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Curt
Boulder climber
Gilbert, AZ
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Aug 10, 2012 - 01:39am PT
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We could clearly get 100% of our energy from renewable sources--it's not as though the resource isn't there. The energy contained in all of the known petroleum reserves on Earth equals the solar energy striking the Earth every 15 hours. The problems that need to be solved relate to transmission and storage--not production.
Curt
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johntp
Trad climber
socal
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Topic Author's Reply - Aug 10, 2012 - 01:39am PT
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And the cost of 1200mW of PV solar is currently around $2.5 billion. However, the fuel cost of the solar plant is zero over its 20 or 30 year lifetime. What is the cost of gas consumed in the gas fired plant over that same period of time?
Can't let this one go. Do you really think your utility company will reduce your rates? When will they do that? No, they will pass on the cost of of construction to the consumers and the charge the max available kWh rate for future power consumption.
Do you really think your electricity costs will go down? How?
Edit: Curt- what are your qualifications in this area?
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Curt
Boulder climber
Gilbert, AZ
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Aug 10, 2012 - 01:45am PT
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Can't let this one go. Do you really think your utility company will reduce your rates? When will they do that? No, they will pass on the cost of of construction to the consumers and the charge the max available kWh rate for future power consumption.
And that's true whether new generating capacity is solar, gas, coal or nuclear. So, I guess I don't understand what point you are attempting to make. My point was that your seemingly low cost for building a gas fired plant didn't include the cost of the fuel. Stannard went further to point out that the environmental cost of producing that natural gas also needs to be taken into consideration.
Curt
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Aug 10, 2012 - 01:48am PT
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I do not understand the support for any high CO2 output electrical generation.
The world is facing ecological disaster from CO2 pollution. I even prefer Nuclear to Natural gas. Even if it means a couple Chernobyls it would be better than what we are likely facing.
Solar seems better than that of course.
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Curt
Boulder climber
Gilbert, AZ
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Aug 10, 2012 - 01:57am PT
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Curt- what are your qualifications in this area?
I have fairly extensive experience with photovoltaic solar technology, project development and financing. What are yours? You seem to be confusing "modules" with "mirrors," so I question how well versed you really are in this area.
Curt
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johntp
Trad climber
socal
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Topic Author's Reply - Aug 10, 2012 - 02:08am PT
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Curt's comment deserves an answer.
"Yeah. You're right " works.
Can't answer that as I am knott a financial analyst and would not trust them anyways. Whether it is more economical to spend $2.5 billion over the long haul or $700 million plus expenses is beyond me.
BUT, even more important are the environmetal impacts of wind and solar energy. I'm just stating my gut instinct and seeing the desrtuction of the desert for what appears to me to be no good reason other than to say we are using "renawable resources" There are risks that have not been addressed. What do I know; I'm just a sutpid engineer/janitor.
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Curt
Boulder climber
Gilbert, AZ
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Aug 10, 2012 - 02:16am PT
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Can't answer that as I am knott a finacial analyst and would not trust them anyways. Whether it is more economical to spend $2.5 billion over the long haul or $700 million plus expenses is beyond me.
Well, if you're a engineer, you should certainly be able to calculate, or at lease estimate, the cost of natural gas consumed by your hypothetical 1200 mW gas fired plant over it's lifetime. The great thing about solar is that it's a perfect 100% hedge against any future increases in fuel prices.
BUT, even more important are the environmetal impacts of wind and solar energy. I'm just stating my gut instinct and seeing the desrtuction of the desert for what appears to me to be no good reason other than to say we are using "renawable resources" There are risks that have not been addressed...
I don't necessarily disagree, as long as you balance those costs against the environmental impacts of fracking (for natural gas) and the remediation costs for mountaintop coal mining, etc.--along with the costs of putting more CO2 into the atmosphere.
Curt
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johntp
Trad climber
socal
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Topic Author's Reply - Aug 10, 2012 - 02:17am PT
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Hey Curt-
Caught my second wind. Can we get into a rational dialog without trash tak?
