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Chewybacca
Trad climber
Montana, Whitefish
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Mar 10, 2014 - 07:07pm PT
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Cosgrove, are you the pot or the kettle?
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Tvash
climber
Seattle
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Mar 10, 2014 - 07:09pm PT
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Every once in a while I have to step over some dogshit while walking in my hood - but its still a nice hood. As for self identifying verbal abusers - every site has a couple chained to a tire somewhere. They're part of the shrubbery.
They'll dog me for a short while, then quietly f*#k off to dog someone else. It's a predictable dynamic.
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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Mar 10, 2014 - 07:34pm PT
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The Alberta Oil sands are kind of unique. They can be exploited economically. Because of that, they WILL be exploited. Canada has a very well developed mineral and hydrocarbon exploration history.
Most minerals in Canada are "Crown Lands," with the royalties going to the government. Similar to the Prudhoe Bay field, which is on state of Alaska owned land.
The Alaskan Pipeline has a capacity of 2.2 million bbls/day, but it produced at full capacity for only a couple of years. I believe that it is moving about 1.1 million bbls/day right now.
The Keystone pipeline has a capacity of 750,000 bbls/day or so. Since we use 19 million per day in the U.S. it will be a small but still significant part of our liquids needs.
I think that it will probably be approved eventually. The direct environmental impacts are not that great. The anti side is not doing themselves any favors by exaggerating the problems. A pipeline over land is not a candidate for huge spills. Onshore spills are easy to detect and usually happen on older lines. This line is big, and they will be able to pig it regularly.
I am ambivalent. Yes, it is more supply from friendly neighbors, but it doesn't do anything but kick the climate change can down the road.
Until we address our insanely high per capita oil consumption, by far the most lavish in the world, arguing about a pipeline is way off topic.
Creating hysteria about risk to the aquifer doesn't do the enviro side any good. They need to approach this truthfully.
I dunno if you guys know this, but the southern third of the pipeline is already built and in use. I haven't heard of any problems. Have any of you?
The big problem is that the U.S. domestic production capacity peaked back in the seventies, and the world production capacity is very close, or even past, its peak production capacity.
So we are running out of domestic oil. We have a buttload of natural gas.
I crack up when I see people throw out the term "big oil." Until you really understand oil markets, you will never realize that market demand, the flip side of the equation, is huge. We pollute the skies and what are people worried about? 3 dollar gas. That is just pathetic.
We need a total paradigm shift. Until that happens it is business as usual.
Warren Buffet has little impact on oil markets. He owns a (singular) railroad company. Rail is the most efficient way to move goods, energy wise. So what is wrong with that? Pipelines are more efficient and cheaper than rail transport of oil. I have a hard time getting my head around how a pipeline is BAD.
You can also post aerial photos of the tar sands operations. So what? Do you have any idea where your copper comes from? A lot comes from Chile. All mines can be described thus: A hole in the ground with a pile of rocks next to it. Our lifestyles consume vast amounts of natural resources.
I will say this: We won't change our habits regarding oil consumption until other sources are cheaper. When you get down to it and look without colored glasses, few people are altruists, and most scream bloody murder when gas prices go up. These same people create this "big oil" bogeyman out of thin air. The big oil companies are mainly downstream..refining and marketing. I work in the upstream part of the industry, and am out on a drilling rig right now.
When I drive into town, I see people driving alone in big SUV's and pickup trucks. Nobody is driving Honda Civics. Back in the seventies, during the big price shock, people dumped their land sharks for Honda's in only a couple of years.
Our big cars are more efficient than in the past (CAFE standards are a GREAT idea), but they are still wasteful compared to high mileage autos driven by a single person.
We have had a consistent oil policy since Reagan: Cheap oil at any cost. A lot of our foreign policy and relationships have to do with the big exporting nations, any one of which makes Exxon look like a mosquito. That is where the muscle is. Saudi Arabia being the largest exporter by far.
