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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Mar 28, 2015 - 12:17pm PT
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Tol's fulminations against Cook et al. (2013) have made him a laughingstock among scientists, while not denting the C13 conclusions -- because they're basically right, there is a very strong consensus, as even Tol himself has admitted. Consensus does not "prove" the consensus view is right, that's one of Tol's straw men. However it does reflect how convincing the real evidence is, among those who can actually read it.
Off topic on this off topic thread, but maybe not too far ... I came across this article on what it's like teaching evolution at the University of Kentucky. As James Krupa notes in this inspired but sobering piece, "there are some students I will never reach." Sound familiar?
We live in a nation where public acceptance of evolution is the second lowest of 34 developed countries, just ahead of Turkey. Roughly half of Americans reject some aspect of evolution, believe the Earth is less than 10,000 years old, and that humans coexisted with dinosaurs. Where I live, many believe evolution to be synonymous with atheism, and there are those who strongly feel I am teaching heresy to thousands of students. A local pastor, whom I’ve never met, wrote an article in the University Christian complaining that, not only was I teaching evolution and ignoring creationism, I was teaching it as a non-Christian, alternative religion.
I won't quote more but it's worth reading, as a note on the science/culture wars seen in another guise here.
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Mar 28, 2015 - 03:59pm PT
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Mar 28, 2015 - 10:11am PT
is there any literature that does not address the issue of climate change?
perhaps EdwardT can post a list of titles... from the climate journal literature.
You're asking about climate journal literature that does not address the issue of climate change?
What an odd request. I'd guess there is climate literature that is not directly relevant to anthropogenic climate change. I'm not sure why you care. I don't.
The current central question in climate science regards the question of the 20th century climate change, especially what it's source is and how to predict the future of the change.
I would agree.
I would say that 100% of the literature is related to answering this question.
Sure. Why not. It makes sense that further understanding any aspect of the climate would help with understanding climate change.
That's a supposition, I will wait for EdwardT's response rebutting that...
What specifically should I be rebutting?
If consensus is built out of a common subject for scientific research (which I'd say is a very good way to define consensus) then there is a very strong consensus among climate researchers as to what the important questions in climate science are.
Um. Yeah. That's reasonable.
EdwardT will attempt to deflect on this... no doubt.
Rebut?
Deflect?
Why?
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Mar 28, 2015 - 04:32pm PT
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If all the scientists are addressing climate change as an issue, then it is an indication of "consensus" of the strongest sort, that they are willing to spend their time pursuing a topic they consider to be important.
It is also true that among all the scientific hypotheses, none explain the "anomaly" more completely than anthropogenic GHG emissions exhausted into the atmosphere.
One can have arguments over the quantitative aspects of Cook's survey, no one has published an independent survey refuting the Cook survey (that I know of) in the literature. Cook's was not the first survey of it's kind, though it was probably the largest, and it is in line with what the previous survey's were indicating.
Why this is so controversial is rather strange...
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dave729
Trad climber
Western America
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Mar 28, 2015 - 05:46pm PT
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The govt dr provides undeniable proof that the simple lure of
receiving unending cash grants to write lots of
'Global Warming Is True... Damn It!' papers
makes the case they are criminals with science degrees.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Mar 28, 2015 - 10:35pm PT
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desperation looks good on you sketch
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Mar 29, 2015 - 06:05am PT
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I'm a fan of publishing key scientific datasets, wherever possible, in venues and formats that are public friendly. Access to data empowers nonspecialists and nonscientists with analytical skills to follow their curiosity, figure things out for themselves, and share their own insights with others. We've got a number of people who do just that on this thread; more power to them.
Obviously those iconic temperature, ice, CO2, sea level and paleoclimate datasets are of this type, hence all the graphs you see whizzing by. Another iconic dataset has turned out to be the list of papers whose abstracts are examined Cook et al. (2013) for their paper "Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature" (open access, props to them).
The data file, in csv format, is here:
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024/media
What that means is that anybody, if they're skeptical, can download these data for themselves and test how replicable Cook et al.'s 97+% conclusion might be. If that's been seriously done I haven't seen it (suggestions are welcome). Probably because people who do have analytical skills recognize the C13 conclusions are basically correct.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Mar 29, 2015 - 06:24am PT
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Cook's team evaluated the abstracts of 11,944 papers, classifying them (from the abstracts alone) into 7 levels of endorsement regarding anthropogenic climate change. Their levels range from "explicit endorsement with quantification" to "explicit rejection with quantification." Here's my tabulation of their results:
Endorsement | Freq. Percent Cum.
