Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Nov 9, 2014 - 07:56am PT
Just More and More of the insistent Shet talking propaganda BULLSHET that just doesn't cease.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Nov 9, 2014 - 07:57am PT
Another massive copy/paste from the pseudoscience blog that feeds Sketch his ideas. But coyly not referenced, as usual.
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Nov 9, 2014 - 08:17am PT
I'm so happy you're keeping close tabs on me. You care. That's what's important.

denial, delusion....of course we care. Get well soon..
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Nov 9, 2014 - 08:58am PT
Global temperature indexes derived from surface station data (e.g., NOAA, NASA, HadCRUT4, BEST and (mostly) Cowtan & Way) tend to broadly agree with the lower-troposphere indexes from satellite data (e.g., UAH, RSS) but with secondary divergence: the surface indexes tend to show a faster rate of warming, while the satellite indexes show higher variation and more sensitivity to ENSO. Are the different rates a sign of bias in one approach or the other?

A new paper by Weng and coauthors argues the satellite measures have a cool bias, up to 30% of their trend, because they do not well enough adjust for effects from liquid water contained in clouds (which makes their lower-troposphere estimates cooler relative to the surface):
Uncertainty of AMSU-A derived temperature trends in relationship with clouds and precipitation over ocean

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) observations from a series of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellites have been extensively utilized for estimating the atmospheric temperature trend. For a given atmospheric temperature condition, the emission and scattering of clouds and precipitation modulate MSU and AMSU-A brightness temperatures. In this study, the effects of the radiation from clouds and precipitation on AMSU-A derived atmospheric temperature trend are assessed using the information from AMSU-A window channels. It is shown that the global mean temperature in the low and middle troposphere has a larger warming rate (about 20–30 % higher) when the cloud-affected radiances are removed from AMSU-A data. It is also shown that the inclusion of cloud-affected radiances in the trend analysis can significantly offset the stratospheric cooling represented by AMSU-A channel 9 over the middle and high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere.

So, should we accept this conclusion? It's only one study and is properly viewed with skepticism pending replication and new studies by other teams. John Abraham has a good article in the Guardian about Weng et al., in which he appropriately cautions
Of course, whenever a study that is this significant is published, there is deserved skepticism. We have to be guarded in our acceptance until further work is done and until other teams have had a chance to review the findings. I asked others who work in this area to find their impressions.

The first person he asked, Roy Spencer, disagrees with Weng et al. That won't be the last word either; this could provide a fine example of scientific skepticism (not the fake kind) at work.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Nov 9, 2014 - 09:05am PT
In telling this story, Dr. Abraham provides a neat summary of surface vs. satellite measures. Surface temperatures, e.g. thermometers are pretty obvious, but indirect and model-dependent satellite measures are less so. It's worth repeating this information which can be a source of some confusion. What do those satellites actually measure, and how do we get from there to lower-troposphere temperature?

An alternative technique is to use satellites to extract temperatures from radiative emission at microwave frequencies from oxygen in the atmosphere. Satellites can cover the entire globe and thereby avoid the problem with discrete sensors. However, satellites also change over time, their orbit can change, or their detection devices can also change.

Orbital degradation combined with an out of date model is the reason Roy Spencer has suggested, as I posted here earlier, that the RSS lower troposphere index has a particularly cool bias. But back to Abraham....

For a few decades, satellites have measured radiant emission from oxygen in the atmosphere and have related these measurements to temperatures. As satellites orbit the Earth, the microwave instrument on-board scans the atmosphere below them every 8 seconds or so and scientists apply what are called weighting functions to extract information from different altitudes. Each of the microwave “channels” uses a different weighting function so as to obtain information at different heights. The four channels most associated with atmospheric temperatures are Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit channels 3, 5, 7, and 9 in the current fleet of satellites.

The radiant emission received by the satellite can be influenced by other components in the atmosphere, in particular cloud liquid water. Many years ago, the impact of cloud liquid water was considered and various attempts were made to eliminate its influence through a filtering process. It is well known that cloud liquid water can influence the measurements, the real question is by how much?

That's what Weng and colleagues set out to answer.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Nov 9, 2014 - 10:01am PT
I'm not an ideologue, and CW14 is not an outlier. Perhaps that word "mostly" baffled you, what do you guess it referred to?
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Nov 9, 2014 - 10:13am PT
Like arguing with a parrot.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Nov 10, 2014 - 09:54am PT
The Chief, always ready to bring the forum to new lows.


Never brings anything positive to a discussion, and brings every thread down to his grade-school level.
Ever think how much better this place would be without his incessant abuse?


