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storer
Trad climber
Golden, Colorado
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Feb 11, 2011 - 07:57pm PT
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An easy way for non-warmists to get their minds around this issue is to approach it like a crack climb. The way forward is clear; just get the last piece a little higher up and then punch it through.
Look carefully at the plots of carbon (mainly CO2) dumped into the atmosphere by humans and the plot of carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere, both plots vs. time, which I submitted above. When you are comfortable with correlation between the data sets only then will we relate the CO2 concentration to global warming.
Are you comfortable?
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TGT
Social climber
So Cal
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Feb 11, 2011 - 08:42pm PT
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For my part, I am preparing for global warming: I am buying real estate in Cleveland:
You're screwed when it turns out to be an ice age.
(Or just the next time the river catches on fire.)
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storer
Trad climber
Golden, Colorado
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Feb 11, 2011 - 08:43pm PT
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A.C. my feet hurt too!... but maybe from "stacking toes" in EB's or walking Molitors dry after soaking them in a hot bathtub to make them soft for touring...but hang in there!
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Roger Breedlove
climber
Cleveland Heights, Ohio
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Feb 11, 2011 - 09:11pm PT
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Ok, TGT, that's it. Your application for emigration has been rejected with prejudice.
On the other hand, if there is an ice age, can I come visit?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 11, 2011 - 09:58pm PT
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Sitting back Friday night while the dog woofs in her sleep by the woodstove, finally a chance to do a little reading ... splitting time between Anansi Boys and a recent issue of Science.
Science Jan 14 has several pieces on past climate. Since this Supertopo thread veers onto that topic too, here's one quote from a piece by atmospheric scientist Jeffrey Kiehl, pulling together some recent research findings, that seemed worth passing along.
Earth's CO2 concentration is rapidly rising to a level not seen in ∼30 to 100 million years, and Earth's climate was extremely warm at these levels of CO2. If the world reaches such concentrations of atmospheric CO2, positive feedback processes can amplify global warming beyond current modeling estimates. The human species and global ecosystems will be placed in a climate state never before experienced in their evolutionary history and at an unprecedented rate. Note that these conclusions arise from observations from Earth's past and not specifically from climate models.
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213
climber
Where the Froude number often >> 1
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Feb 11, 2011 - 10:39pm PT
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It is certain that we are in uncharted territory with atmospheric CO2 levels. The response of the Earth system to such concentrations is (obviously) poorly understood. The linkages between CO2 and estimated temperature that Dr. Kiehl describes are quite scary, however. As is his understanding of geography...Thinking simply, remember what the Earth looked like between 30 and 100 million years ago?
Not too different than today, but enough so that I would not call it the same place. For example, oceans are connected through the Equator. Hmm. Different ocean currents anyone? Would not the thermal circulations (atmospheric and oceanic, individually as well as coupled) behave quite a bit different, thus making such a linkage to temperature shaky at best? Dr. Kiehl should realize this, he took many courses in fluid dynamics. The heat engine continues, but I doubt in the same manner with which it operates today...anyone got a model to prove me wrong (Ho: The coupled global thermal circulation is the same during the Cretaceous as it is today)???...though maybe the superheated tropical Atlantic could provide some vicious diabatic forcing to make up for the small body of water for some awesome paleohurricanes LOL.
He only mentions the biogeography as being similar...No mention of clouds or aerosols, which are obviously VERY important in the radiative budget (also the source of the greatest uncertainty in all of climate (IPCC 2007)). Sure, CO2 forcing is one of many ingredients in a very tricky recipe, but I think he oversimplifies too much here to make his point. And yes, we very well may expect (and will receive) future conditions completely not forecast by GCMs. This goes without saying, but he phrases it in a way that he can't be wrong. Model world will always be different than reality with complex nonlinear systems. Sorry, but I expect better from Science's peer review team. But I certainly agree, we are in a whole world unlike any we've seen before!!! So go climbing and laugh!