-----------------------------+--------------------------- explicit endo/quantification | 64 0.54 0.54
explicit endo/no quant | 922 7.72 8.26
implicit endorsement | 2,910 24.36 32.62
no position | 7,970 66.73 99.35
implicit rejection | 54 0.45 99.80
explicit rej/no quant | 15 0.13 99.92
explicit rej/quantification | 9 0.08 100.00
-----------------------------+--------------------------- Total | 11,944 100.00
So 7,970 of these abstracts stated no discernable position on anthropogenic climate change. 64 + 922 + 2,910 = 3,896 implicitly or explicitly endorse ACC (by their reckoning), 54 + 15 + 9 = 78 reject ACC, and we get 100*3,896/(3,896+78) = 98% endorsement, among abstracts that take any position. Sounds like a consensus, all right. Also it's right in line with other studies that have used much different methods to get at roughly the same question.
Of course if you want that 98% to go away you can play with a calculator using other numbers from this table, or all published science, to get something smaller. Such fiddling hasn't found much traction, however.
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Mar 29, 2015 - 06:36am PT
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Thanks Monolith.
From 2003-2010
AEI received 86.7 million
Heritage Foundation received 76.4 million
and Hoover Institution on War received 45.4 million
Of 208.5 million they received, how much was spent on denying AGW? Denier propaganda?
Where's the proof of how much was spent on denying AGW?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Mar 29, 2015 - 06:40am PT
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But are their classifications biased? 11,944 abstracts is a lot, the number alone could be a deterrent to casual replication. Except scientists long ago discovered this simple trick called "sampling." To demonstrate bias we don't have to re-rate all 11,944 (though that would be ideal), or generate our own population of abstracts through some other method and rate those.
More easily, anyone could just check a random subsample from the C13 data. Percentages calculated from random samples should have 95% confidence intervals of (approximately) 100/sqrt(n), where n is the sample size. So if you randomly sampled 25 abstracts and made your own ratings, the percentages would have confidence intervals of about +/-20 points. That's pretty wide, but if you could do 100 abstracts it gets down to +/-10 points; with 400 it would be +/-5 points. We're in a very do-able range now, you don't need to be a scientist just science literate, and curious enough to check things out.
For example, the post by Wade before I started writing this was number 21,517 on this thread. Let's use that for a pseudo random generator (if you know what that means you know there are better ways, but I'm trying to be transparent here). There are only 11,944 abstracts in the C13 database, so let's just use the first 4 digits of Wade's post, 2151. Here is the abstract corresponding to row #2151 in the C13 database:
Elevated CO2 increases productivity
and invasive species success
in an arid ecosystem
Stanley D. Smith*, Travis E. Huxman*†, Stephen F. Zitzer‡,
Therese N. Charlet*, David C. Housman*, James S. Coleman§,
........
Arid ecosystems, which occupy about 20% of the earth’s terrestrial
surface area, have been predicted to be one of the most responsive
ecosystem types to elevated atmospheric CO2 and associated
global climate change1–3. Here we show, using free-air CO2
enrichment (FACE) technology in an intact Mojave Desert
ecosystem4, that new shoot production of a dominant perennial
shrub is doubled by a 50% increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration
in a high rainfall year. However, elevated CO2 does not
enhance production in a drought year. We also found that aboveground
production and seed rain of an invasive annual grass
increases more at elevated CO2 than in several species of native
annuals. Consequently, elevated CO2 might enhance the longterm
success and dominance of exotic annual grasses in the
region. This shift in species composition in favour of exotic
annual grasses, driven by global change, has the potential to
accelerate the fire cycle, reduce biodiversity and alter ecosystem
function in the deserts of western North America.
C13 classified that abstract a 3, implicit endorsement. What do you think?
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Bob D'A
Trad climber
Taos, NM
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Mar 29, 2015 - 06:43am PT
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EddyT wrote: Chiloe - Love the trollery.
There is the problem with you, no trolling by Larry or Ed, you are just getting your ass handed to you by them.
