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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Feb 23, 2015 - 06:22pm PT
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BTW, what has lead to the increase in grain production? Are we getting more per acre now, of just farming more acres?
Think the upward trend will continue?
Wheat yield has increased from 2.48 (metric tons/hectare) in 1994 to 3.25 (mt/h) in 2014. The increase looks fairly constant.
http://www.ers.usda.gov/datafiles/Wheat_Wheat_Data/Yearbook_Tables/World_Production_Supply_and_Disappearance/wheatyearbooktable03.htm
I have no idea if the trend will continue. I kind of doubt it.
My point, in all of this, was to point out how wheat/grain production has done in the face of global warming.
We've been hearing about global food shortages for the last 50 years. The experts consistently get it wrong.
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Bob D'A
Trad climber
Taos, NM
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Feb 23, 2015 - 06:35pm PT
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My point, in all of this, was to point out how wheat/grain production has done in the face of global warming.
Used more water, quite simple.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Feb 23, 2015 - 07:19pm PT
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The experts consistently get it wrong.
If that were true, then a lot of stuff that we count on working would not work so well. For example, we trust that bridges are engineered properly, that airplanes will land amid a chaotic schedule, that our computers will transfer funds correctly, and lots of other stuff.
Just because you can point to a few cases where the "experts" did not nail a fine-pointed prediction doesn't mean that all experts are wrong.
But yeah, there have been some pretty whacky predictions.
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Feb 24, 2015 - 04:50am PT
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Willie W.-H. Soon is a co-author.
Is there a connection between this study and the NYT piece on his funding???
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Feb 24, 2015 - 06:32am PT
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From IPCC TAR
In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Feb 24, 2015 - 08:29am PT
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I find it telling when people take quotes out of context. I makes me wonder about the motivation of these people.
EdT seems to claim that his views aren't slanted. If that's the case, then why do all of his posts favor the climate-science denial POV. If his views aren't slanted, then why does he quote out of context?
Surely he'll claim that he us just innocently posting, and it's our interpretation of his posts that lead us astray. I say bullsh#t.
Here's a link to the page containing the quote, you can decide for yourself the context:
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/501.htm
ION, there's this:
Top climate scientist Rajendra Pachauri has stepped down as head of the United Nations’ Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change amid an investigation in India over sexual harassment. A female researcher at Pachauri’s group, The Energy and Resources Institute, accused him of sending her harassing email and text messages. Pachauri’s attorneys say his accounts and phone were hacked.
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Feb 24, 2015 - 09:09am PT
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K-man -
Tell us how the above quote was out of context. In your own words.
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raymond phule
climber
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Feb 24, 2015 - 09:25am PT
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Tell us how the above quote was out of context. In your own words.
LOL, it is one sentence in the middle of a paragraph and it is clear from the whole paragraph what they mean. I would say that it is kind of a definition of a out of context quote.
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dirtbag
climber
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Feb 24, 2015 - 09:28am PT
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
Feb 24, 2015 - 09:09am PT
K-man -
Tell us how the above quote was out of context. In your own words.
Go away, little fly.
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Feb 24, 2015 - 09:58am PT
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LOL, it is one sentence in the middle of a paragraph and it is clear from the whole paragraph what they mean. I would say that it is kind of a definition of a out of context quote.
Even though it's part of a larger statement, it's still valid by itself.
How is the quoted sentence misleading?
ION, how about Rajendra "the Perv" Pachauri, leaving the IPCC?
He's not just a liar. He's also a sexual predator.... um... er... I mean an "alleged" sexual predator.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Feb 24, 2015 - 10:03am PT
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He's not just a liar.
What did he lie about, Sketch?
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raymond phule
climber
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Feb 24, 2015 - 10:26am PT
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How is the quoted sentence misleading?
Because it can be interpreted incorrectly, especially by people that don't understand the meaning of the technical words used.
Or the other way around. Why quote one sentence when the whole paragraph explain much better what the authors wants to say?
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Feb 24, 2015 - 11:07am PT
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Ray - You keep using generic rules of composition, which may (or may not) apply.
K-man indicated the sentence was misleading.
As a stand alone statement, is it true?
If so, please explain how it is misleading.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Feb 24, 2015 - 11:11am PT
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If it stands alone, then it would not hurt to just add the next sentence to your quote, right?
I challenge you to just add the next sentence, then explain why it doesn't change the possible meanings of your quoted sentence.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Feb 24, 2015 - 11:35am PT
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Well, I have to hit the road. Here are just those two sentences.
In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. The most we can expect to achieve is the prediction of the probability distribution of the system's future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions.
In other words, we can't predict the exact climate state at a particular time, but we can show a likelihood distribution range they should be in.
This is quite a bit different then just showing the first sentence which would lead some people to think that nothing can be predicted about the climate.
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Digits
Trad climber
Ca
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Feb 24, 2015 - 12:15pm PT
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Ding,Ding,Ding! Love that reply Dingus
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Feb 24, 2015 - 12:20pm PT
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the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.
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