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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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returning with a new event.
Werner, that is fake water out there! the model says only 9 .5 feet, and that tomorrow!!!
or maybe it is real water and the statisticians who do not acknowledge reality, or previous error, have a chance to revise their emotions and look at results.
last time the prediction was 58% inaccurate. but despite outcome, some still maintain they were correct, exactly why i said no to the NOAA recruiter.
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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Stage is 10.00 feet at 15:00 wednesday afternoon
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Ed H could debunk those numbers and what the Duck see's with his lying eyes.
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Dan McDevitt
Trad climber
yosemite
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gettin' pretty loud down here in el portal. around 20,000 cfs! still rising
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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wow, the model was so far off of reality it looked bad, so they revised the graph to better match reality, progress.
just note this is a response post facto
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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16:00 wednesday 8 February USGS reading at Pohono is 10.23
The model shows stage increasing at a rate of .1 foot per hour, but reality is slightly more than double that... hmm, rate of change is also 60% inaccurate, anyone see a trend?
Thanks for the pic Dan!!!
awesome power
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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That is movin', Dan!
I wonder what the canyon over by Coup D'état looks and sounds like.
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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T Hocking, actually Merry was better than that, she was exactly right to guess 13 feet.
She knew it was a guess so she used two significant numbers.
To give a prediction number with three significant figures is patently delusional.
Merry guessed 13, NOAA or as i prefer to call them NOAH, said in the last event said not about 24,
they are so delusional about their computation that they predicted 23.7 as if they were precisely accurate down to a third significant figure. This alone is a disconnect with reality, but they are so invested in the computation, that they have ceased to think.
Once again, when the model, or the "what was wrong" computation says 23.7 and reality is 12.65, it is not reality that was wrong.
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WBraun
climber
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It's clearing up now and stopped raining.
But!!! 140 and 120 are now closed.
Only 41 is open.
This place is getting hammered ......
(Tad, ... Merry is predicting now and I have no clue to what .... LOL)
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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Thanks for the update! when did the rain stop?
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WBraun
climber
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About a half hour ago ......
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Flip Flop
climber
Earth Planet, Universe
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Airbnb. Right on the river. Close to town. Good fishing.
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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Too funny nice yurt.
Werner, Pohono 17:00 was 10.20, so no change last hour.
Not sure what the lag time for the river is...
Radar looks clear for the rest of the day.
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mouse from merced
Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
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It's cleared up and stopped, except for teeny drops now and then.
Thanks, Kevin.
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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19:00 pohono stage is 10.52
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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20:00 pohono measures 10.89
and still going up for a few hours i think
edit: it held steady until 11, glad to be wrong.
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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10.97, 10.95
same number at 22:00
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WBraun
climber
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It will go down during the night now ......
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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23:00 10.9 and down it goes
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