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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Oct 22, 2014 - 01:36pm PT
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More from KarSteN at ATTP, on the implications from two kinds of aerosols that tend to have opposite effects (sulfates--> cooling, black carbon--> warming) and yet also tend to rise or fall together.
Overestimation over remote areas is an issue for all aerosol species to some extent. You often find the combination of either high (neg) sulphate (scattering aerosols) and high (pos) BC (absorbing aerosols) forcing or low (neg) sulphate and (pos) BC forcing. The end result is similar. A bit of a scaling issue if you like. If you happen to only publish the high BC forcing, you can’t infer the total forcing. The same applies if you publish a very high sulphate forcing (what many people did before the BC hype).
Bottomline: IPCC AR5 current central (aerosol) forcing estimate should be fairly robust. I tend to think that the uncertainty range could be reduced quite substantially though (except for the aerosol forcing – i.e. it’s temporal variability – over the course of the 20th century).
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Oct 22, 2014 - 01:45pm PT
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Nah.. no way. Cus if it was indeed "Verifid" as such, it would seriously put one bigazz hole in your AGW theory. Wouldn't it now.
the only "bigazz hole" is the one where your brain should be... you're not going to get much from me until you describe what "evidence" is from your point of view, until then the discussion is futile as you can just say "nope, that's not it!"
try describing "evidence"
turns out that those papers I cited up above have the answer in their abstracts... you apparently missed that. I also posted papers that you could get at online, but you apparently didn't look at them, even if you did, no amount of lip-moving will help you to understand them.
but just for shits and giggles, let's hear your definition of "evidence" and then for "scientific evidence"
still nothing from you on this point, though you seem to be demanding the "evidence" no one knows what you're asking for (not even you)
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Oct 22, 2014 - 02:04pm PT
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Oct 22, 2014 - 06:02pm PT
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Hey Ray, look at Chiloes sea ice volume graph below for the truth that Arctic sea ice is most certainly on a recent rebound-largest volume in seven years. As far as NH snow duration, just ask the Europeans or Irish that were skiing in july in recent years, the midwestern and eastern americans , east and central canadians that endured a prolonged winter last year with ice on the great lakes till july, or me who witnessed the longest Alaskan winter in recent decades ( in fact my wife and I incredibly pulled up to the bank of the Tanana in 2013 just minutes before the latest ice out in the history of the Nenana ice classic). Your whole rebuttal was unfounded crapola.By the way Phule, would you be so kind as to provide Information on what you do for a living to the good folks here.
Evidence Ed? I'll answer that. Its in the rocks, the fossils, the sediments, in the ice, under the ice, In the variation of output in the solar radiation spectrum, in variation of solar magnetic flux, in the ocean currents and overturn oscillations, in our present orbit , axial tilt and calendrical seasonal orientation of axial wobble,in recorded history, in the raw temp data before the numerous smoothings, homogenizations, infills, in the publications of Club of Rome and numerous enviromental organizations, in the emails between leading climate mouthpeices, and hopefully someday soon before a judge and jury on the journey of leading criminal catastrophists to Incarceration.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Oct 22, 2014 - 06:09pm PT
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Not Very Likely.
Nice sentence though.
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Norton
Social climber
quitcherbellyachin
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Oct 22, 2014 - 06:39pm PT
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raymond phule
climber
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Oct 23, 2014 - 12:00am PT
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Hey Ray, look at Chiloes sea ice volume graph below for the truth that Arctic sea ice is most certainly on a recent rebound-largest volume in seven years.
It looks like a tie with 2009 (2009 is actual higher than 2014) and lower than 2008 and that is not seven years but I guess that details like that doesn't matter. It is just one more claim like [not even in the top 5 hottest years to date according to UAH] when it is actually in the top 3.
It is also a much less rebound than you claimed were going to happen this summer.
As far as NH snow duration, just ask the Europeans or Irish that were skiing in july in recent years,
I am a European skier so I ask my self. Did I ski in july the last years? No. Where it a lot of snow last winter? No, it was a unusual bad season. Were the season very long? No, it was short.
So rick it seems like you just made up stuff as usual.
the midwestern and eastern americans , east and central canadians that endured a prolonged winter last year with ice on the great lakes till july, or me who witnessed the longest Alaskan winter in recent decades ( in fact my wife and I incredibly pulled up to the bank of the Tanana in 2013 just minutes before the latest ice out in the history of the Nenana ice classic).
