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donini
Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
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Jul 13, 2016 - 02:13pm PT
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History will treat Obama well unlike his predecessor. He labored against a hostile congress fueled by more than a tint of racisim and still accomplished a lot.
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Norton
Social climber
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Jul 13, 2016 - 02:18pm PT
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I would not put much credibility in those new couple of swing state polls.
Just last week Hillary had solid leads in almost all of the swing states.
Polling itself is both science and art
it cannot filter for Turnout especially with four more months to go.
Polls sample very few people, only a couple thousand in what is considered a "good" poll.
And then those numbers are filtered for:
1) are they Likely Voters, as in did they vote in the 2012 election or not?
2) are they actually currently Registered Voters in their State?
3) do they identify with a particular Political Party or not?
4) Are they men or women, women strongly vote more reliably than men
5) Are they White, Black, Latino, etc - each group has different loyalties
6) age - young very poor record of turning out to vote, older very good turnout
the difficulty for pollsters is guessing how to filter a sample for those variables
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Jon Beck
Trad climber
Oceanside
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Jul 13, 2016 - 02:25pm PT
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still the worst president ever.
Only for another couple months....
Your wrong Essy, Trump will not get elected.
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JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
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Jul 13, 2016 - 02:31pm PT
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the difficulty for pollsters is guessing how to filter a sample for those variables
In addition, a lot can happen between now and then. The "tracking polls," that measure the trend but don't purport to measure the level with the same accuracy, may actually be more valuable.
I see this election, now, as particularly difficult because there are so many wild cards in the mix. It reminds me of my first experience as an economic forecaster in 1973 when I got out of college. The textbooks on econometric models had nothing about wage and price controls, Arab oil embargoes, or 12% prime rates (although the late 1970's made those seem mild).
I would love to know how predicable the political scientists find this presidential election. If nothing else, I suspect the polls' stated confidence intervals understate the uncertainty.
John
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John M
climber
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Jul 13, 2016 - 02:43pm PT
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If Trump wins I will never forgive all the whiny liberals that wouldn't vote for Hillary because they are too pure of heart or whatever
and they will likely be pissed at you for not paying attention when they said that they had serious problems with Hillary. But no.. people like you went.. la la la.. shut up and get in line.. Hillary will definitely win.la la la.. I can't hear you.. la la la Hillary will win.
And NOW you are worried !!!!!
talk about head in the sand. I tried to warn people on this thread that there was a fairly large group of liberals who wouldn't vote for Hillary, but you all went.. naw.. Hillary will stomp Trump..and then you blasted me, though mostly what I was trying to do was warn you.
this is no different then the republican party not listening to a large percentage of its party.
Crankaloons dominate both the republican party and the democrat party. They just don't listen. And then when people don't follow their plan, they blame them and they never take a look at their part in things. Good luck with that. Hopefully you won't need it. But I still hear of people who won't vote for Hillary. Funny thing is though, I hear of republicans who will. So maybe the hated republicans will save you. Wouldn't that be ironic..
so go ahead.. don't forgive them... and what is happening to the republican party will happen to the dems.. way too funny. Ya'll were so sure of yourselves six months ago.
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dirtbag
climber
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Jul 13, 2016 - 02:54pm PT
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The problem is that Bernie isn't really electable in a general election, and no other prominent and electable center left politician stepped up to challenge Hillary.
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John M
climber
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Jul 13, 2016 - 03:00pm PT
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and no other prominent and electable center left politician stepped up to challenge Hillary.
and why would they when they run into the kind of partisanship that exists now? I was attacked for saying that I "might" not vote for Hillary. By my own party. Who would want to belong to that party? Or try to represent it.
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donini
Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
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Jul 13, 2016 - 03:04pm PT
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Bernie got a taste of unexpected fame and it went to his head. Imagine, thousands of college students thinking an aging politico from Vermont was god. Kind of reminds me of Nader. Fame corrupts and absolute fame corrupts absolutely.
I'm in line with Locker about Hillary.
