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sci-fi
climber
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Oct 13, 2014 - 01:47pm PT
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Yes.
I have spent more than 10 years at various universities studying geoscience and have published a dozen peer-reviewed papers in this field.
I know what is up and down in this debate.
Did you even check where the papers I cite were published?
PNAS, Science, Nature etc.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Oct 13, 2014 - 02:02pm PT
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I'm certainly not an expert, but I do critical thinking for a living
If that's true and you're not just another political sock puppet on ST, as you've been acting so far -- can you apply some real thinking skills here?
The whole discussion concerns whether or not we will face a catastrophic scenario in the very near future and if trying to cut CO2 has any significant effect.
No, that is not "the whole discussion" or even a large part of it in the science literature. Nor on this Supertopo thread. So who told you that it is?
I would argue from the most recent estimates on the climate sensitivity that we are not facing a crisis and even if we were then adapting to those changes would be the only way forward. Look at where China and India are going in terms of energy production.
CO2 is not increasing, or if it is it's not anthropogenic, or if it is the sensitivity is low, or if it's high there's nothing we can do because India and China ... and so forth. Many arguments and fall-back declarations read like rhetorical paint jobs that can change easily (Look! There's a Pause!) or be stacked into the same sentence as you just did, but all justifying the same steel imperative: U.S. should not reduce fossil fuel use.
Regarding sensitivity, paleoclimate studies lean toward higher numbers -- otherwise it's hard to get big climate swings based on small solar and orbital variations. Studies based on the modern instrumental records work with much shorter time scales, so the meaning of "equilibrium" isn't clear. The recent Lewis & Curry piece, beloved by denialist bloggers, got especially low numbers in part because they used HadCRUT's incomplete geography to represent the globe, although two less biased records (BEST and CW14) were available to cover the same years.
In the geological perspective we are in a very cold period and we currently have an extremely low concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. So much so that we should be worrying about that instead of both increasing.
Nope, you totally jumped the shark there. Repeating stuff straight from a denialist blog? Think for yourself -- How was civilization doing back when we didn't live in such a very cold period, and we didn't have such extremely low CO2? What about this is "so much so" that you think we should be losing sleep over it?
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sci-fi
climber
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Oct 13, 2014 - 02:03pm PT
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I'll be spending the rest of the week on the side of El Cap, so don't hold your breath, but I can't wait to be educated about how close we are to the apocalypse when I get back...
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Oct 13, 2014 - 02:06pm PT
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I have spent more than 10 years at various universities studying geoscience and have published a dozen peer-reviewed papers in this field.
Examples?
I know what is up and down in this debate.
Your posts so far suggest otherwise but I'm happy to be convinced. As ATTP blogged, "We need a better class of skeptics," but I'm not sure that you're it.
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Splater
climber
Grey Matter
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Oct 13, 2014 - 02:14pm PT
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"In the geological perspective we are in a very cold period and we currently have an extremely low concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. So much so that we should be worrying about that instead of both increasing."
100% troll
"Climate changes and always has. We managed just fine during the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warming with primitive technology, so surely we can manage whatever comes next."
100% troll
"Lets deal with real world problems rather than wasting any more sleep over computer-generated simulations of the future!"
100% troll
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Norton
Social climber
quitcherbellyachin
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Oct 13, 2014 - 03:07pm PT
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Further PROOF That So Called Climate Change Is a HOAX
AREQUIPA, Peru (AP) — Rising sea levels and other effects of climate change will pose major challenges for America's military, including more and worse natural disasters and the threat that food and water shortages could fuel disputes and instability around the world, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said Monday.
Addressing a conference of military leaders as the Pentagon released a new report on the issue, Hagel said, "Our militaries' readiness could be tested, and our capabilities could be stressed."
U.S. military officials have long warned that changes in climate patterns, resulting in increased severe weather events and coastal flooding, will have a broad and costly impact on the Defense Department's ability to protect the nation and respond to natural and humanitarian disasters in the United States and around the globe.
The new report — described as a Pentagon roadmap — identifies four things that it says will affect the U.S. military: rising global temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, more extreme weather and rising sea levels. It calls on the department and the military services to identify more specific concerns, including possible effects on the more than 7,000 bases and facilities, and to start putting plans in place to deal with them.
"Climate change is a 'threat multiplier' because it has the potential to exacerbate many of the challenges we already confront today — from infectious disease to armed insurgencies — and to produce new challenges in the future," Hagel said. He spoke during the opening session of the conference, which was attended by defense ministers and military chiefs of more than 30 countries from the Americas, Spain and Portugal.
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Norton
Social climber
quitcherbellyachin
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Oct 13, 2014 - 03:09pm PT
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I have spent more than 10 years at various universities studying geoscience and have published a dozen peer-reviewed papers in this field.
sources, links to your 12 peer reviewed papers in this field?
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Oct 13, 2014 - 03:24pm PT
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In the geological perspective we are in a very cold period and we currently have an extremely low concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. So much so that we should be worrying about that instead of both increasing.
"Both" increasing? Stanford, eh.
Hope you have fun on El Cap for a week...