Yes, we know that same part of north America has been cool the last years. It is not difficult to find that also from untrusted sources like noaa and nasa. Some other part have been warm though.
Your whole rebuttal was unfounded crapola.
Ok, so I guess that we cant trust UAH anymore or the snow cover data that exist.
By the way Phule, would you be so kind as to provide Information on what you do for a living to the good folks here.
Why should I do that? What should be best in your view, if I were a buss driver or a scientist?
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Oct 23, 2014 - 07:31am PT
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What would be most damning In my mind Ray? Probably a supplier, contractor, or engineer involved/dependent on the flow of funding to solar or wind.
So I missed the super ski season by a year or whatever, at least my ice guesstimate was closer than yours.
Frosty- im glad I switched off last night. Its sad to witness your kind of babbling meltdown.
Anything new under the sun today guys?
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raymond phule
climber
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Oct 23, 2014 - 07:35am PT
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So I missed the super ski season by a year or whatever, at least my ice guesstimate was closer than yours.
Rick, do you ever think before you write? My prediction were closer than your claim.
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Cragar
climber
MSLA - MT
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Oct 23, 2014 - 09:17am PT
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I need a new chainsaw.
^^Stihl are the only, replace it or scrench it a little more!
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Elcapinyoazz
Social climber
Joshua Tree
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Oct 23, 2014 - 12:51pm PT
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Wal-Mart, king of solar adoption:
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Oct 23, 2014 - 01:45pm PT
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I will be thinking about the local climate of Squeamish as I pass overhead at 35, 000 feet northbound this pm Frosty. I will also ponder the thought process that allows the robot populace, such as yourself, to support the CC industry in spite of the preponderance of evidence of their criminality.
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son of stan
Boulder climber
San Jose CA
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Oct 23, 2014 - 01:48pm PT
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Always a happy day when the Left Wing Radical Pigs have their
climate warming hoax exposed.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Oct 23, 2014 - 04:36pm PT
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Denial.
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Splater
climber
Grey Matter
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Oct 23, 2014 - 05:44pm PT
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John coleman is a weatherman/meteorolist,
and is a quack when it comes to science or climate.
Did you forget that the "big" skeptics like Curry & Lewis have accepted that warming is human caused? They just like to lowball their future predictions. Most skeptics just fall back to Dubya's claim that it's all China's fault, without making any move on how to make a global CO2 policy work.
Possible problems with a used Stihl - dull blade, dirty carb, old gas.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Oct 23, 2014 - 06:48pm PT
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what's to comment on?
did you actually understand what was written or are you quoting it because it seems to be a contrary view to the "mainstream of climate science"? The methodology described appears to be congruent with the actual methodology employed, the author, by his own admission, doesn't usually conduct these analyses without "subject matter experts" involved, yet he seems to have forgotten to invite any in his "analysis," thus missing the mark.
For what it's worth, he is building a system model and filling in the boxes... which is exactly what the climate models do... he may not understand that.
The climate models have evolved in increasing complexity to address exactly the issues that he raises, but those models are based on observation, and the disagreements of the model predictions and the observations help to both validate the models and verify them... the degree of disagreement, the accuracy of the models, continues to improve, and especially as more detail is incorporated.
http://www2.ucar.edu/climate/faq/aren-t-computer-models-used-predict-climate-really-simplistic
The observational ability also improves in response to the model sensitivities, as the models tell us what science is important at each level of detail. The ability to measure the oceans is motivated by the determination that the oceans are an important part of climate change once the model predictions achieve the accuracy to make predictions that are affected by the ocean systems.
The work in paleoclimatology reveals the "baseline" climate which can be used to test the models, and to measure the degree to which human activity is involved with the current state of the climate.
But the models aren't the only tool used, the very first calculations done by Arrhenius and others demonstrates the basic mechanism in a very simple manner. And not only that, but Arrhenius pointed out the affect of increasing the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere would increase the surface temperature.
The model elaboration are necessary obtaining the degree of accuracy required to make the near term (100 year and short) forecasts, and the range of those forecasts.
I'm not sure why such "articles" as the one Sketch referred to are given "equal time" the author of the article has spend a very small amount of time on a subject that has had a very active research community working on it for decades.
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Curt
climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
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Oct 23, 2014 - 07:21pm PT
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Efforts to prove the theory that carbon dioxide is a significant “greenhouse” gas and pollutant causing significant warming or weather effects have failed.
Really? it's not that complicated.
Curt
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