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Chaz
Trad climber
So. Cal.
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I'm not voting for the piece-of-shit that is Obama, but if he wins I'll make his policies work for me.
I'm inspired to jack-up the rent to all my tenants if Obama wins.
Then another round of rent increases are scheduled to coincide with those $500 checks he wants to send out to people who don't pay taxes.
As soon as those checks are authorized, rent goes up by another hundred dollars a month.
That's inspiration.
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Something Chaz and McCain should have learned during this election cycle is that we are responsible for our own actions and integrity.
Losing those things in response to things not going your way only makes things worse for you.
That's what's different with Obama. He has maintained a stance of excluding no-one, being everyone's president, and acting consistently sane and just in the face of all kinds of desperate lies and trick headed his way.
Just the kind of honest and clear minded guy to help us get through troubled times.
Plus, he "gets" that our energy crisis will be a monumental issue in coming years and see that we can make the solution to that crisis the basis of a new economy of American technology and jobs.
Otherwise, we're just a nation of consumers buying foreign made crap with borrowed money.
Peace
karl
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Delhi Dog
Trad climber
Good Question...
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I've tried to stay clear of these political threads...
but for what it's worth...(probably not much:>)
My inspiration comes through Obama in that we as a country may finally be putting our collective prejudices aside and are willing and able to finally vote for someone other that a white male.
Simple I know, but honestly it says a lot about who we are as a country.
Cheers,
DD
ps I ain't counting the chickens yet though...
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Binks
Social climber
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He won't surround himself with yes-men
He's actually read the Federalist Papers.
He's the beginning of a great healing of the ancient wound of racism.
He's the most intelligent and thoughtful candidate in living memory.
He's eloquent, inspirational, and deeply practical.
He has plans that positively impact the country's long term future (an end to the bubble mindset).
He has the potential to be one of the greatest presidents ever.
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Chaz
Trad climber
So. Cal.
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Lois,
I can make almost any situation work for me.
If Obama really does tax the rich to give cash away to poor people, that's money I can make a play on.
The rich don't rent my joints, so unless I get a bumper-crop of avocados I don't have much of a chance of getting my hands on their cash.
The poor is my customer base. If they have an extra $500 in their pocket there will be a way I can transfer it to my pocket.
Besides, gas is cheaper now than it was this time last year AND they're fixing to build a WalMart SuperCenter in town, so that's as good as a 10 or 15 percent raise we all got right there.
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Matt
Trad climber
primordial soup
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 3, 2008 - 11:59am PT
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Lowest-
You apparently are unfamiliar with the laws of supply and demand?
Your argument assumes that the rich are not already charging whatever the market will pay.
Chaz-
Your post illuminates the person behind your keyboard.
As Warbler says Obama is a person he'd like to have a beer with, you sir are not that for me.
"the piece of sh#t that is..."
Wow that is quite a statement about a man who by all appearances wants to serve his country, for the purpose of improving his country. You listen to too much talk radio pal.
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Chaz
Trad climber
So. Cal.
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Matt writes:
"You listen to too much talk radio pal."
That's bullsh#t, Matt. You are making things up. This makes me think you make up everything else you post on here, or at least seriously calls into question the accuracy of the rest of your posts.
For the record, I don't listen to talk radio. I like the Oldies station, and I don't listen to it at all early on Sunday mornings when it becomes a talk-station for a few hours.
If you wanted to, you could have asked. I would have told you.
Add "inspired to lie about things" to your list.
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HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
Arid-zona
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No LEB. We think you are stupid because you repeatedly say and do stupid things. Smart people can disagree and articulate their disagreement. Stupid people eat and regurgitate propaganda.
Nobody on the left is counting any chickens. In fact the current joke is "Is your candidate ahead by 8 points the weekend before the election and you're still worrying about winning? You must be a Democrat."
You appear to be living in a media created reality, LEB. Turn off fox, stop listening to your husband and go out and meet and actually TALK with some people who disagree with you for a few weeks. Then come back and you might have some interesting things to say. You'll likely also find the things you disagree and agree about are different than you currently do.