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TGT
Social climber
So Cal
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Feb 11, 2011 - 11:05pm PT
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 11, 2011 - 11:58pm PT
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213, cool map but I think you overcranked the Wayback machine. That looks mid Cretaceous, whereas Kiehl was writing about late Eocene. Making his statement that paleogeography was not "radically different" (at 35ma) more understandable, though you may still disagree.
Perhaps you could elaborate (or have written somewhere?) on your point about circulation. Do you think there a mechanism by which circulation inferred from Eocene geography and proxies could have made the planet 16C warmer than present? Or made PETM temperature reconstructions that much too high?
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bookworm
Social climber
Falls Church, VA
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Feb 13, 2011 - 08:22am PT
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"In the climate models, the extremes get more extreme as we move into a doubled CO2 world in 100 years," atmospheric scientist Gilbert Compo, one of the researchers on the project, tells me from his office at the University of Colorado, Boulder. "So we were surprised that none of the three major indices of climate variability that we used show a trend of increased circulation going back to 1871."
here's the whole article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704422204576130300992126630.html
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Douglas Rhiner
Mountain climber
Truckee , CA
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Feb 13, 2011 - 10:43am PT
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Now this makes sense.....
We may not be able to do anything about the weather, extreme or otherwise. But we can make sure we have the resources to deal with it when it comes.
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TGT
Social climber
So Cal
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Feb 13, 2011 - 12:43pm PT
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I just cleaned a couple of pounds of carbon out of the barbecue.
Where do I turn it in for credit.
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bluering
Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
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Feb 17, 2011 - 11:06pm PT
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Are we still saying that CO2 is causing all this drastic weather??? Are we still having it both ways?
Has anybody given creedance to solar activity yet as a more major player?
EDIT: FWIW, there has been mucho snow in San Francisco before the advent of the Earth Crushing Automobile arrived.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/parenting/detail?entry_id=83256
idiots....
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Feb 18, 2011 - 12:43am PT
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Dr. F, quick question--what is the wettest year on record?
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 1, 2011 - 05:20pm PT
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Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft (which in its heyday was referred to as the Evil Empire) is the protagonist in an interesting article in Rolling Stone.
"America's most successful entrepreneur" states "The right goal is not to cut our carbon emissions in half. The right goal is zero".
But certainly CC, Bluey, Booky, and the list of other non-comprehending zealots, what could Gates know that you don't.
If you care to educate yourselves (beyond the most excellent posts by the scientists present in this thread), then pick up and read the article in RS #1117, it is possible (but not likely) that your mind could be opened.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft (which in its heyday was referred to as the Evil Empire) is the protagonist in an interesting article in Rolling Stone.
"America's most successful entrepreneur" states "The right goal is not to cut our carbon emissions in half. The right goal is zero".
How about calling him America's most successful court-certified illegal monopolist, a more accurate and enlightening description.
How much carbon does your hero use to maintain his ginormous mansion (66,000 sq ft) for his small family? More than a bit of hypocrisy, no? At least it's an energy efficient palace.
If you want to learn something interesting about global warming, you can read the following article in the Christmas edition of the The Economist, which explains how GW and human intervention has turned formerly barren Ascension Island into an earthly paradise due to increased temps and precipitation (at least that's a leading theory).
http://www.economist.com/node/17722704?story_id=17722704&CFID=157609201&CFTOKEN=42876164
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 1, 2011 - 06:38pm PT
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blahblah, attacking Gates without reading the article is perfect for your brand of folks.
And what brand is that??
Also, nice article on a new paradise. The trouble is, how many folks will be able to move to these more moderate climates when the warming makes their current cities uninhabitable?
Why should I be impressed at the lack of intelligence some folks gladly display.
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corniss chopper
climber
breaking the speed of gravity
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-Thank God that Liberals have chosen to be so sensitive to climate change and will die off quickly and allow the rest of us to go on with our lives as normal.
That's what I call altruism ! Hip hip Horah!
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