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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Yep, I'm sure SFgate was just making it all up.
http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/El-Ni-o-chances-continue-to-weaken-5875937.php
Federal forecasters on Thursday scaled back the likelihood of an El Niņo developing this winter, dampening hopes of a wet winter washing away the California drought.
And thanks for debunking yourself.
The chances went from 80% this spring to 58% now.
The odds of an El Niņo forming this winter are now pegged at 58 percent, according to the Climate Prediction Center, down from 80 percent in the spring.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Love how The Chief expects that the model predictions should not change as we get closer to winter.
Looks like the NOAA models for El-Nino this winter dropped from 60-65% from the last update about a month ago, to 58% now.
Unfortunately for a better chance at a wetter California winter, they should be going up by now as we near winter.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 6, 2014 - 02:00pm PT
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Good work The Chief, you really found a hole in the climate science this time.
Time for a doggie treat for you!
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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I thought the denier would have a problem with the word "EVER".
Never mind the facts.
Let's harp on the uncertainties of "EVER".
Show us one reconstruction where there has been a spike[a steep one in as short of time,that we are sure of,due to humans] in global temperatures such as the one we are going through now,due to carbon emissions created by the burning of FF'S.
There must be one,aye?
58% chance being better than a 99% chance.Well ,LTFOL.
As far as Ed deleting his posts,I have every reason to believe that was not because he could not read.
The Denier,not so much.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Oh dang, did Ed delete his posts again?
no, my recent posts are up...
I did it because it was apparent that the good stuff from the past was lost to motorcycle-bombing threads and the like, buried deep... that many of the people for whom the posts were intended didn't read them, or didn't understand them (if they read them), and were essentially irrelevant... and that the less-than-civil posts were inappropriate.
So I had those earlier posts taken down.
Like it really matters to the discussion. The work I did for many of those posts still exists and can be (and in some cases has) been reposted.
I understand that avatars like The Chief like the smell of their sh#t, so it doesn't bother them to have feces laying around all over the place... it is, after all, a natural thing to just sh#t where he needs to do it... happening for millions of years...
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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"Like it really matters to the discussion"
Only when a child is wrong.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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scifi has been erased...
wonder why?
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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well. that proves it. sketch and the Enquirer were right all along.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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forgot the dash, thanks for the correction...
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Perhaps this image can help TGT understand why a polar vortex hitting the US has little impact on the global average temp, without even considering that the US is only 2% of the globe.
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
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That's the same polar vortex whistling between sketches ears...
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Sketch,think of this,the polar vortex,how long have those lasted?
Then ,how long has the California drought lasted?
Then think which would have an affect on an average of anomalies?
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Kind of insulting to pigs, Mal. What did pigs ever do to you?
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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"apparently".......LOL.
Stating the obvious facts and being surly with Deniers,is actually fun.
I have been on 2 wheels practically my whole life.
edit;First day of Skiing,cheer up deniers...
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