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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Jan 15, 2015 - 06:12pm PT
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http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/15/science/earth/new-research-may-solve-a-puzzle-in-sea-levels-rise.html
doi:10.1038/nature14093
http://www.nature.com/articles/nature14093.epdf
Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise
C. C. Hay, E. Marrow, R. E. Kopp, J. X. Mitorvica
Estimating and accounting for twentieth-century global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise is critical to characterizing current and future human-induced sea-level change. Several previous analyses of tide gauge records1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6—employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness of the data and to constrain the geometry of long-term sea-level change—have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year. Efforts to account for this rate by summing estimates of individual contributions from glacier and ice-sheet mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and changes in land water storage fall significantly short in the period before 1990 7. The failure to close the budget of GMSL during this period has led to suggestions that several contributions may have been systematically underestimated8. However, the extent to which the limitations of tide gauge analyses have affected estimates of the GMSL rate of change is unclear. Here we revisit estimates of twentieth-century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques9, 10 and find a rate of GMSL rise from 1901 to 1990 of 1.2 ± 0.2 millimetres per year (90% confidence interval). Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report7 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century sea-level budget. Our analysis, which combines tide gauge records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that GMSL rose at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.7 millimetres per year between 1993 and 2010, consistent with prior estimates from tide gauge records4. The increase in rate relative to the 1901–90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections11 of future sea-level rise.
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In contrast, for the period 1993-2010 - which coincides with the era of satellite altimetry measurements of sea surface height changes29 - the KS estimate is consistent with previous results (Fig. 2). The KS [Kalman Smoothing] estimate, 3.0±0.7 mm/yr (90% CI), is essentially identical to the tide gauge analysis of Church and White4 (2.8±0.5 mm/yr; ref. 23). It is also consistent with the estimate based on TOPEX and Jason altimeter measurements (3.2±0.4 mm/yr; ref. 29 as cited by ref. 23 for the period 1993-2010, see also ref. 7).
To assess the anomalous nature of recent sea-level change, we compute 15-year rates through the KS-derived GMSL time series in Fig. 2 from 1901 to 2010. Figure 4 shows both the time series and distribution of these 96 rates. where the 5 most recent time windows are shown in red. The former is in qualitative agreement with a previous inference of multi-decadal trends in acceleration during the twentieth century30. While the rates show significant variability, the rate for the 1996-2010 time window. 3.1 mm/yr, is the largest of all computed 15-year rates.
We have revisited twentieth century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques that combine sea-level records with physics-based and model derived geometries of the contributing processes. Our estimated GMSL trend for the period 1901-90 (1.2±0.2 mm/yr) is lower than previous estimates, indicating that the rate of GMSL rise during the last two decades represents a more significant increase than previously recognized. Projections of future sea-level rise based on the time series of historical GMSL, notably semi-empirical approaches11, should accordingly be revisited.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 15, 2015 - 07:06pm PT
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Well isn't that semi real world estimate of rate of sea level rise dandy. It would be poetic justice if Al Gore drowned in his Malibu mansion.
What a colossal, no holds barred propaganda campaign. Up is down and black is white along the road to ruin of the fellow travelers.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Jan 15, 2015 - 08:19pm PT
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didn't expect much of any intelligence out of you, rick
where've you been? waiting for someone to post?... and that's all you got?
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 15, 2015 - 11:01pm PT
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And tomorrow yoi'll be trumpeting the warmest year ever Ed.
Oh, the horror of it all.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Jan 16, 2015 - 01:07am PT
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hey rick, that result is a pre-pub version of the article...
Nature is a very important journal, not simply dismissed because they are publishing things you don't like... you have no other objection to the article than that...
weak is a good adjective to describe your current activities on this thread. Why don't you read it and give it you criticism? oh, I forgot, you don't actually understand the quantitative analysis bits... you "intuit" the meaning somehow.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 16, 2015 - 08:28am PT
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NOAA and NASA just published their global surface temperature anomalies for December, completing the last year. NOAA reports the warmest December on record, making 2014 also the warmest year.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 16, 2015 - 08:49am PT
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^^^^^right on cue.