I'm all for the First Amendment and everything, but if this were a real campfire with real folks sitting around it, we'd have taken The Chief out long ago.
dave729

Trad climber
Western America
Nov 10, 2014 - 10:03am PT
But k-man, your ilk are the obvious deniers. The Chief is on the winning
side of the climate debate.

Because:
"There is no significant man-made global warming at this time, there has been none in the past and there is no reason to fear any in the future. Efforts to prove the theory that carbon dioxide is a significant “greenhouse” gas and pollutant causing significant warming or weather effects have failed. There has been no warming over 18 years."

TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Nov 10, 2014 - 06:16pm PT
Unsurprisingly, the “world’s largest solar plant” is struggling, so they want a bailout from US taxpayers to help repay the loan provided on the taxpayers back

(Fox News) After already receiving a controversial $1.6 billion construction loan from U.S. taxpayers, the wealthy investors of a California solar power plant now want a $539 million federal grant to pay off their federal loan.

“This is an attempt by very large cash generating companies that have billions on their balance sheet to get a federal bailout, i.e. a bailout from us – the taxpayer for their pet project,” said Reason Foundation VP of Research Julian Morris. “It’s actually rather obscene.”

The Ivanpah solar electric generating plant is owned by Google and renewable energy giant NRG, which are responsible for paying off their federal loan. If approved by the U.S. Treasury, the two corporations will not use their own money, but taxpayer cash to pay off 30 percent of the cost of their plant, but taxpayers will receive none of the millions in revenues the plant will generate over the next 30 years.

The loan itself was at a lower than market rate, and, apparently, Google and NRG have no cash themselves. Despite that almost $11 billion in net revenue Google generated in 2013.


But since [Ivanpah was unveiled in February] the plant has not lived up to its clean energy promise. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the plant produced only about a quarter of the power it’s supposed to, a disappointing 254,263 megawatt-hours of electricity from January through August, not the million megawatt-hours it promised.

It’s failing to generate the promised power? Only 1/4 of what was promised? The hell you say! Here’s a good reminder of the way the different methods shake out

That’s from the Mad, Mad, Mad World Of Climatism, where we see the capacity being 16%, which is about normal. 50MW promised, 8 delivered, using 2 square miles for a power density of 4. Only wind is worse for density, though capacity tends to be better. And that’s what tends to happen with solar: big promises, low returns, when it comes to these giant plants. One day it will be ready for prime time. That day is not here. Yet.

A NRG spokesman blamed the weather, saying the sun didn’t shine as often as years of studies predicted.[]/b] However by the four-year mark, NRG has “every confidence that the plant will function as anticipated for the life of the facility,”according to the company.

Um, Ok. You took $1.6 billion in taxpayer money and had a faulty study that resulted in losing three-fourths of your projected power generation? If “the weather” isn’t cooperating now, why would it cooperate in the future, when your studies were wrong? Could it be that the plant is just not capable of producing the power promised? Hey, maybe the spokesman thinks birds are weather

The problem is that birds see the mirrors as water. As they approach, the 800º F solar beams roast any bird that happens to fly by. A recent study released by the California Energy Commission conducted by the Center for Biological Diversity called Ivanpah a “mega-trap” that will kill up to 28,000 birds a year.

28K birds could block a lot of light, eh? Of course, Ivanpah disputes the numbers, much like they live in a fantasy land where the plant will suddenly start working and generating the promised power. It’s like watching one of those restaurant rescue shows where the owners and/or cooks say “hey, they love our food!” and the host says “who’s they? The restaurant is empty.”

I’ll say it one more time: if we’re going to use federal money for grants and loans, I’d like to see it go more towards R&D in order to make the alternatives, primarily wind and solar (we know hydro and geothermal actually work), worthwhile. And, focus more on small scale projects, like for homes and small buildings.

http://www.thepiratescove.us/2014/11/09/failing-ivanpah-solar-plant-wants-federal-grant-to-repay-federal-loan/
Norton

Social climber
quitcherbellyachin
Nov 10, 2014 - 07:04pm PT
guys,

I am curious as to why you all keep arguing with The Chief?

he clearly is not gong to change his mind under any circumstances and he is also going to continue to post in such a way as to intentionally insult and further antagonize you

personally, I think the chief posts not only on this thread buy many others purely for his own entertainment and he knows that he can get what he wants, you to reply, but being contentious

why are you giving him what he wants then?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 10, 2014 - 07:30pm PT
guys,

I am curious as to why you all keep arguing with The Chief?

he clearly is not gong to change his mind under any circumstances and he is also going to continue to post in such a way as to intentionally insult and further antagonize you

personally, I think the chief posts not only on this thread buy many others purely for his own entertainment and he knows that he can get what he wants, you to reply, but being contentious

why are you giving him what he wants then?