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Curt
Boulder climber
Gilbert, AZ
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Aug 10, 2012 - 02:19am PT
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I thought we were having a pretty rational discussion...
Curt
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Adamame
climber
Santa Cruz
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Aug 10, 2012 - 02:24am PT
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People love to freak out about Solyndra but nobody ever seems to want to point out that the only reason they went bust was because China began producing much, much cheaper (gov't subsidized) solar panels on a large scale.
Solyndra failed because they had a horribly expensive and even harder to produce product. if it costs $2.50 per watt to produce and China can make it for $.60 a watt your going to fail... unfortunatley every week another solar company is failing somewhere in the world. China has subsidized their companies with billions of dollars. but even some of those are failing now. the companies who supply machines are getting out of the business too.
the market is really out of wack... and whichever companies make it through next two years will be able to make it when the industry starts to recover.
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johntp
Trad climber
socal
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Topic Author's Reply - Aug 10, 2012 - 02:24am PT
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Cool!
So do you see no environmental implications from solar?
edit for spelling errorz
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Curt
Boulder climber
Gilbert, AZ
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Aug 10, 2012 - 02:29am PT
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Solyndra failed because they had a horribly expensive and even harder to produce product. if it costs $2.50 per watt to produce and China can make it for $.60 a watt your going to fail... unfortunatley every week another solar company is failing somewhere in the world. China has subsidized their companies with billions of dollars. but even some of those are failing now. the companies who supply machines are getting out of the business too.
Solyndra's actual production costs never fell below $6/Wp. Chinese manufacturers, by the way, do not have the lowest production costs--in spite of their subsidies. The most profitable solar module manufacturer in the world--and the one with the lowest production cost per Watt-peak, is First Solar, based right here in Phoenix, AZ.
Curt
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Sierra Ledge Rat
Mountain climber
Old and Broken Down in Appalachia
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Aug 10, 2012 - 02:29am PT
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Why are we destroying thousands of acres/square miles of desert for large scale solar power when we have ample natural gas reserves to support combined cycle gas fired power plants is much more environmentally and economically sensible?
For the same reason that we're still using fossil fuels - the government is in the pocket of energy companies.
Solar energy is most efficient when used at the point source, i.e., the individual home or building. But self-sufficient solar buildings would mean that people would stop buying power from energy monopolies.
To prevent energy self-sufficiency, the energy companies are buying - and burying - technologies that would enable people to be energy self-sufficicent.
As if that isn't to make you boiling mad, energy companies are investing in shitty technologies that make the consumer buy energy from them - like large scale solar power plants.
If this country really made the effort, we could cease our dependence on fossil fuels. But that will never happen because the energy company CEOs are raking in money hand-over-fist with fossil fuels.
This country should make a major, concerted effort to cease our dependence on fossil fuels. It would be good for the environment and it would make even more sense from a national security perspective. We're funding the terrorism against ourselves every time we buy a gallon of gasoline.
Imagine what the world would be like if Islamic terrorists were filthy-poor bastards living in God-forsaken desert with no water?
But thanks to Repugnicans and other such morons, we are going to remain a nation with an insatiable appetite for fossil fuels, we are going to have a horrible environmental track record, and we are going to continue to fund the terrorists who attack us.
I live in the coal fields of West Virginia. There ain't no such thing as "clean coal." I invite you to see the human toll of Black Lung. Come see "Almost Heaven, West Virgina" now well on our way to becoming:
"Almost Hell, West Virginia, One Giant Strip Mine with Acid-Poisoned Rivers and Streams."
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gonzo chemist
climber
Fort Collins, CO
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Aug 10, 2012 - 02:35am PT
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a little perspective, and a message of hope:
http://vimeo.com/8194089
Dan Nocera came to UCI about two years ago, while I was still a grad student there. He gave a talk that was similar to this one, but was much more technical and heavy on the chemistry details. He's speaking to a non-chemistry audience here. Many things are glossed over.
