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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Feb 10, 2015 - 08:00pm PT
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TGT, here's a little primer on adjustments.
You 'skeptics' look quite foolish on this issue.
[Click to View YouTube Video]
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Feb 10, 2015 - 08:05pm PT
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Interesting you put up the illustration of temp adjustments TGT.
Yesterday Chiloe put up BEST's defense of its global temp anomaly series. This was in response to the growing news of discovery of massive adjustments being found around the globe by the various government purveyors of global temp fabrication series. Seemingly these fabricsted temp products are meant to alter the past and present anomalies to line up with the GCM projection and hence usher in a period of serfdom to the populace. Curiously, as Chiloe alludes to, BEST is percieved to be independent and their leanings purported to be skeptical, so therefore should have no dog In this fight. Well, after posting the same defense on Judith Curry's Climate etc. and defending it ,as well as the various government global anomaly fabrications, in comments for nearly 24 hours straight , it's safe to throw out the illusion of their independence from the AGW industry.
I'm watching in amusement this defense and the evolution of the news cycle on this subject. Hopefully, the various temp purveyors will step in and with typical government work ineptitude shoot themselves in the foot. Let their be hope and change.
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Feb 11, 2015 - 06:20am PT
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Judy Curry and Richard Muller have no issue with the adjustments
Thanks for posting the piece.
In summary, it is possible to look through 40,000 stations and select those that the algorithm has warmed; and, it’s possible to ignore those that the algorithm has cooled. As the spatial maps show it is also possible to select entire continents where the algorithm has warmed the record; and, it’s possible to focus on other continents were the opposite is the case. Globally however, the effect of adjustments is minor. It’s minor because on average the biases that require adjustments mostly cancel each other out.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 11, 2015 - 07:03am PT
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but somehow our local 'skeptics' understand the issue deeper and cry conspiracy!
This temperature-adjustment hysterics turn out to be not just a good test for whether people are science literate, but also (whether science literate or not) are they actually skeptical. Upthread I cited a recent post by Stephen Mosher, himself formerly an actual skeptic, in which he had this exchange with a fake skeptic:
” I’ve missed the calls for pre–1960’s temps to be adjusted down while adjusting post- 1960’s temps upwards.”
you are a bad skeptic. Can you find stations where the past is cooled and present warmed?
YUP. The algorithm estimates the smallest change required to minimize the error of prediction.
This diabolical piece of code sometimes cools the present. sometimes cools the past. sometimes warms the present. sometimes warms the past. You read a blog that focused on a few cases.
Bad skeptic. you should have asked him if he looked at them all.
A) if he did look at all of them, then he cherry picked and fooled you. OUCH
B) if he didnt look at all of them, then he’s lazy and he fooled you. Double OUCH.
Did you know the algorithm cools large portions of Africa? the algorithm must have missed the secret memo to warm the world.
Apart from working as a test for science literacy and skepticism, eagerness to believe that tens of thousands of scientists engage in a global conspiracy to scare people by raising temperature trends -- seems to be a fine indicator for conspiracist ideation. Lewandowsky could not design a better one.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Feb 11, 2015 - 08:13am PT
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different methods are used to obtain the land surface temperature time series, all of them are published...
this 2013 paper by the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) can be found at their web-site
http://scitechnol.com/2327-4581/2327-4581-1-103.pdf
[I've included this screen grab of the article to show that Judith Curry is a co-author, she stands behind the results of the paper]
Abstract
A new mathematical framework is presented for producing maps and large-scale averages of temperature changes from weather station thermometer data for the purposes of climate analysis. The method allows inclusion of short and discontinuous temperature records, so nearly all digitally archived thermometer data can be used. The framework uses the statistical method known as Kriging to interpolate data from stations to arbitrary locations on the Earth. Iterative weighting is used to reduce the influence of statistical outliers. Statistical uncertainties are calculated by subdividing the data and comparing the results from statistically independent subsamples using the Jackknife method. Spatial uncertainties from periods with sparse geographical sampling are estimated by calculating the error made when we analyze post-1960 data using similarly sparse spatial sampling. Rather than “homogenize” the raw data, an automated procedure identifies discontinuities in the data; the data are then broken into two parts at those times, and the parts treated as separate records. We apply this new framework to the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) monthly land temperature dataset, and obtain a new global land temperature reconstruction from 1800 to the present. In so doing, we find results in close agreement with prior estimates made by the groups at NOAA, NASA, and at the Hadley Center/Climate Research Unit in the UK. We find that the global land mean temperature increased by 0.89 ± 0.06°C in the difference of the Jan 2000-Dec 2009 average from the Jan 1950-Dec 1959 average (95% confidence for statistical and spatial uncertainties).
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 11, 2015 - 08:18am PT
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Of course the conspiracy is far larger than all the scientists who work with temperature records. While they were conspiring to raise temperature records from Paraguay, their co-conspirators in glaciology have been working hard to melt glaciers all over the Andes! Since even climbers have noticed the glaciers are actually melting, this must have been quite a feat for the conspirators.
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Feb 11, 2015 - 08:21am PT
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Of course the conspiracy is far larger than all the scientists who work with temperature records.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Feb 11, 2015 - 08:28am PT
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I posted the paper so that EdwardT and rick could reproduce that analysis and tell us what they think is wrong with it... and I mean to reveal the errors in assumptions and calculations in a quantitative manner.
Hopefully they can inform us of their scientific criticisms of the work of BEST.
(I'm not holding my breath on this).
