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Contractor
Boulder climber
CA
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Jul 29, 2018 - 11:48am PT
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ATG
Big Wall climber
Santee, CA They don't call it Klantee or Santucky for nothing....
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Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Topic Author's Reply - Jul 29, 2018 - 01:13pm PT
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A lot of pro-business conservative magazines are saying unkind things about “TRUMP’S TRADE WAR.”
Like the July 27th issue of Forbes:
U.S. Businesses Are Beginning To Pay The Price For Trump's Trade War
Plenty of experts agree that trade warfare is a bad idea. And still, from a supply chain management perspective, President Trump’s flailing maneuvers on global trade are probably causing more trouble than even most detractors realize. Initial moves to put tariffs on aluminum and steel are beginning to bite with negative earnings impacts for General Motors, Whirlpool and Ford. At the same time fears of Chinese retaliation have hurt prices for soybeans and pork with farmers already suffering.
So far these are the obvious problems. Unfortunately, it could get much worse.
Trump likes to tout the healthy stock market as evidence that he’s doing the right things. The Dow Jones Industrial Index is up 26.5% since his inauguration, which is great. Over the exact same period after Obama’s inauguration however, it was up by 30.8%. It went on to record a 181% gain during Obama’s free-trade presidency.
Investors saw money in the Trump tax cut, but have been much less enthusiastic since talk shifted to trade. Most are betting that it’s all bluster and won’t matter in the end. What they may be missing is how far even that bluster ripples back into the global supply chain. The trouble has just begun.
More of the article here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kevinomarah/2018/07/27/trump-on-trade-all-the-wrong-moves/#2fa216f62a80
It was noted up-thread that with Trump's Tariffs, the price of a new U.S. made Ford F-150 could increase by $7,000.
With that increase in mind & my 2013 Toyota 4-Runner getting close to 100,000 miles, I researched what could happen to Japanese import auto prices.
I found a July 5 article in AutoWeek that summed up the proposed Tariffs effects with this:
"The tariffs on vehicle imports alone would increase the average price of cars generally, while diminishing consumer choice," JAMA (Japanese Auto Manufacturers Association) said. "This represents harm to all U.S. consumers, including families and companies that use automobiles in or for their business operations.
A study by the National Taxpayers Union Foundation estimates that prices for cars built in the United States could increase by an average of at least $1,262 per vehicle and the average price of imported cars would increase by $4,205 per vehicle. Yet another study estimates that the price of an imported $30,000 car would increase by about $6,400."
Read more: http://autoweek.com/article/car-news/heres-how-japanese-automakers-could-be-affected-tariffs#ixzz5MfdNowb9
Interestingly to me, the MSRP of a new Toyota 4-Runner SR5 has only increased $1,140.00 or 3.13% since May of 2013. Obviously, Trump's proposed auto Tariff would result in an ugly price jump.
I'm buying my new 4-Runner on Monday.
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Lennox
climber
in the land of the blind
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Jul 29, 2018 - 02:11pm PT
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" This shows what would happen if a major player suddenly dumped U.S. bonds; essentially nothing. "
Russia dumped 84% of their holdings equaling about 81 billion dollars in treasury securities likely because they are worried about sanctions.
$96 billion in treasury securities doesn’t even make it into the top 15 in the list linked below.
http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt
Do you think that if the real “major player” got fed up with the tariff bullshit and started dumping chunks of its $1.18 trillion in holdings that “essentially nothing” would happen?
In three years, in the first year of his second term, he will go bigly on healthcare and universal income.
That is your prediction, but I think it is more likely that in 3 years Trump will be sharing a studio apartment in Moscow with Snowden or a cell with junior.
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Tom
Big Wall climber
San Luis Obispo CA
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Jul 29, 2018 - 05:52pm PT
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^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Yes, it is illegal for Federal employees to use their official positions to promote private business interests. It's called graft and corruption. It is commonly seen in Third-World nations, and, now, during the Trump Presidency.
Trump's hubris is of the greatest benefit to the American people. He doesn't hesitate to openly, brazenly and arrogantly flaunt laws that could lead to his imprisonment. When Trump is brought before Congress to answer for his crimes, the sheer breadth and scope of his malfeasance will ensure that he is removed from office. Whether the House brings 66, 101, or 409 Articles of Impeachment, it will only require one conviction in the Senate to get rid of him.