I can go on about how the Saudi's flooded the market and drove prices down during the eighties to regain market share. They can produce a barrel of oil for only a few bucks. It costs us 30 times as much, at least.
Oil is 100 bucks per barrel. I didn't know if I would see prices this high in my lifetime, but they appear hear to stay. The Saudis have already said that if a technology appears that is cheaper than oil, they will flood the market to drive prices down and force that technology out of the market.
As much as I hate the Koch Brothers, they are a fly on the ass of Saudi Arabia. Hell, we get very little of our imports from the Middle East. We are there because they are going to be the last ones standing when other areas are in deep decline, production-wise.
I don't see where the pipeline has any real significance here. It is an arrangement between us and Canada. It is cheaper for them to sell it to us, but even if we don't buy it, they will try to export it to Japan and China, who need it. The logistical problem is crossing the mountains to the B.C. Coast. If those mountains weren't there, Canada would already have a big export terminal there.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Mar 10, 2014 - 07:46pm PT
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"but it doesn't do anything but kick the climate change can down the road."
Hence the rub.
With the pipeline,or any FF development.
When are WE going to seriously take steps to stop,or deaccelerate our addiction to FF's?
And do not call me names.
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Tvash
climber
Seattle
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Mar 10, 2014 - 07:50pm PT
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I agree that we need a paradigm shift to conservation and alternative fuels. Wind power here is on the high end of normal pricing per kW - and its getting more competitive.
I don't agree that if it can be exploited, it will be. In a regulatory vacuum, yes, that may be true. We're moving away from coal, despite its being the cheapest way to generate power, precisely for the same reasons we should continue to deny the Keystone permit - its too environmentally damaging. The incentives to fully exploit the oil sands are huge - but there is no inevitability in human affairs. It's all a choice.
Regarding a new pipeline across BC - if Keystone is killed, that makes a BC pipeline much more susceptible to being killed by public pressure, not less. Killing Keystone would provide a 'how to' for opponents.
Yup, any strip mine is ugly - copper, coal, but we're talking about oil sands here. I think I'm the only person here that's actually worked in those refineries up there and seen the place first hand - just providing some visuals for folks who haven't seen that part of the world so its not so abstract.
Our world out here in Seattle is very different than the one you've observed, base. There has been a huge shift towards fuel efficient vehicles and car shares, increased urban density (very key to conservation), public transport, and green buildings. The wind farms have expanded enormously in the past decade. My peeps don't complain about gas prices, either - I think that's more of a conservative hotpoint, actually.
As for supply and demand, I think most people recognize how that works. Wish they'd think about that with regards to this stupid Drug War more, though.
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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Mar 10, 2014 - 08:01pm PT
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Hey, tell me who "Big Oil" is.
And tell me who killed an alternative that was price competitive.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Mar 10, 2014 - 08:08pm PT
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You must know,why don't you tell us?
And why is it price competitive?
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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Mar 10, 2014 - 08:11pm PT
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I also can't find any post of substance that Cosgrove posted.
Natural Gas prices are in the toilet. It almost buried Chesapeake, the 2nd largest natural gas producer in the U.S.
If only there were some ways to artificially raise natural gas prices. No way. The producers almost went belly up.
You must know,why don't you tell us?
Well, the only one with that kind of muscle is the Saudi's. They carefully adjust their production to keep oil prices where they like it.
No company, or group of companies, has even close to that much production capacity. You have to understand that only the Saudi's and the other big exporting nations actually can control price. Geez. They set production quotas. If they produced flat out, oil prices would collapse.
It isn't that hard to grasp.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Mar 10, 2014 - 08:21pm PT
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All the more reason to wean off of the stuff.
That is not hard to grasp,in it's own right.
Chesapeake is all over the Marcellus,I know it cost a lot for those ops.
Why are they not making money?
NG has had nothing but steady increases in cost over here,and they must have made a killing this year.
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Tvash
climber
Seattle
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Mar 10, 2014 - 08:24pm PT
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Thanks for the update. Regarding the BC pipeline, I was just speaking in general terms - ie, out my ass, thinking the project hadn't yet been approved.
