Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

Did someone say "Global Warming"?

I posted a temperature (and CO2) graph covering 350 years. Which part of that "most popular deceptive climate graph" did I parrot?

The causes and predictability of the California drought during the three consecutive rainy seasons (November-April) 2011/12 to 2013/14 are analyzed using observations and ensembles of simulations conducted with seven atmosphere models forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs).

Is the California Drought a symptom of long term climate change?
The current drought is not part of a long-term change in California precipitation, which exhibits no appreciable trend since 1895. Key oceanic features that caused precipitation inhibiting atmospheric ridging off the West Coast during 2011-14 were symptomatic of natural internal atmosphere-ocean variability.

Model simulations indicate that human-induced climate change increases California precipitation in mid-winter, with a low-pressure circulation anomaly over the North Pacific, opposite to conditions of the last 3 winters. The same model simulations indicate a decrease in spring precipitation over California. However, precipitation deficits observed during the past three years are an order of magnitude greater than the model simulated changes related to human-induced forcing. Nonetheless, record setting high temperature that accompanied this recent drought was likely made more extreme due to human-induced global warming.

For both the current decade and the next two-decade period, there is a widespread area of subtropical drying as measured by a reduction of P and stronger reduction of P − E which dries Mexico and parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. This pattern is consistent with expectations of hydroclimate change due to rising GHGs (Seager et al. 2014b).

For the current decade this drying area includes California but is very weak. In contrast, for the future period, California north of San Diego and Los Angeles is projected to have an increase in winter half-year P and a slightly smaller increase in P − E (presumably because warming temperatures cause an increase in winter E). The change in California is made up of an increase in mid-winter P but a decrease in spring that connects with the interior southwest drying (Neelin et al. 2013; Pierce et al. 2013, Gao et al. 2014). The slight drying in the current decade arises because the spring drying proceeds faster than the mid-winter wetting. Hence, for California, the models project an emerging shorter, sharper wet season.