During the 2016 campaign, Trump said (to minority voters) "Vote for me. What's the worst that can happen?"
Now, Trump has invoked National Security to justify huge import tariffs. What's the worst that can happen?
Trump has been willing and eager, his entire life, to experiment and gamble with other people's money, just to see what happens. Trump has repeatedly boasted about how well he, personally, has done in bankruptcy court. He has called himself the "King of Debt" (debt = other people's money). Trump's business methodology typically comprised using other people's money for his schemes, skimming as much as he could for himself, up front in the form of fees, and then leaving banks and investors holding worthless stock certificates, failed projects and heavy debts.
Trump's self-delusional "winning streak" of disastrous business experiments (too many to list here) is motivating him to experiment and gamble, on a global scale, using only "touch and feel" to see what will happen. Astonishingly, educated and experienced lawmakers in Congress are willing to allow Trump to perform his haphazard economic experiments, as if they, too, are curious to find out, "What's the worst that can happen?"
Other world leaders are not impressed with Trump's dream-state improvisations.
The European Union Commission Chief, Jean-Claude Juncker, showed up at the White House with colorful, fourth-grade-level flash cards to teach Trump about global trade. Junker was able to placate Trump with some nebulous promises regarding soybeans and natural gas. Immediately after the meeting, Trump declared that the EU was no longer the "number one foe" of the United States, but was, again, it's greatest lover. Trump, again, declared victory over a crisis of his own making.
Trump's insanity is well recognized by EU leaders, and they are gingerly dealing with him, in the way you would with a Down-Syndrome child who had, somehow, gotten into the gun safe, and is now waving a .44 Magnum pistol around.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-juncker-trade-us-eu-trade-tariffs-white-house-meeting-flashcards-a8467051.html
https://www.sfgate.com/technology/businessinsider/article/Why-should-we-continue-these-deals-Trump-is-11267311.php
It is instructive to note that, so far, the industry that has benefited the most from Trump's economic experimentation has been the steel industry. Trump's huge tariffs on imported steel has caused domestic prices to skyrocket, and to greatly increase profits for the industry.
https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/29/investing/stocks-week-ahead-steel-tariffs-trade/index.html
Wilbur Ross, Secretary of Commerce, made a fortune wheeling and dealing with steel companies. He claims to have divested himself from the industry. But, his friends and family are probably profiting from his public policy decisions. And, his failure, so far, to divest himself of conflicts of interest has caused Federal ethics officials to warn him that he could face severe criminal prosecution. His divesting, so far, comprises putting his assets into a trust that his family controls and benefits from.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2018/06/18/lies-china-and-putin-solving-the-mystery-of-wilbur-ross-missing-fortune-trump-commerce-secretary-cabinet-conflicts-of-interest/
Wilbur Ross was the person who told Trump, last February, to invoke National Security, to bypass Congress, and impose tariffs on imported steel. In March, Ross said that fears of an impending trade war were "nonsense".
https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/02/politics/wilbur-ross-steel-donald-trump-cnntv/index.html
The "nonsense" is now that Trump and Ross plan to dole out $12 billion in taxpayers' money to Midwest farmers severely affected by Trump's trade war, to ensure that they remain loyal to Trump and vote Republican in 2018.
Trump is attempting to steer the U.S. economy towards a Soviet-style command economy, with himself at the levers, deciding who wins and who loses. Trump has already engaged in selectively distributed economic favoritism to reward friends and punish enemies:
 elimination of property tax deductions for Federal tax purposes, hurting Blue States the most
issuing import tariff waivers on an arbitrary and limited basis to political cronies
disbursing welfare payments to Red State farmers, with very little, or nothing, for Blue State farmers
https://www.thenation.com/article/the-gop-tax-bill-was-a-deliberate-attack-on-blue-states-and-california-plans-to-fight-back/
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/22/us/politics/trump-tariff-waivers.html
https://www.sfgate.com/business/article/California-could-see-little-of-12-billion-13105456.php?t=a0441ada52
VVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVV
Insofar as the Trump Era is Orwellian, where up is down, black is white, and 2+2=5, it could be expressed, in Doublespeak, that I am tired of winning.