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Norton
Social climber
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Jul 13, 2016 - 03:05pm PT
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Stop the Bernie talk
He has never ever been fully vetted in the press
Go read his Wikipedia page about his youthful quasi Communist joining
Stamp out thinking Bernie could win the General
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John M
climber
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Jul 13, 2016 - 03:06pm PT
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Fame corrupts and absolute fame corrupts absolutely.
so then you are saying that Hillary is corrupt. And you are fine voting for a corrupt person.
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JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
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Jul 13, 2016 - 03:10pm PT
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so then you are saying that Hillary is corrupt. And you are fine voting for a corrupt person.
John, I think we're stuck voting for imperfect people. I know if I must choose between Trump and Clinton, I'd rather have a smart [insert your pejorative of choice (e.g. "crook," "jerk," "corrupted person," etc.)] than a dumb one, so I'd vote for her. Since California almost certainly will never go for Trump, I may be able to salve my conscience by voting for a climber (i.e. Johnson/Weld), but only if Trump has no chance in this state. The potential damage he would do as POTUS simply gives me no other choice.
John
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Escopeta
Trad climber
Idaho
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Jul 13, 2016 - 03:12pm PT
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Your wrong Essy, Trump will not get elected.
Clearly, the comment went over your head. I could care less if Trump keeled over tomorrow.
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dirtbag
climber
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Jul 13, 2016 - 03:14pm PT
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The problem with Bernie is he's not a democrat and doesn't represent the democratic party. That's why he lost.
I agree with your point but that does not really address what I was getting at.
The problem, which i did not state clearly, is that both Bernie and hillary are flawed candidates. I think Hillary is more electable than Bernie for reasons Norton alludes to above but it is far from certain. It would have been nice if a viable third alternative (I.e., not Martin O'Malley) emerged in the primaries but that didn't happen. Just because Hillary has her electability problems doesn't mean that Bernie was a better choice.
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donini
Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
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Jul 13, 2016 - 03:22pm PT
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Ass kissing is one of humankind's most ingrained behavioral responses....it flows unimpeded thru all nations, cultures, and ethnic and socioeconomic groups.
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Craig Fry
Trad climber
So Cal.
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Jul 13, 2016 - 03:33pm PT
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and they will likely be pissed at you for not paying attention when they said that they had serious problems with Hillary. But no.. people like you went.. la la la.. shut up and get in line.. Hillary will definitely win.la la la.. I can't hear you.. la la la Hillary will win.
WRONG
I was paying attention, and
I did not say anything of the sort
I said you have to vote for the Primary winner
who ever they may be
I didn't pick Hillary, I'm not responsible for her winning all those votes
I knew she had problems
But there wasn't any others to pick from, no saviors from Heaven came this time to save our Party
so give up your Blame game on us,
This is reality, Hillary won
Now you have to vote for her, is it really that hard?
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Norton
Social climber
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Jul 13, 2016 - 03:38pm PT
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Lastly, no one gives a sh#t what collage aged kids think, not even the collage kids.
very true, because their turn out when called to vote is absolutely terrible
between hitting on the bong pipe and taking another Underwater Basket Weaving class
there just is not enough time in the day to actually vote....
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crankster
Trad climber
No. Tahoe
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Jul 13, 2016 - 03:49pm PT
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John M, Bernie supports Hillary for president, haven't you heard? And it's not white men like me who gave her the nomination by almost 4 million votes, it was minority voters, especially women. Do yourself a favor...seek out a group of them sometime and ask them why they didn't vote for Bernie. You might learn something interesting.
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Norton
Social climber
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Jul 13, 2016 - 03:58pm PT
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Cosmic!
and here I figured you were all done posting on the political threads from what you said about them?
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Craig Fry
Trad climber
So Cal.
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Jul 13, 2016 - 04:02pm PT
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The Obstructionist do-nothing Congress should be impeached
Now they are going after Lynch??
Will they ever stop being a-holes?
Why don't they do something good for once?
They are in power, they could do so many great things, but instead they waste time and money on political witch hunts, the definition of pure evil.
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dirtbag
climber
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Jul 13, 2016 - 04:08pm PT
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After nearly 25 years of fruitless Clinton persecutions, we should not expect anything different.
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