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HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
Arid-zona
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The reality is that you have STATED that your main sources of information are FOX and your husband. So all I'm doing is assuming that you are telling the truth. If you have other sources feel free to share them but you never have as far as I've seen.
And oh hey look another liberal generalization.
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Domingo
Trad climber
El Portal, CA
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Hey, remember how Matt requested people who want to complain, talk about John Mccain, and otherwise make non-relevant points go to another thread? Me too. Hey Lois, I generally respect you but IT'S IN BOLD ON THE FRONT PAGE: "This thread is not about conflict, and I request that you respect that."
But since apparently we're allowed to be as#@&%es now, let me lay it down: when Barack Obama's president, I'll be happy because a bunch of loud jerks who would vote for Bush again if given the chance will have had the someone stick it to them.
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HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
Arid-zona
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I'm inspired because it means a defeat for tactics of negativism and character assassination. It means the finally people won't have been rewarded for using the nastiest, most spiteful and most divisive rhetoric as a basis for winning political power. It will mean that issues beyond flag pins and gay marriage will have finally been important again. I look forward to that day.
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Brunosafari
Boulder climber
Redmond, OR
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Good luck Matt keeping this positive. "Inspired" is one of my favorite words.
I've had almost the exact same experience as yourself in respect to your parents. I can't imagine the dismay Mom and Dad would have experienced at the prospect of budding fascism from the shameful rhetoric in the McCain campaign. On the other hand, I wish they could have lived to participate by voting in the great historical moment arriving TTTTTTTTTTTomorrow.
Like Radical, I consider Obama's race speech to have been one of the greatest speeches in US history.
And like Warbler, I can't wait for a president who can speak English. Principled intelligence and communication skills from the presidency is the best foundation for creating English literacy and an educated, effective democracy.
Last night Obama summed up the campaigns--
"McCain has called me every name except:
'Child of God.'"
I am deeply inspired by the nature of Obama's balanced and guiding Christian Faith. He represents our prospects for peace, justice and unity. Those on the Religious Right should consider the many advantages (and superior theology) of separating Church and State. I say this as a person who believes the much maligned Bible to be "Inspired."
We are at a phenomenal moment in world history. I'm predicting an inspiring landslide victory for Obama.
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apogee
climber
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Hey, everybody-
Can we keep this thread on subject? The personal attacks and rebuttals are becoming the focus (which is all-too-common on ST).
This is no doubt a somewhat hypocritical statement, given my earlier TGT-related post. It is sometimes too hard to resist the urge to nuke some of the more ridiculous & negative statements that are made here, to be sure.
Having said this, I value thoughtful discussions, even/especially when they are impassioned, articulate, and succinct, even/especially when they differ from my own views.
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apogee
climber
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I am inspired by many of the qualities that others have listed thusfar. As I consider both candidates, Obama shares significantly more of my views of the world and effective leadership. I find him to be refreshingly genuine, articulate and intelligent, and his calm, rational demeanor is trustworthy.
McCain's erratic actions and behaviors during this campaign, combined with his almost complete about-face from his former political persona makes him a very uncertain prospect to me.
Underneath all of these specific examples, though, is simply a gut feel that I trust Obama and his intentions. This is obviously highly subjective, and leaves one wide open to attacks and disappointment, but I suspect that 'gut feeling' is a large element in most voter's decisions.
Knowing that the Dem's have a long and consistent history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, I am looking forward to having this all be over tomorrow.
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Bart Fay
Social climber
Redlands, CA
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Having lived through a few of these, we should all realize that no matter what happens
tomorrow things will not change very much*, or very quickly. And whom ever wins,
the reality of what is delivered will be a shadow of what was advertized.
* Especially for the middle class.
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Chris2
Trad climber
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yea...when he forgot "Joe the plumber" was not at his rally and forgot who the fifth Secretary of State was that supported him and referred to the crowd as "my fellow prisoners," and walking around the stage at one of the debates and etc....I did find myself getting a bit concerned...