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yosemite 5.9
climber
santa cruz
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Mar 10, 2014 - 08:37pm PT
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Big News! A pipeline already runs from Alberta to Houston. The last phase would only shorten the distance of an existing line.
Here's a map!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline
The Ogallala Aquifer is indeed large and important. But oil floats, so even if there is a spill, I doubt that the aquifer would be imperiled. At least the spill would be contained on land where it can be cleaned up, not drifting around the Gulf of Mexico.
Besides, it also costs money to ship oil by rail or by the ocean. The pipeline would reduce the use of these energy intensive shipping methods.
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skcreidc
Social climber
SD, CA
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Mar 10, 2014 - 08:47pm PT
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The most balanced, and from my perspective truthfull, posts here are by BASE104. No doubt the oil companies (you, BASE104 are a part of BIG OIL) are protecting what they percieve as their interests future and current. But, the demand drives the equasion. And the demand is HUGE. Even though some of you no doubt are very careful about your energy use, most Americans still drive many miles each day. And oil is used for many many other things than making gasoline and diesel. You could drive electric. But the batteries are NOT their yet. Basically I estimate they are a net pollution contributor.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Mar 10, 2014 - 08:54pm PT
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Base, here is a few elaborations and corrections to aid you. TAPS is down to 540,00 bbl a day and Alyeska anticipates substantial problems at flows below 400,000. Aramco's production capabilities and condition of its oil fields are closely guarded secrets-some say they are already in decline and additional pumping capacity estimates are unrealistic. Russia is a close second in exports and according to some sources may surpass the Saudi's in recoverable reserves and production. Buffett is expanding positions in other railways and producers of railway equipment such as tanker cars. If these guys whining about KXL and big oil were sensible they would redirect their anger towards their representatives to force redirection of funds from subsidies and doomsday studies to viable technologies such as expanded NG use, new generation nuclear, and the storage problems rendering wind and solar as ineffective in comparison to hydrocarbons.
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kunlun_shan
Mountain climber
SF, CA
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Mar 10, 2014 - 08:56pm PT
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...thinking the project hadn't yet been approved.
Tvash, the Northern Gateway pipeline has certainly not yet been approved, and no one knows if it will be or not. There is considerable First Nations opposition to the pipeline across northern B.C. The only native groups who have cozied up to Enbridge are those whose land the pipeline won't be going through. Enbridge offered them money for PR, and to make it look like someone was supporting their venture. I bet if the Feds approve and try to push the pipeline through, they'll need to bring in the military for a real war in the woods. The Oka Crisis will look like a Christmas party in comparison :-)
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/enbridge-taps-jim-prentice-to-rescue-northern-gateway-first-nations-talks-1.2560859
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Mar 10, 2014 - 08:56pm PT
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The date of this thread just went 30 years backwards.[not you Kunlun]
By the way,hope you got some good skiing in ,kunlun.
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Tvash
climber
Seattle
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Mar 10, 2014 - 09:15pm PT
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Oh, so I guessed right about the BC pipeline.
INNERNUT WIN!!!!!!
Canukistanis versus first nations?
For once, just once, we wouldn't be the bad guys.
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kunlun_shan
Mountain climber
SF, CA
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Mar 10, 2014 - 09:17pm PT
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Prepare for scenes likely a lot worse than this.
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Tvash
climber
Seattle
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Mar 10, 2014 - 09:27pm PT
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Yeah, at Wounded Knee those photo ops included lots of 50 cal rounds.
Get subjugation right, Northern Brothers! Get it right!
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Tvash
climber
Seattle
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Mar 10, 2014 - 09:39pm PT
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Where was Canada's Andrew Jackson when you needed him!
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kunlun_shan
Mountain climber
SF, CA
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Mar 10, 2014 - 10:01pm PT
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Jim, I don't think there'll be enough cops in Canada for the level of opposition. Will need the military I think. Northern BC is pretty united on this one.
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