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Cragar
climber
MSLA - MT
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Feb 11, 2015 - 08:31am PT
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^^Could be all the 'networking' they learned about in GreekLife on campus.^^
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WBraun
climber
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Feb 11, 2015 - 08:31am PT
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(I'm not holding my breath on this).
No one can hold breath longer than 10 minutes anyways.
Longer will cause one to have their gross physical body to be taken away ....
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Feb 11, 2015 - 08:49am PT
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I posted the paper so that EdwardT and rick could reproduce that analysis and tell us what they think is wrong with it... and I mean to reveal the errors in assumptions and calculations in a quantitative manner.
Hopefully they can inform us of their scientific criticisms of the work of BEST.
(I'm not holding my breath on this).
You want me to reproduce the study and critique it?
Why? Have I been critical of it?
Or is this just another smug condescending effort to put me in my place? ;-)
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Feb 11, 2015 - 09:22am PT
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Ah EdT, just like a poster who got banned and had all his posts trashed (Sketch), you write posts that seem to be from a denier's POV, but you never directly commit to your own viewpoint. That way when people respond to your posts, you can cry foul saying "What have I done??"
Your latest post just above is a perfect example. You post up stuff that makes it seem like you're carrying the "the temperature records have been hacked" torch, and when people respond to you on this viewpoint, you play ignorant:
You want me to reproduce the study and critique it?
Why? Have I been critical of it?
This ploy is just like what Sktetch used to do.
So, if you don't think the temperature records were hacked, why do you post up the denier talking points about this subject? You make it seem like you're promoting that point of view.
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Feb 11, 2015 - 09:35am PT
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Your latest post just above is a perfect example. You post up stuff that makes it seem like you're carrying the "the temperature records have been hacked" torch
Like this morning, when I thanked Mono for posting the piece from Climate Etc. and quoted the following?
In summary, it is possible to look through 40,000 stations and select those that the algorithm has warmed; and, it’s possible to ignore those that the algorithm has cooled. As the spatial maps show it is also possible to select entire continents where the algorithm has warmed the record; and, it’s possible to focus on other continents were the opposite is the case. Globally however, the effect of adjustments is minor. It’s minor because on average the biases that require adjustments mostly cancel each other out.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Feb 11, 2015 - 09:36am PT
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Why? Have I been critical of it?
Or is this just another smug condescending effort to put me in my place?
you've got an uninformed opinion of it, based on your disagreement with the result.
But you don't have anything other than that, and your wacky conspiracy theory, to back up your opinion.
...if you think that my calling you out is a "smug and condescending effort" that's your opinion. The fact is you don't have anyway of telling by yourself whether or not the paper is correct, you depend on others' telling you...
if you are "smug" in letting those others tell you what opinion to have, that's fine by me, it justifies my ignoring your regurgitation of those others' opinions (I can find them myself elsewhere).
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Feb 11, 2015 - 09:38am PT
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Don't you believe in evolution Ed? Can't Curry's understanding grow and evolve ? I believe she is much more certain these days that the range of uncertainty of various claimed knowns and many unknowns is much greater than the smug claims of AGW industry dependents and goal oriented funding agencies pronouncements.
Now Ed, your entire argument here revolves around your opponents inabilities to reproduce two of the three (mathematics and statistics) redundant lines of language contained in the modern scientific paper form. At times you claim we don't even understand the third redundancy, the english language. That's a little ridiculous and you're sounding like a broken record endlessly stuck on repeat.
The issue here is if any of the global temp anomaly series are dependable representations of reality after many alterations. The various government agency GTA series are not trusted, considered to be corrupted to push an agenda by a majority of the public. BEST was not named in any of these discoveries of massive temp reconstruction corruption. So its curious that its current managers are defending themselves and by extension the government sponsored purveyors?
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Feb 11, 2015 - 09:41am PT
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Like this morning, when I thanked Mono for posting the piece from Climate Etc. and quoted the following?
No, not that post EdT, the other one with the image.
Nudge, nudge.
It doesn't really say much, but it leaves me with the impression that you're saying "Yep, of course the conspiracy is far larger than all the scientists who work with temperature records."
As I stated, you don't directly state your POV, but post things that make readers think they know your POV. Then, when they react to this imagined viewpoint, you cry, "What have I done?"
It's better to be straightforward. That way people don't have to guess at the meaning of your posts. Unless, of course, you're trying to troll for responses.
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Feb 11, 2015 - 09:46am PT
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you've got an uninformed opinion of it, based on your disagreement with the result.
What are you talking about?
Please post my quote supporting your claim.
But you don't have anything other than that, and your wacky conspiracy theory, to back up your opinion.
...if you think that my calling you out is a "smug and condescending effort" that's your opinion. The fact is you don't have anyway of telling by yourself whether or not the paper is correct, you depend on others' telling you...
if you are "smug" in letting those others tell you what opinion to have, that's fine by me, it justifies my ignoring your regurgitation of those others' opinions (I can find them myself elsewhere).
----------------------------
K-man - You crack me up. Such an active imagination.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Feb 11, 2015 - 10:21am PT
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It's better to be straightforward. That way people don't have to guess at the meaning of your posts. Unless, of course, you're trying to troll for responses.
seems Sketchy to me.
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McHale's Navy
Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
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Feb 11, 2015 - 11:54am PT
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Don't you believe in evolution Ed? No, you are the one that probably does not believe in evolution Rick......much higher likelihood for you.
various government agency GTA series are not trusted, considered to be corrupted to push an agenda by a majority of the public.
A majority? According to who? Watts? See, that's what you do. You corrupt things. That's all you can do.
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