I'm light Frosty? Tell me did you drain my winning bottle, or are you light? Physically, though, I guess I am light in comparison to the piggish physiques of the leading prophets, Mann and Gore, of your sick little religion.
Ed, why bother reading yet another in the endless phony productions of your multi-billion dollar propaganda machine. It follows the tired old script of rewriting the prior history so as to accentuate the present.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 16, 2015 - 08:59am PT
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For more reality-based readers, NASA has updated their surface temperature index as well. Here December was only the second-warmest on record, but even so 2014 became the warmest year.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 16, 2015 - 09:06am PT
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Blog network analysis: WUWT & Co. isolated from science
reads a headline at Variable Variability, an interesting and intelligent blog by Victor Venema, a meteorologist at the University of Bonn.
Paige Brown Jarreau performed a survey among science bloggers. A first result is the fascinating network analysis of science blogs shown above. She also published a PDF where you can zoom in to look at the details. The survey asked every blogger to list three other regularly read science blogs. In the figure above the blogs are the dots and every mention is a link between the dots. The more incoming links, the bigger the dot and name. The links do not show in which direction the link runs. The smallest print is for blogs that participated, but have no incoming links.
Clearly dominating is the blog Not Exactly Rocket Science by Ed Young. Also influential is Bad Astronomy by Phil Plait, who also blogs about climate and the "climate debate". Except for these two outliers, the network is surprisingly egalitarian.
There is likely a sampling bias, but the small number of non-english blogs is striking.
For us the climatic part of the blog universe is naturally most interesting.
Here RealClimate clearly dominates. Even if they are not that active anymore and are calling for a new generation of climate scientists to help them continue high-quality climate science blogging.
....
Emphasized by the automatic coloring scheme is the splendid yellow isolation of WUWT & Co. If there would be no link between WUWT and the Climate Lab Book, they would have no link to science whatsoever.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Jan 16, 2015 - 09:15am PT
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I consider Nature to be a serious journal. It is worth reading the articles to get a view of what science results are considered important.
The journal Science is another serious journal with many important articles.
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6219/1255641
Science 16 January 2015:
Vol. 347 no. 6219
DOI: 10.1126/science.1255641
Marine defaunation: Animal loss in the global ocean
Douglas J. McCauley, Malin L. Pinsky, Stephen R. Palumbi, James A. Estes, Francis H. Joyce, Robert R. Warner
BACKGROUND
Comparing patterns of terrestrial and marine defaunation helps to place human impacts on marine fauna in context and to navigate toward recovery. Defaunation began in earnest tens of thousands of years later in the oceans than it did on land. Although defaunation has been less severe in the oceans than on land, our effects on marine animals are increasing in pace and impact. Humans have caused few complete extinctions in the sea, but we are responsible for many ecological, commercial, and local extinctions. Despite our late start, humans have already powerfully changed virtually all major marine ecosystems.
ADVANCES
Humans have profoundly decreased the abundance of both large (e.g., whales) and small (e.g., anchovies) marine fauna. Such declines can generate waves of ecological change that travel both up and down marine food webs and can alter ocean ecosystem functioning. Human harvesters have also been a major force of evolutionary change in the oceans and have reshaped the genetic structure of marine animal populations. Climate change threatens to accelerate marine defaunation over the next century. The high mobility of many marine animals offers some increased, though limited, capacity for marine species to respond to climate stress, but it also exposes many species to increased risk from other stressors. Because humans are intensely reliant on ocean ecosystems for food and other ecosystem services, we are deeply affected by all of these forecasted changes.