The Chief is unabashed in transmitting what he hears from the various blogs and news outlets that hold positions on Climate Change that he agrees with... we all know that that agreement has nothing at all to do with The Chief's own scientific thoughts, he possesses none of those.

However, it is important to understand what his sources are putting out to the public, and to understand why the science "supporting" those reports is incorrect.

To that end, The Chief serves as a STForum mouthpiece that can be responded to, it isn't about The Chief at all, he is the sock puppet, the response is to those that are attached to the hand in the sock puppet. If The Chief were to cease, some other avatar would step up to the role. Largely, these avatars are anonymous and have no courage to identify themselves and their views. Given this lack of courage, and the lack of conviction to their views, it is hardly a matter of convincing them. Why would one even try? but in responding to the stuff they post up here, that is a more useful matter not because of them, but because of others who might be confused by that stuff.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 10, 2014 - 07:36pm PT
Fossil Fuel Subsides in the USA
$50-100 BILLION per year, not including Carbon/CO2 emissions.
Direct subsidies, tax subsidies, external cost subsidies, etc.
Why aren't the deniers complaining?
How many animals per year are killed or no longer inhabit the areas affected by coal mines & mountain top removal, tar sands mining, leaking fuel and pipelines?
What is the cumulative damage to health and water supplies of the above + diesel soot?

http://priceofoil.org/campaigns/separate-oil-and-state/ending-us-fossil-fuel-subsidies/

http://www.pennfuture.org/UserFiles/File/FactSheets/Report_FossilFuelSubsidy_201112.pdf

http://www.worldwatch.org/fossil-fuel-and-renewable-energy-subsidies-rise

http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2013/02/eliminate-fossil-fuel-subsidies
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_subsidies

Global subsidies are even worse, maybe $500 billion per year, esp in nations with fossil fuel resources.

http://www.dw.de/fossil-fuel-subsidies-outstrip-renewables-funding-by-billions/a-17465775
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/06/pictures/120618-large-fossil-fuel-subsidies/
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/03/29/1791811/bombshell-imf-study-united-sates-is-worlds-number-one-fossil-fuel-subsidizer/
Norton

Social climber
quitcherbellyachin
Nov 10, 2014 - 07:56pm PT
Why would one even try? but in responding to the stuff they post up here, that is a more useful matter not because of them, but because of others who might be confused by that stuff.

seriously, Ed?

you post on this thread in replies to Rick Sumner, Sketch, and the chief for the purpose of
educating someone else, say a lurker who reads this thread, because all the known thread posters
have long ago been educated after tens of thousands of posts?

ok, I get it, just seems like a waste of time and effort, as so much of it is trading insults
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Nov 10, 2014 - 08:01pm PT
Splater, there is a huge difference in the tax credit subsidies granted to hydrocarbon production and processing as compared to outright grants, guaranteed low interest loans, and guaranteed preferential feed-Ins and pricing lavished on "big green".

The dedicated voters of america, by and large among the diminished middle class, have had enough of their pockets being picked and their values ridiculed and trashed. Climate change/big green is one of several primary (though under acknowledged) issues that prompted the nov. 4 democrat bloodbath.

CAGW science lost credibility long ago with the never ending false cries of the wolves. Many of these wolves have managed to enrich themselves while fleecing the flock. Those days are ending for all but the nations with the most extreme delusional political control. The 2015 IPCC climate summit will be a joke, and mercifully the last we are to see. Global geopolitical reality is leaving this criminal farce behind.

TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Nov 10, 2014 - 08:11pm PT
Yeah, like he really needs $539 million of our money for his bird fryer.


Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 10, 2014 - 09:03pm PT
well fortunately we don't vote in what science is correct, and what is not...

while the current election results may have some rather subtle affect on climate science, it will be generally irrelevant to the pursuit of the science, which has been happening for over 60 years.

The election will have an affect on the policy of climate change, but I suspect that won't last too long.

As for crying wolf... well from rick's perspective it didn't happen 40 years ago so they got it wrong and it's not going to happen... and besides, just leave it to engineers to fix, they can fix anything...
...good luck with that, rick, luck is exactly what you'll need.
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Nov 10, 2014 - 09:32pm PT
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Nov 10, 2014 - 09:47pm PT
Didjya all see that sales of Prius have dropped like 20% since gas prices
dropped and that sales of SUV's have risen even more than Prius dropped?
I guess that proves the The Chief is right- nobody gives a sh!t.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Nov 10, 2014 - 10:25pm PT
Well Ed, a few tomorrows into the future and the technology will be indistinguishable from magic to a physicist of the early 21st century. That is, if the enviro whack jobs dont get their way and put us back into the stone age.

By the way,you have Asimov's laws of robotics confused with Clarke's Rendevous With Rama.
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