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SteveW
Trad climber
The state of confusion
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I'm inspired because it WON'T BE BUSH.
And hopefully IT WON'T BE MCSAME
god how I wish it were KUCINICH!!!
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Mighty Hiker
Social climber
Vancouver, B.C.
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Imagine, Obamalot (rhymes with Camelot) on the Potomac. Has a nice ring, don't you think?
Michelle Obama would undoubtedly be your most elegant first lady since Jacqueline Kennedy, too.
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jstan
climber
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=adgQKY4tg.t8&refer=news
Commodities Send Sell Signal Before Long Recession (Update3)
By Millie Munshi
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- A record plunge in commodities may signal the U.S. is headed for the longest recession since 1981, just after Ronald Reagan became president and the economy began a 16-month slump.
Industrial raw materials measured by the Journal of Commerce fell at an annual rate of as much as 56 percent last week, the most since 1949 and worse than the declines before every recession since then. Crude oil, copper and wheat tumbled more than 50 percent from records this year as the U.S. economy declined in the third quarter by the most since 2001.
``The industrial sector, which was helping to keep the recession relatively mild, has completely given way and now we need to be prepared for a much more severe recession,'' said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute in New York, which compiles the Journal of Commerce data. ``It's at least going to look something like what we saw in the early 1980s, but it could be worse.''
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., once among the biggest commodity proponents, said on Oct. 23 that the risk of a ``sharp global economic slowdown'' may send prices even lower. Codelco, the world's largest copper miner, said this year's price collapse signals the end of a ``supercycle'' for the metal.
`Defensive Holdings'
The commodity slump is ``indicative of a global growth scenario with slower growth than what we've seen in more recent recessions,'' said Walter ``Bucky'' Hellwig, who manages $30 billion at Morgan Asset Management in Birmingham, Alabama. ``It's probably best to be underweight commodities now. Where the money goes is into defensive holdings, like consumer staples and stocks that benefit from lower commodity prices.''
Equities outperformed industrial commodities in each of the past three downturns.
During the 16-month recession from July 1981 to November 1982, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 6.4 percent as the Standard & Poor's GSCI Index of 24 commodities fell 9.9 percent. Then, among the biggest winners in the 30-company Dow index were Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's biggest retailer; Pfizer Inc., the biggest drugmaker; General Electric Co.; and Procter & Gamble Co., the biggest consumer-products company.
The MSCI World Index of stocks rose 9.8 percent last week, the biggest gain since January 1970, as markets rallied in Russia, Africa, Brazil, Mexico, Europe and the U.S. The gauge advanced 0.4 percent today, after earlier climbing as much as 0.9 percent. The S&P GSCI index fell 3.3 percent.
Recession Not Certain
Not everyone expects a protracted decline in global growth. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has been reluctant to label the current slide a recession. In an on Oct. 8 forecast, the International Monetary Fund said global growth would drop to 3 percent next year, which the lender calls the dividing line between world recession and expansion.
``What you're seeing here is liquidation by hedge funds,'' said Stuart Flerlage, who helps manage $600 million at New York- based NuWave Investment Corp. ``That's a meaningful piece of what's going on out there in the commodity markets, in the equity markets, in the fixed-income markets. You're in a fear cycle now. My overall economic view is it's not as bad as people think.''
The Journal of Commerce Industrial Commodity Price Index measures 18 raw materials, including steel, burlap and plywood. It was started in 1985 by Geoffrey Moore, founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute and once a mentor to former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan. Half of the commodities aren't traded on U.S. exchanges.
`Scared to Death'
The gauge correctly predicted the past two U.S. recessions, falling about 8 percent from peaks in October 1989 and September 2000. The index dropped about 8.4 percent during the 1990 downturn and 17 percent in 2001. That compares with a 42 percent drop from this year's high on July 14.