Ain't that some Shet!!
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Mar 29, 2015 - 06:46am PT
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Or ... today's date is 3/29/2015. Again just using the first 4 digits as a pseudo-pseudo random generator, we look up the abstract in row #3292 of the C13 database:
Environmental impact assessment of conventional and organic milk production
Imke J.M de Boer
ABSTRACT Organic agriculture addresses the public demand to diminish environmental pollution of agricultural production. Until now, however, only few studies tried to determine the integrated environmental impact of conventional versus organic production using life cycle assessment (LCA). The aim of this article was to review prospects and constraints of LCA as a tool to assess the integrated environmental impact of conventional and organic animal production. This aim was illustrated using results from LCAs in the literature and from a pilot study comparing conventional and organic milk production. This review shows that LCAs of different case studies currently cannot be compared directly. Such a comparison requires further international standardisation of the LCA method. A within-case-study comparison of LCAs of conventional and organic production, however, appeared suitable to gain knowledge and to track down main differences in potential environmental impact. Acidification potential of milk production, for example, is for 78–97% due to volatilisation of ammonia, which is not reduced necessarily by changing from conventional to organic milk production. Eutrophication potential per tonne of milk or per ha of farmland was lower for organic than for conventional milk production due to lower fertiliser application rates. Global warming potential of milk production is for 48–65% due to emission of methane. Organic milk production inherently increases methane emission and, therefore, can reduce global warming potential only by reducing emission of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide considerably. Organic milk production reduces pesticide use, whereas it increases land use per tonne of milk. Conclusions regarding potential environmental impact of organic versus conventional milk production, however, are based largely on comparison of experimental farms. To show differences in potential environmental impact among various production systems, however, LCAs should be performed at a large number of practical farms for each production system of interest. Application of LCA on practical farms, however, requires in-depth research to understand underlying processes, and to predict, or measure, variation in emissions realised in practice.
C13 rated this one also a 3, implicit endorsement. What do you think?
See how easy this is? Wouldn't take long even for one person to build a small random sample and get a ballpark check on the C13 conclusions. If their ratings are different, that could be a point of open discussion.
The key for demonstrating bias is not whether every rating agrees; of course there will be random variation. Rather, an argument for bias should demonstrate that there is a systematic tendency, in a sample large enough for statistical significance, that goes in one particular direction.
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Mar 29, 2015 - 07:12am PT
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Bob D'A
Trad climber
Taos, NM
Mar 29, 2015 - 06:43am PT
EddyT wrote: Chiloe - Love the trollery.
There is the problem with you, no trolling by Larry or Ed, you are just getting your ass handed to you by them.
Ain't that some Shet!!
You give me flack for a simple return volley... and then offer your own bit of trollery.
Is this irony?
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Bob D'A
Trad climber
Taos, NM
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Mar 29, 2015 - 07:22am PT
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Eddy...not trolling at all. That is your problem, you confuse facts with trolling.
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Mar 29, 2015 - 07:33am PT
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Bob D'A
Trad climber
Taos, NM
Mar 29, 2015 - 07:22am PT
Eddy...not trolling at all. That is your problem, you confuse facts with trolling.
You, Wade and a few others typically show up with nothing more than petty ankle biting.
Little more than "yur dum, derp, derp, derp".
And you think it's not trollery. That's funny.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Mar 29, 2015 - 07:35am PT
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Chiloe - All of your posts on the Cook study are swell. But they don't address the specifics discussed in the piece in The Australian, that I brought up yesterday.
Sure they do, Sketch. Can you think?
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WBraun
climber
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Mar 29, 2015 - 07:49am PT
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You're one too Malemute.
You're a typical self righteous hypocrite .....
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Mar 29, 2015 - 08:06am PT
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Chiloe - Several times, The Chief asked if you were funded by "green" groups... groups with a vested interest in pushing the warmist agenda. As far as I know, you never answered his questions.
Do you receive funding from any groups that may directly benefit from policies intended to combat global warming?
If so, do you disclose those relationships on all your published literature?
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Bob D'A
Trad climber
Taos, NM
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Mar 29, 2015 - 08:14am PT
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EddyT wrote: You, Wade and a few others typically show up with nothing more than petty ankle biting.
Which is way more than you add to the debate.
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