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Jon Beck
Trad climber
Oceanside
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Jul 29, 2018 - 06:33pm PT
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Tom, your post conveys a feeling that you have grown tired of winning. Another Trump campaign promise fullfilled.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Jul 29, 2018 - 06:36pm PT
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Good,what does that even mean right now?
Good for who?
When?
How?
Like Contractor said,”Just a canarie in a coal mine”.
All this will not end well,thanks for security.
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zBrown
Ice climber
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Jul 29, 2018 - 08:43pm PT
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AB leader dies in Colorado prison making room for Trump
RICO RICO not suave
In the early 2000s, the federal government moved in on the Aryan Brotherhood. Mills became the lead defendant in a Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, or RICO, indictment that sought to take down the gang. Forty members and co-conspirators were charged in 14 killings and dozens of attempted hits.
In 2006, Mills, Bingham and two others went on trial together, facing racketeering and murder charges. They were convicted largely based upon the word of an Aryan Brotherhood dropout, who admitted to carrying out a killing but took a plea deal for fewer than 10 years in prison.
Mills faced the death penalty, which required a unanimous jury vote. When jurors voted 9-3 in favor of executing him, he was spared. He spent the rest of his life locked down at the supermax facility in Colorado, confined to his cell 23 hours a day.
“Barry would not let us put on a penalty phase case,” his attorney Steward said. “His whole thing was, ‘No sniveling.'”
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Contractor
Boulder climber
CA
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Jul 29, 2018 - 09:08pm PT
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35 years of supply side economics has done exactly what the designers and beneficiaries intended.
They flushed out savings, retirement, future tax revenue and even a few piggy banks out into the open where they could snatch and run.
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zBrown
Ice climber
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Jul 29, 2018 - 09:25pm PT
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I think most folks are reconciled to voting trump out
It would be nice if he could still be prosecuted thereafter
Obviating the Kav crutch he's trying to provide himself
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Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Topic Author's Reply - Jul 29, 2018 - 09:40pm PT
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zBrown! Per your comments!
I think most folks are reconciled to voting trump out
It would be nice if he could still be prosecuted thereafter
I agree!
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Contractor
Boulder climber
CA
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Jul 29, 2018 - 09:46pm PT
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Part 2- Currently the 1% have massed a huge percentage of the Nation's wealth in their investment portfolios and offshore accounts and we all know they don't pay taxes on those.
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dirtbag
climber
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Jul 30, 2018 - 06:18am PT
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Tom—I agree.
But what a sh#t choice!!!
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jul 30, 2018 - 06:35am PT
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Moosie, you’d be surprised at how liberal I actually am. I only play a conservative here in order to get your collective blood pressure above the stagnation zone. You’d also be surprised at how conservative most Norwegians and Swedes are. They only play at being liberal. Once you get outside the few cities they’re farmers and fishermen. And England is my third choice in case I decide I can’t take the illiberal drinking laws in Norge og Sverige. Besides, there are a lotta nice Polaks in Norway - a big plus! 😉
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StahlBro
Trad climber
San Diego, CA
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Jul 30, 2018 - 07:08am PT
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If you need a good laugh this morning, watch Rudy G try to explain tRump's Conflict accusations against Mueller.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jul 30, 2018 - 07:37am PT
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They are liberal until the topic of brown people comes up.
And you’re a complete moron who has no inkling what you’re talking about.
Racial, gender, and any other metric of equality is not where they are conservative.
Spend much time in Scandinavia, braj? Yeah, didn’t think so.
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
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Jul 30, 2018 - 08:50am PT
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Reilly....Not so sure about your assertion....My Norwegian friend has some funny Swede jokes...
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zBrown
Ice climber
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Jul 30, 2018 - 09:40am PT
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So the top 1% get about 20%
The bottom 50% get about 13%
What about the other the remaining 67% and the forty-niners?
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Norton
climber
The Wastelands
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Jul 30, 2018 - 09:43am PT
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With Mike Pence, at least we'd get a president who:
who is a literal bible fundamentalist Christian who will not allow himself to be in a room alone with a female other than his wife
who absolutely believes the earth is 6000 years old and was created in six days
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