``People say that copper is the commodity with a Ph.D. in economics, but really all you have to do is look at the price of any commodity right now to realize that the world is definitely in a recession,'' said Michael K. Smith, president of T&K Futures & Options in Port St. Lucie, Florida. ``Anyone paying attention to these markets is scared to death right now.''
Declines in raw-materials prices are linked to manufacturing slumps that compound economic slowdowns.
Incumbents Lose
During the eight-month recession that began in March 2001, the Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index of Raw Industrials, a gauge of the cost of 22 items including scrap copper, cotton and hogs, fell 8.7 percent as U.S. industrial production dropped as much as 5.7 percent. The industrial-commodity index fell 19 percent during the recession that began in July 1981, as factory production plunged as much as 7.1 percent.
The turn in the U.S. economy may spell trouble for Senator John McCain, who has fallen further behind Illinois Senator Barack Obama in his bid to succeed President George W. Bush as the financial crisis intensified.
In the last 60 years, there have been three instances where a presidential election followed a negative third quarter. In two of these, Bush in 2000 and Reagan in 1980, the incumbent party lost the White House. In the third, Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956, the incumbent party kept the presidency. Bush and McCain are Republicans.
Signs of Slowdown
While the National Bureau of Economic Research, the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based official arbiter of U.S. economic cycles, has yet to call a recession, the CRB raw-materials index has plunged 31 percent since its peak in May. During the same period, U.S. factory production declined for three straight months, ending five years of gains.
Spending by U.S. consumers dropped the most in four years in September, capping the weakest quarter in three decades, government data show. Unemployment is at a five-year high of 6.1 percent, and U.S. consumer confidence in October dropped to the lowest level on record, according to the Conference Board.
U.S. manufacturing contracted in October at the fastest pace in 26 years, an industry group said today.
The commodity decline coupled with economic data signal the current slowdown will last at least 16 months and spur slowdowns globally, not just in the U.S. and Europe, ECRI's Achuthan said. The slumps of 1990 and 2001 each lasted eight months, according to NBER data.
``As is usually the case, the commodity index is ahead of consensus right now and indicating just how deep and how long this global recession will be,'' Achuthan said.
Consensus View
During the 1982 recession, U.S. gross domestic product declined 2.7 percent in the third quarter, government data show. Economists aren't yet predicting that big of a slowdown. They expect 1.1 percent growth next year, down from 1.6 percent this year and the slowest pace since 2001, according to the median of 75 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. In the third quarter, the economy suffered its biggest decline since 2001, contracting 0.3 percent, the Commerce Department said Oct. 30.
Slumping growth in emerging-market economies will send commodities lower as demand drops in China, before resuming a multiyear rally, said John Brynjolfsson at Armored Wolf LLC, a hedge fund in Aliso Viejo, California.
``There will be a collapse'' in prices, followed by a ``long-term supercycle'' spurred by ``a depleting global base of supply and a huge, growing population,'' Brynjolfsson said.
Commodity producers are curbing output and delaying projects in anticipation of weaker demand.
Companies Cut Back
Roger Agnelli, chief executive officer of Cia. Vale de Rio Doce, the world's largest iron-ore producer and second-largest for nickel, said the economy is facing ``a very deep recession'' and the company plans to reduce output. Dow Chemical Co. Chief Executive Officer Andrew Liveris said a global recession will prevent the U.S.'s largest chemical maker from meeting its earnings forecast for the lowest point of the industry cycle.
Tom Albanese, the CEO of mining company Rio Tinto Group, said in an interview yesterday that the economic slowdown in China, the world's biggest consumer of metals, was quickening and demand wouldn't rebound until 2009.
Investors should sell commodity holdings and buy equities because raw-materials prices will fall further, said John Wilson, a co-director of equity research and chief market technician for Morgan Keegan, which manages $120 billion in Memphis, Tennessee.
``Commodities aren't the place to be any more,'' Wilson said. ``They did outperform equities for some years, but it's difficult to make the case for commodities now until we see the trough of a recession.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Millie Munshi in New York at mmunshi@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: November 3, 2008 17:26 EST
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