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sci-fi
climber
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Oct 13, 2014 - 03:26pm PT
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Are you kidding me?
After seeing how you guys treat people with opinions that deviate from “the agenda” there is no way I’m going to let you know my name or where I live.
You will simply have to take my word for what I tell you or judge me by my arguments and the data that I present.
I’m still waiting for any of you to show me unequivocal proof that CO2 is the dominant control of global climate.
Please give me some references that explains why there has been no temperature increase for close to two decades now, despite ca. 25% of all anthropogenic CO2 has been emitted during this period.
Don’t tell me that this does not shake you belief in the climate religion?
And don’t give me “the oceans ate the heat” that has now been ruled out!
NASA Study Finds Earth's Ocean Abyss Has Not Warmed:
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4321
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Oct 13, 2014 - 03:26pm PT
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Bruce ky, as a fearless defender of truth, justice and the Canuckistan way, or alternately in your drunken belligerance, im sure you dont mind divulging what university you recieved your psychology degree from?
Likewise Chiloe, from what university did you recieve your degree in atmospheric physics or meteorology from?
You Norton, or Slater, or Mono, where is your climate science degrees from? Kelly, you dont need to answer.
Sci-fi, you are doing a good job of laying out your case under the initial stages of usual suspects attacks. On your bivis study up on weather wacko websites such as Grist.org. There attacks are straight out of the playbook.
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Norton
Social climber
quitcherbellyachin
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Oct 13, 2014 - 03:45pm PT
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Hey Norton, you are aware that most "docks", actually they are Piers, at every US Naval Installation throughout the US and Hawaii, are 22-26' with some even as high as 35-40' above the surface of the standard water line due to variable tides and in order to accommodate the deep drafts of most modern Naval Warships.
So please, do tell us how CC will put these "docks" under water in let's say, less than the next 250-400 year time frames.
no, I was not aware of that, and I don't give a damn, the Navy will adjust as needed
the height of Navy docks is hardly even a minor issue
what I was pointing out is that the Navy, being part of the government, is being paid off to lie about so called "climate change", the Navy can't be trusted ok?
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TLP
climber
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Oct 13, 2014 - 04:13pm PT
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You will simply have to take my word for what I tell you or judge me by my arguments and the data that I present.
I'm good with that. But having a bunch of fancy pants degrees and years of postdoc at hot-sh&t places and stacks of referreed pubs too, I can tell you that I have not an iota greater respect for an opinion that comes from a working scientist than from anybody who pounds nails or fishes the ocean floor - all I care is whether it is well explained, makes sense, isn't just an attack on an artificial straw man, and does not intentionally avoid well known data.
So far, you haven't presented a very good case. Just calling it "the climate religion" shows you are a priori badly biased, and your unequivocally inaccurate statements about what "the whole discussion" is about, both in climatology and on this specific ST thread shows that your reading comprehension is poor and your "critical thinking" is badly impaired if you misrepresent innumerable posts that everyone can read for themselves and see are not supportive of your statement. Maybe you do it differently in submitted papers, but that kind of stuff would have drawn some extremely negative comment from me when I was reviewing manuscripts.
I’m still waiting for any of you to show me unequivocal proof that CO2 is the dominant control of global climate.
Why does that matter? If it's a major component, that's plenty. I have read heaps of the literature linked here by various posters, and a key point that I see in these papers is not that CO2 is "dominant" but that it is at least one of the more sizeable components in long-term trends, often outweighed for periods of decades by other factors such as ocean fluxes and ocean-atmosphere exchange, and others. We've just seen a couple of posts making a big deal out of a new modeling paper (Harde et al. in press), but if you just only read the abstract, even that contribution (which may or may not stand the test of wider evaluation once it is in print for a while) supports a quantitative split of slightly more influence of solar variation than GHG, but only slightly/moderately (their numbers are 0.6 and 0.5 C). Given that solar, oceans, etc., are variable (up and down, on various times scales), and that the CO2 trend is unidirectional, even that paper supports an interpretation that human-related emissions are a rather important factor. Same thing for earlier review papers on solar variation.
And don’t give me “the oceans ate the heat” that has now been ruled out! Well, don't give us the kind of deliberate omission of statements in the very same text you link, which states "The temperature of the top half of the world's ocean - above the 2000 m mark - is still climbing, but not fast enough to account for the stalled air temperatures." and further down, "Coauthor Felix Landerer of JPL noted that during the same period, warming in the top half of the ocean continued unabated, an unequivocal sign that our planet is heating up."
When you're doing your geoscience work, do you make it a habit only to read the title of a paper and not any of its contents? Do you ever actually read the earlier papers that one at hand is responding to?
This ocean temperature stuff is pretty new and is based on pretty elaborate analysis of a lot of data, but compared with the size of the oceans and the short record, this line of investigation has a ways to go to refine the quantitative analysis. For sure, there is a LOT of data showing that the amount of heat energy that has been absorbed by the upper ocean is an enormous number. That may get revised up or down by 10 or 20 percent, or may vary enough globally that the quantitative discrepancy, such as it is, might yet get resolved. I'm interested in what else we may see in coming years, not in pronouncing the subject of ocean heat to be dead and irrelevant as you seem so quick to do (very unscientifically, do I even need to say that?).
