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Bob D'A
Trad climber
Taos, NM
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Nov 17, 2014 - 10:42am PT
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Sketch wrote: Your point: The masses are not climate scientists.
And your point on the masses?
My point when right over your head. Have a lovely day.
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Mark Force
Trad climber
Cave Creek, AZ
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Nov 17, 2014 - 11:30am PT
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The only reason there isn't a strong consensus in the public sphere is that such a high percentage of the public mistakenly believes that Fox News is a news station, rather an infotainment channel.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Nov 17, 2014 - 11:38am PT
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Getting back to the reality-based community, and to the physical world ... John Abraham and coauthors have a new article aimed at nonscientists, addressing the question "Has there been a pause in global warming?" in scientific but nontechnical terms. It's worth a quick read, and free to download from Reports of the National Center for Science Education. The excerpt below explains why surface temperatures alone (their Figure 2 is a familiar GISTEMP plot) cannot answer this question.
Figure 2, which shows the history of surface temperatures, is not a proper tool to assess whether global warming is occurring or not. To answer this question, it is necessary to make measurements of the energy stored within Earth’s climate system (the components shown in Figure 1). If the energy in these components is increasing, then Earth must be said to be warming—regardless of any short-term fluctuations in surface temperatures of Figure 2.
The answer to the aforementioned question requires quantification of the Earth energy imbalance. The imbalance can be measured in a variety of ways. For instance, temperature increases in the world’s oceans can be determined by long-term measurements sufficiently deep in ocean waters to capture energy fluxes at the surface (Abraham and others 2013, Nuccitelli and others 2013). Alternatively, Earth-orbiting satellites (calibrated against ocean observations or climate models) can measure both incoming and outgoing heat fluxes to obtain a top-of-atmosphere accounting of energy (Trenberth and others 2009, Trenberth and Fasullo 2010, Trenberth and others 2014a). A third way to infer energy imbalance is through sea-level rise measurements, which exploit the fact that thermal expansion of ocean waters causes a measurable change to the water height. Using any of these methods leads to the same conclusion: Earth is currently out of energy balance by a quantity that ranges from approximately 0.5 to 1.0 W/m2. That is, Earth is gaining energy at a rate of approximately 0.5 to 1.0 Watts per square meter of surface area.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Nov 17, 2014 - 12:06pm PT
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Here ya go, TGT, a global view to go with your weather report.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Nov 17, 2014 - 12:28pm PT
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Getting back to the reality-based community, and to the physical world ...
Chiloe means the community of "people who make a living off of taxpayer's money to 'study' silly things." (The relatively large size of that community can be understood by remembering that about 50% of the electorate don't pay any income taxes, and the people giving money to Chiloe's "community" (politicians) are themselves living off of the taxpayer dole. Very few people willingly give anything to Chiloe's beloved "community."
Hopefully one effect of the last election is that Chiloe's community may shrink, or at least stop expanding.
The blog Chiloe posted seems harmless enough and may well be correct (for those of you following this, it's the "magic ocean" theory, or at least setting the stage for it). It would have been more persuasive if it weren't for the multitude of other (often contradictory) explanations for the hiatus.
TGT--try to remember: warmer -> global warming; cooler -> warmer someplace else, -> global warming.
(You have to admire their chutzpah, if nothing else.)
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Nov 17, 2014 - 12:33pm PT
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Chiloe means the community of "people who make a living off of taxpayer's money to 'study' silly things."
No, I don't know that community, and I was writing for reality-based (rather than ideology-based) people here on ST. That's where it was posted, did you notice?
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raymond phule
climber
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Nov 17, 2014 - 01:31pm PT
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TGT--try to remember: warmer -> global warming; cooler -> warmer someplace else, -> global warming.
(You have to admire their chutzpah, if nothing else.)
I would say that it is a good idea to at least look at the global mean. It is kind of boring to hear hundreds of times that some parts of north America are cold when the global mean is at record levels for the last months.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 17, 2014 - 01:48pm PT
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Sketch
Nov 17, 2014 - 08:48am PT
... how about the lack of agreement on global warming among the masses, even though the media, the politicians, academia and the scientific community have been doing their best to sell it for the last 25 years.
Bob D'A
Thanks for proving my point...the masses are not climate scientists.
Sketch
Your point: The masses are not climate scientists.
Stop The Presses!!!
The Masses Are Not Climate Scientists!
Apparently Sketch cannot remember what he wrote just a few hours before...
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Nov 17, 2014 - 04:26pm PT
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I would say that it is a good idea to at least look at the global mean. It is kind of boring to hear hundreds of times that some parts of north America are cold when the global mean is at record levels for the last months.
Looking at the global mean sounds good and I don't object to it in theory, but remember these guys seem to make up data willy-nilly, including doing things like changing what temperature it was in a particular place in the past! (They've got innumerable "tricks," a word with a very malleable meaning in the parlance of warming circles, such as the tree-rings-are-great-except-when-they-don't-show-what-we-want, then-we-ignore-them.)
Looking at both weather and climate in a place where we can keep our eyes on them at least serves as a bit of a "reality" check (the reality of what the temperature is, not what crackpot theory is in vogue this week).
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 17, 2014 - 04:30pm PT
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Derp, derp, derp
Thanks for playing Sketch.
Next!
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TGT
Social climber
So Cal
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Nov 17, 2014 - 04:41pm PT
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Can your models be back tested to explain why the "fertile crescent"was so named?
(The now deserts of Libya fed the Roman Empire.)
What source of AGW caused the medieval warm period?
