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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 16, 2015 - 04:51pm PT
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Where's the RSS, Chiloe.
Here's your RSS, Chief:
None of the anti-science folks here seem to have read this when Roy Spencer posted it on his blog,
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/07/on-the-divergence-between-the-uah-and-rss-global-temperature-records/
or the first time I re-posted it here,
http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=970221&msg=2338032#msg2338032
or the second time I re-posted it here,
http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=970221&msg=2514048#msg2514048
So here's a third time for the science-literate to shake their heads, and others not to read.
Over the last ten years or so there has been a growing inconsistency between the UAH and Remote Sensing Systems versions of the global average lower tropospheric temperature anomalies. Since I sometimes get the question why there is this discrepancy, I decided it was time to address it.
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As can be seen, in the last 10 years or so the RSS temperatures have been cooling relative to the UAH temperatures (or UAH warming relative to RSS…same thing). The discrepancy is pretty substantial…since 1998, the divergence is over 50% of the long-term temperature trends seen in both datasets.
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Anyway, my UAH cohort and boss John Christy, who does the detailed matching between satellites, is pretty convinced that the RSS data is undergoing spurious cooling because RSS is still using the old NOAA-15 satellite which has a decaying orbit, to which they are then applying a diurnal cycle drift correction based upon a climate model, which does not quite match reality. We have not used NOAA-15 for trend information in years…we use the NASA Aqua AMSU, since that satellite carries extra fuel to maintain a precise orbit.
But, until the discrepancy is resolved to everyone’s satisfaction, those of you who REALLY REALLY need the global temperature record to show as little warming as possible might want to consider jumping ship, and switch from the UAH to RSS dataset.
Time to find a new talking point.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 16, 2015 - 05:30pm PT
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Time to find a new talking point, really Chiloe?
What is there published margin of error? Couldn't be 250% of the claimed rise of .04 c ( that's four one hundreds of a single degree for those of you using english as their first language), could it? And even that tiny and phony value is the result of furious work at the fudge factory.
No amigo's, this release is just another political theatric meant to gin up support for the big Paris shindig.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Jan 16, 2015 - 05:37pm PT
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What is there published margin of error?
what do you know about "margin of error", rick? from my experience asking you, you don't have the vaguest idea.
sounds good to ask though, but it gets into a discussion you are ill equipped to comprehend.
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Bob D'A
Trad climber
Taos, NM
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Jan 16, 2015 - 06:25pm PT
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"Only we the scientist can figure it out properly. Trust us."
But a navy man and a construction worker are much more qualified.
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Bob D'A
Trad climber
Taos, NM
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Jan 16, 2015 - 06:36pm PT
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Chuff wrote: Far better than a Pizza spinner/burner such as yourself Bobda.
You are a complete idiot.
A little man who couldn't get/keep a job expect on the government dole.
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Bob D'A
Trad climber
Taos, NM
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Jan 16, 2015 - 08:04pm PT
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"Oh, did you even graduate the 6th grade, Bobda. You truly are a winner that lives on nothing more than table tips."
Funny coming from you.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 16, 2015 - 11:31pm PT
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What, Ed, does it matter what you call it. It can be range of uncertainty, an imagined 95% confidence level range, or margin of error. It all boils down to a ginned up guesstimate that just so happens to advance the radical AGW cause. That the tiny .02 GISS estimated record anomaly increase is 250% less than BESTS range of uncertainty means 2014's anomaly is statistically insignificant and certainly not an end to the pause.
Now why don't you fully peruse the linked article below. There is economic warfare quietly raging, new geopolitical alliances arising from necessity, and full cooperation at Paris will likely be a figment of the CAGW communities sick imagination. The world is a hungry and dangerous place, it's time to get real.
http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-losing-european-gas-2015-1
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 17, 2015 - 08:45am PT
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Nothing like a good old fashioned nuclear winter to mitigate all this climate madness, eh Frosty?
Actually, I rather believe we are seeing the descent of the west into madness and the ascent of the east into rationality. Self Imposed Independent assured destruction; it does't require exchange of fire when one side is busy shooting itself.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Jan 17, 2015 - 10:33am PT
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hey rick, how's that Iditarod thingy working out for you?
Bob Hallinen/The Anchorage Daily News
sure to become an iconic image...
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 17, 2015 - 11:50am PT
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Hey Ed, are you talking weather now? The Iditarod is still a month away.
Frosty, as far as potus doing any serious saber rattling; you'll know it if and when our resident Dr. Strangelove (stockpile babysitter)goes silent, on all these silly threads.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 17, 2015 - 01:06pm PT
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Weather varies, climate change moves the center that it varies around, and/or the degree of variation -- shifting the distribution of hot and cold events as well. That's why climatologists show variation together with trends; the new "record" warm year per NOAA and NASA matters because of its context, a longer-term warming trend, and the buildup of greenhouse gases that are changing the Earth's thermal balance. Pointing out that it doesn't beat the old record by much is pretty silly in this context because the "old" record was 2010.
10 of the 10 warmest years in NASA's 135-year record have occurred since 1998, and 9 of the 10 since 2002. That's a reality less silly than arguing about the difference from 2010 to 2014.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 17, 2015 - 01:16pm PT
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In keeping with Ed's Alaska note, here's yet another sign of the Great Climate Conspiracy:
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Jan 17, 2015 - 01:54pm PT
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Blog network analysis: WUWT & Co. isolated from science
reads a headline at Variable Variability, an interesting and intelligent blog by Victor Venema, a meteorologist at the University of Bonn.
This analysis looks more like a high school social network than a layout of the climate change blogosphere.
Message: WUWT - not one of the cool kids.
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Jan 17, 2015 - 03:28pm PT
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WUWT does a good job exposing the BS propaganda served up AGW advocates. The Jarreau "analysis" is good example.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 17, 2015 - 03:47pm PT
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WUWT does a good job exposing the BS propaganda served up AGW advocates.
Or in an alternative characterization by And Then There's Physics, WUWT is an "anti-science hate site." Which explains why its cluster (and judging from the comments there, most of its readers) are so isolated from real science. However WUWT does feed its ideological base the arguments they want to hear.
The Jarreau "analysis" is good example.
Nope that's not right either. Here's the big picture:
https://155a2078255626663e33566e796f12caf0e22ee8.googledrive.com/host/0B5FtkJ8LVwqhTFNOQ0xwOTFxUHM/network/
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 17, 2015 - 04:24pm PT
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Amazing, at 29, 000 posts again and still the same friendly banter.
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Mark Force
Trad climber
Cave Creek, AZ
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Jan 17, 2015 - 07:28pm PT
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NYTimes: 2014 Breaks Heat Record, Challenging Global Warming Skeptics
http://nyti.ms/1KQtOq8
Extreme land temperatures were accompanied by an unusually warm ocean surface virtually everywhere except around Antarctica, scientists reported.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jan 18, 2015 - 08:59am PT
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I love how the propaganda liberal news machine just keeps on exaggerating the reality and so many play into it.
More noise please.
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StahlBro
Trad climber
San Diego, CA
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Jan 18, 2015 - 10:14am PT
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Facts have a liberal bias
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