Have a blast on El Cap, but bring us your A game scientifically when you are back.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Oct 13, 2014 - 04:16pm PT
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"I know what is up and down in this debate."
Laughable ,really.
Another who believes burning fossil fuels are actually good for our planet.
Check your Energy stocks.
Support extraction.
Anybody who links TWSJ for their climate arguments,is ,totally transparent.
And ,you guys mock college education just like anyone without one would.
Now you have a new hero ,from Stanford..........LTFOL.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Oct 13, 2014 - 04:28pm PT
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The Chief does not believe anything from our government,Malemute.
So therefore that must not be true.
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TradEddie
Trad climber
Philadelphia, PA
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Oct 13, 2014 - 04:45pm PT
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Hey Norton, you are aware that most "docks", actually they are Piers, at every US Naval Installation throughout the US and Hawaii,
C'mon, nobody pulled him up on that one? He can't even get basic geography correct but he's making expert claims about climate change.
TE
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Oct 13, 2014 - 04:47pm PT
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And you believe every fruitcake that stands against AGW.
Even if it is VERY LIKELY.
Tell me again that you are not a denier.
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TomCochrane
Trad climber
Santa Cruz Mountains and Monterey Bay
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Oct 13, 2014 - 04:48pm PT
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The Very, Very Thin Wedge of Denial
By Phil Plait
To me, one of the most fascinating aspects of climate change denial is how deniers essentially never publish in legitimate journals, but instead rely on talk shows, grossly error-laden op-eds, and hugely out-of-date claims (that were never right to start with).
In 2012, National Science Board member James Lawrence Powell investigated peer-reviewed literature published about climate change and found that out of 13,950 articles, 13,926 supported the reality of global warming. Despite a lot of sound and fury from the denial machine, deniers have not really been able to come up with a coherent argument against a consensus. The same is true for a somewhat different study that showed a 97 percent consensus among climate scientists supporting both the reality of global warming and the fact that human emissions are behind it.
Powell recently finished another such investigation, this time looking at peer-reviewed articles published between November 2012 and December 2013. Out of 2,258 articles (with 9,136 authors), how many do you think explicitly rejected human-driven global warming? Go on, guess!
One. Yes, one. Denial is a thin wedge indeed.
Huh. Here’s the thing: If you listen to Fox News, or right-wing radio, or read the denier blogs, you’d have to think climate scientists were complete idiots to miss how fake global warming is. Yet despite this incredibly obvious hoax, no one ever publishes evidence exposing it. Mind you, scientists are a contrary lot. If there were solid evidence that global warming didn’t exist, or that CO2 emissions weren’t the culprit, there would be papers in the journals about it. Lots of them.
I base this on my own experience with contrary data in astronomy. In 1998, two teams of researchers found evidence that the expansion of the Universe was not slowing down, as expected, but actually speeding up. This idea is as crazy as holding a ball in your hand, letting go, and having it fall up, accelerating wildly into the sky. Yet those papers got published. They inspired lively discussion (to say the least) and motivated further observations. Careful, meticulous work was done to eliminate errors and confounding factors, until it became very clear that we were seeing an overturning of the previous paradigm. It took years, but now astronomers accept that the Universal expansion is accelerating and that dark energy is the culprit.
Mind you, dark energy is far, far weirder than anything climate change deniers have come up with, yet it became mainstream science in a decade or so. Deniers have been bloviating for longer than that, yet their claims are rejected overwhelmingly by climate scientists. Why? Because they’re wrong.
Of course, if you listen to some politicians, you’d never know. Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), for example, still claims it’s all a hoax. Of course, he still thinks Climategate was a thing, when it’s been shown repeatedly to have been totally manufactured. He also thinks global warming must be wrong because it got cold outside. With all due respect to the senator, he’d fail middle school science. Good thing he’s on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. His denial of reality is joined by three-fourths of the Republicans on the House Science Committee, who still have their heads firmly buried in the sand.
Happily, though, there is opposition. Democrats in the Senate are pushing for Congress to take this situation more seriously, forming a “Climate Action Task Force” whose goal is to “wake up Congress.” They want to help organize civil groups to pressure senators into taking action about climate change.
Let me make a none-too-subtle political point here. Climate change deniers in politics and in the media are overwhelmingly Republican (or “free market libertarians,” who have aligned themselves to virtual indistinguishability from the GOP, or more likely vice versa). When I write on the politics of this issue I get accused of being biased, which is ironic indeed. I didn’t start this fight, nor did I draw the partisan lines. I’m just shining a light on them. I know some pro-science Republicans, but the ones in elected office are few and far between.
The basic science of global warming is independent of party line. It doesn’t care if you’re left, right, black, white, straight, gay, pro-gun, pro-abortion rights, pro-GMO, or pro-vaccine. It’s real, and it affects all of us. Mission No. 1 is to get people to understand this, and then to get them to elect politicians who do as well.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/01/14/climate_change_another_study_shows_they_don_t_publish_actual_papers.html
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