idea somebody is going to walk in the door for the first time in advance
Peace
Karl
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Aug 11, 2010 - 02:56am PT
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I never watch TV but I'm visiting my folks for a few days. I just happened to turn on the TV right to an episode of "Family Guy" where Meg's Ass is haunted and possessed by ghosts! Just after I posted this stuff!
The universe has a sense of humor
Peace
Karl
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jstan
climber
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Aug 11, 2010 - 03:28am PT
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In the absence of a good study with testing we have only anecdotal data. You cannot conclude much from that. Very substantial studies have been made of the effectiveness of prayer. One report had it that prayer anticorrelates. Without seeing the statistics I would question the statistics or the design of the study.
Another point. When faced with something that seems unusual our normal response is to assume some particular mechanism is active. The aborigines are communicating psychically, for example.
Assumptions are not a good way to fill a hole in knowledge. Women have a much more acute sense of smell than do males. Dogs and bear even more so. Ants travelling along a trail of pheromes know the state of mind possessed by those leaving the trail. Whether the trail leads to food or whether the colony is under attack.
When we don't know something the best response is to admit we just don't know - yet.
As regards LEB's cat, we are programmed to see what we have seen before. Possibly there was another cat in the same place because the place possessed a scent or some other artifact left by the other cat. It had been marked. And Lois decided it was her cat because that was what she expected to see in that place. These are the possibilities I would plan to test. Because such things are often experienced.
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Wayno
Big Wall climber
Seattle, WA
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Aug 11, 2010 - 03:45am PT
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There have been many studies done over the years by many reputable people studying anomalous phenomena. Some of these studies have come up with rational conclusions. A certain percentage remain unexplained. Unless there is a desire to explore these matters further, the funding to do such studies will remain slim. Add on top of that all the negative social implications of accepting the fact that there is more that we don't know than what we do know, and you get the kind of weird bullshit that goes on around here.
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jstan
climber
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Aug 11, 2010 - 03:51am PT
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Now why did I not get to the point that succinctly?
Props.
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allapah
climber
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Aug 11, 2010 - 04:38am PT
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sub-nucleic minutiae propagating information from micro to macro affecting the order in which things happen permeating causation with a WEAK entropic force (which is why you can't adequately test the phenom using sci method 'cause it's weak and doesn't occur in very many places and the friggin observer blows the outcome ) these resonant entropies accounting for paranormal phenomenon
why not a study where climbers quantified their synchronicities (via some simple form) before and after climbs and outcomes were correlated with precognitions? how psyched were you, what were the omens, what tunes were playing in your head
i don't suppose it would ever work, better just to go climbing pure and simple
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