Curt hit the nail on the head, I think. The problem is not so much about energy production...but rather energy storage. Fossil fuels have given us that advantage for many decades now. And they will continue to provide a great convenience for a while. But the world's top academic minds are in agreement (kind of shocking actually, when you consider how argumentative these people can be): continuing to dump greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere will have a growing effect on the climate. Climate change is simply untenable for the stability or longevity or our species. The Earth doesn't exactly need saving....it's inhabitants do (ALL the myriad wild creatures).
sorry this post is kind of rambling. I'm tired. Long days in the lab wear me out more than they used to 6 or 7 years ago.
disclosure: My expertise in chemistry is NOT in energy production or storage; I don't have decades of experience in the field, like johntp does. So perhaps my perspective is that of an idealistic egg-head. But I'd rather be an idealist than a pessimist.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Aug 10, 2012 - 02:38am PT
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There's no free lunch but there is having government in your pocket as SLR just pointed out. Good to know there are at least some checks and balances in the system as shown here.
Nuclear waste issues freeze permits for U.S. power plants
By Steve Hargreaves @CNNMoney August 9, 2012: 7:12 AM ET
"The U.S. Government said it will stop issuing all permits for new plants and license extensions for existing plants are being frozen due to concerns over waste storage. From the article: 'The government's main watchdog, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, believes that current storage plans are safe and achievable. But a federal court said that the NRC didn't detail what the environmental consequences would be if the agency is wrong. The NRC says that "We are now considering all available options for resolving the waste issue, But, in recognition of our duties under the law, we will not issue [reactor] licenses until the court's remand is appropriately addressed." Affected are 14 reactors awaiting license renewals, and an additional 16 reactors awaiting permits for new construction.'"
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Adamame
climber
Santa Cruz
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Aug 10, 2012 - 02:45am PT
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Solyndra's actual production costs never fell below $6/Wp. And yes First Solar does have the most effective commercially available technology at this point. And they do CdTl pretty well. But there product has a serious error. Their panels are too small, some companies in China will be making panels at a 2-2.5 m2 size in the near future. making one panel at 2.5 m2 compared to 3 at .8 m2 is much more expensive.
edit:
and all their equipment was purchased for smaller panel sizes. utility companies want big panels for these installs. First solar is in trouble.
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Curt
Boulder climber
Gilbert, AZ
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Aug 10, 2012 - 03:05am PT
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And yes First Solar does have the most effective commercially available technology at this point. And they do CdTl pretty well. But there product has a serious error. Their panels are too small, some companies in China will be making panels at a 2-2.5 m2 size in the near future. making one panel at 2.5 m2 compared to 3 at .8 m2 is much more expensive.
edit:
and all their equipment was purchased for smaller panel sizes. utility companies want big panels for these installs. First solar is in trouble.
I'm not convinced. Applied Materials had module production lines producing 5.7m2 modules, but they were never economically viable. The cost per W/p seems fairly independent of module size, at least to date.
Also, CdTe has some inherent advantages under low light and high temperature conditions. It happens to be a much more efficient solar absorber than crystalline silicon is.
Curt
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Jon Beck
Trad climber
Oceanside
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Aug 10, 2012 - 09:53am PT
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SLR nailed it, the energy corps hate rooftop generators. More effecient and keeps control local.
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Chaz
Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
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Aug 10, 2012 - 10:35am PT
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Edison doesn't just generate electricity.
They make a lot of money transmitting it too.
That's why all government subsidized solar generating systems are way the f*#k out in the desert, instead of on the roofs of the warehouses in Riverside.
Edison has bought and paid for key politicians, so when the government makes a move, they need to OK it with Edison first.
You want rooftop solar? Get the government out.
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Aug 10, 2012 - 11:33am PT
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Great discussion. Thanks for keeping it on a high level.
Chaz, there is no keeping Government out of the economics and politics of any large scale energy issue. But your post seems contradictory. You want Gov out of energy decisions cause big industry bought them off. Without Gov, then big industry is still the 800 lb gorilla in control.
Nuclear doesn't exist at all with Gov
and technologies we desperately need in the future (cause all petro-chemical based energy is finite) don't fly now unless we prioritize and subsidize our future energy until economies of scale and technology catch up
PEace
Karl
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