Three lessons emerge when comparing the marine and terrestrial defaunation experiences: (i) today’s low rates of marine extinction may be the prelude to a major extinction pulse, similar to that observed on land during the industrial revolution, as the footprint of human ocean use widens; (ii) effectively slowing ocean defaunation requires both protected areas and careful management of the intervening ocean matrix; and (iii) the terrestrial experience and current trends in ocean use suggest that habitat destruction is likely to become an increasingly dominant threat to ocean wildlife over the next 150 years.
OUTLOOK
Wildlife populations in the oceans have been badly damaged by human activity. Nevertheless, marine fauna generally are in better condition than terrestrial fauna: Fewer marine animal extinctions have occurred; many geographic ranges have shrunk less; and numerous ocean ecosystems remain more wild than terrestrial ecosystems. Consequently, meaningful rehabilitation of affected marine animal populations remains within the reach of managers. Human dependency on marine wildlife and the linked fate of marine and terrestrial fauna necessitate that we act quickly to slow the advance of marine defaunation.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 16, 2015 - 09:17am PT
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Chiloe is trumpetting loudly. Ed where is your backup?
It's funny guys, that the far more encompassing and accurate satellite data sets RSS and UAH show 2014 as seventh and third respectively. And this in spite of a super El Nino which manifested quite differently, affecting basin wide ocean temps with large anomalies in the north pacific- like the huge warm pool parked in the gulf of Alaska. Here is a chance for some real science from the industry-what mechanism (s) caused the unrecognized manifestation of the El Nino this year?
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raymond phule
climber
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Jan 16, 2015 - 10:20am PT
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It's funny guys, that the far more encompassing and accurate satellite data sets RSS and UAH show 2014 as seventh and third respectively.
LOL, you have no idea about the accuracy of any temperature record. The only thing you do is to believe that the record with the least warming is the most accurate one.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 16, 2015 - 10:46am PT
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The blog-network graphic I posted above visualizes the problem. People who circle round in the yellow zone are learning "science" without connection to the real thing. But everything they read tells them they're right, so they're positive! You can see that in many posts here.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Jan 16, 2015 - 02:31pm PT
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how did you calculate that The Chief?
care to layout your data and demonstrate your subtraction abilities?
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Jan 16, 2015 - 02:50pm PT
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from the NOAA website you provided a link to:
Global Temperatures
A record warm December sealed the deal to make 2014 the warmest year across the world's land and ocean surfaces since recordkeeping began in 1880. The average temperature for the year was 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), beating the previous record warmth of 2010 and 2005 by 0.04°C (0.07°F).
This marks the third time in the 21st century a new record high annual temperature has been set or tied and also marks the 38th consecutive year (since 1977) that the annual temperature has been above the long-term average. To date, including 2014, 9 of the 10 warmest years on record have occured during the 21st century. 1998 currently ranks as the fourth warmest year on record.
This is the first time since 1990 the high temperature record was broken in the absence of El Niño conditions at any time during the year in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, as indicated by NOAA's CPC Oceanic Niño Index. This phenomenon generally tends to increase global temperatures around the globe, yet conditions remained neutral in this region during the entire year and the globe reached record warmth despite this.
Six months of 2014 (May, June, August, September, October, and December) were record warm, while April was second warmest, January, March, and July were fourth warmest for their respective months, and November was seventh warmest.
Overall, the global annual temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.06°C (0.11°F) per decade since 1880 and at an average rate of 0.16°C (0.28°F) per decade since 1970.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 16, 2015 - 03:20pm PT
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No real warming since 1998.
Time to find a new talking point.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 16, 2015 - 03:57pm PT
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Not according to the SAT data
Here's UAH Chief. Find a new talking point.
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dave729
Trad climber
Western America
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Jan 16, 2015 - 04:19pm PT
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All the fish
that are no longer in the ocean
got what they deserved for using it as a toilet.
Imagine shytting in the ocean! Uhggg!
Stubborn fish can either embrace the clean planet movement or the
factory trawlers will cure their environmental blindness.
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