Can your models explain why there was a "little ice age"
Why is Lake Superior freezing over a month or more ahead of normal?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Nov 17, 2014 - 04:52pm PT
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Looking at the global mean sounds good and I don't object to it in theory, but remember these guys seem to make up data willy-nilly, including doing things like changing what temperature it was in a particular place in the past!
No blahblah, you made that up. Or rather, you decided to believe and repeat false accusations that other people have made up, because they suit your own politics. No climate scientists "make up data willy-nilly," they're more honest than your sources and also more accountable.
Are you this DK IRL too? It's impressive.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Nov 17, 2014 - 04:55pm PT
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Can your models be back tested to explain why the "fertile crescent"was so named?
(The now deserts of Libya fed the Roman Empire.)
What source of AGW caused the medieval warm period?
Can your models explain why there was a "little ice age"
Why is Lake Superior freezing over a month or more ahead of normal?
TGT, if those were real questions instead of talking points someone fed you, how might you find out the answers? Where could you look to find out what archaeologists know about the Fertile Crescent? What climatology has learned about the MWP and LIA? What other scientists have said about Lake Superior? (Hell, what people have pointed out on this thread within the past few days about recent temps in the upper Midwest! Did you skip that?)
Looking not to right-wing bloggers for your answers, but actually out there in the science? These are things many people have studied.
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Lorenzo
Trad climber
Oregon
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Nov 17, 2014 - 05:38pm PT
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Nov 17, 2014 - 04:41pm PT
Can your models be back tested to explain why the "fertile crescent"was so named?
(The now deserts of Libya fed the Roman Empire.)
What source of AGW caused the medieval warm period?
Can your models explain why there was a "little ice age"
Why is Lake Superior freezing over a month or more ahead of normal?
Well it was probably named that because that's where the first archeology was done. Large parts were irrigation based, with the attendant salt poisoning we are now experiencing in our Imperial and Central valley deserts. They never recovered. We probably won't either. The desiccation made archeology easy.
Solace, I imagine, for future Central Valley archaeologists. You might want to look up the Salton Sea and its prospects for the future.
Recent work seems to show widespread agriculture 15,000 YA in the Ukraine and Moldova that exceeded anything in the Fertile Crescent. There is evidence of cities of 15,000 or more, which would have made them among the largest communities on Earth. That ended perhaps 8,000 YA when the Black Sea flooded due to sea level rising. We know that era as Noah's flood.
As to Lybia being the Roman breadbasket, I think that's a misrepresentation. It seems clear that the big agricultural prize was Egypt, and is probably why Caesar and Antony spent time there. Their irrigation depended on Nile flooding, which cleared out the salts each year. With the Aswan high dam, that seems certain to change and Egypt roll go the route of Ur and Uruk.
No doubt global warming will be blamed.
A close second was Spain, especially around the Ebro, and third probably Tunesia ( Carthage and Numidea) all are still agricultural areas. Gaul was big in Oat production. Lybia had and has agriculture around the mediteranean and was a center for Garum production ( a fermented fish sauce made for the flavor we now call Umami. You can still fish there) and for a fennel_ like spice called Sylphium in the region of Cyrene, which was harvested to extinction. It seems they weren't very good stewards of their resources either.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Nov 17, 2014 - 05:47pm PT
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You all will be pleased to know that I just today signed a lease deal to a used car lot owner . It is a commercial peice that I purchased then tore down the delapidated structure from, thereby landbanking it while awaiting future prosperity.
The $175.00 monthly rent will allow me to continue my independant climate studies and harrasment of you weather wackos.
What Chiloe is not making clear about his presented graphic map is that it is not a representation of raw data, but rather a heavily processed product of homogenization, infills, fudged corrections, and in many cases model output rather than reality.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Nov 17, 2014 - 06:00pm PT
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He must have a very small brain if he can't remember that climate change is allowing arctic air to bulge southwards.
War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.
And in global warming "reality," ever colder means ever hotter! (And it's especially convenient that it's always hotter someplace no one lives, such as the polar regions or the bottom of the ocean.)
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Nov 17, 2014 - 06:25pm PT
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blahblah writes about the "magic ocean" theory...
perhaps he can explain what he means...
rick writes: "What Chiloe is not making clear about his presented graphic map is that it is not a representation of raw data, but rather a heavily processed product of homogenization, infills, fudged corrections, and in many cases model output rather than reality."
but I know he can't explain what he means...
speaking of "means" do either of you know how to calculate a mean?
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Nov 17, 2014 - 09:58pm PT
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blahblah writes about the "magic ocean" theory...
perhaps he can explain what he means...
You must have missed a few days here.
The "magic ocean theory" is the (admittedly pejorative) label given to one of the "explanations" for the hiatus, namely, that the warming has continued to occur, it's just occurred in the oceans since the start of the hiatus rather than in the atmosphere.
That begs questions such as why atmospheric temperatures were rising before the hiatus, and whether the ocean is going to get sick of taking all the heat that used to go into the atmosphere and revert back to the old pattern, or something else.
Taken in isolation, there's nothing all that special about the magic ocean theory (and it may well be correct for all I know)--the real significance is that it was one of many explanations offered by the warmists to explain the hiatus (such as Chiloe's favorite: it's actually getting super warm in the Arctic/Antarctic, but no one realized it because there are no thermometers there). Not all of the explanations could be correct, if they were, observed temperatures should have been sinking like a stone instead of staying about the same, as they've accounted for the "missing" heat in a myriad of ways!
That's what passes for "reality" I guess these days.
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