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sci-fi
climber
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Oct 11, 2014 - 10:27pm PT
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All of the models that you refer to project continuous warming for the past decade. That is indeed a very poor match with the observations.
Now it turns out that the deep oceans are not hiding any heat either.
Additionally, several recent papers show that the cooling effect of aerosols is also over estimated.
How can you claim that the models perform well and still keep a straight face?
Could it be that you and most climate scientists would lose your jobs for admitting you have wasted people's time and money?
There has been warming, yes.
But a direct correlation with CO2 is flat out ridiculous.
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Splater
climber
Grey Matter
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Oct 11, 2014 - 11:46pm PT
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Don't watch this fake video made in the same studio where the moon landings were faked.
clip from Chasing Ice At 1:50 it is clear that warming is being faked, the ice is being undermined by a giant black submarine icebreaker funded by those darned climate scientists. [Click to View YouTube Video]
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Oct 12, 2014 - 04:46am PT
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"There has been warming ,yes,But a direct correlation with CO2 is flat out ridiculous"
An anonymous denier named science fiction with 10 posts ,truly believable .
Trustworthy ,too.
Please ,do tell,how burning hydrocarbons are actually good for our planet.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Oct 12, 2014 - 04:47am PT
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Oct 12, 2014 - 05:24am PT
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The Arctic melting season ended last month. As we head back into winter many scientists are analyzing what happened in this relatively cool, low-circulation summer that saw area and extent similar to last year's, some rebound in volume, and yet open water from east Siberia up to 86 degrees North. New models showed apparent skill in prediction, as several papers in preparation (including a sequel to our GRL piece) should note.
These iconic bar charts of extent (Sep mean) and area (one-day minimum) have been posted on the Arctic Sea Ice blog, thought I'd share them here too. A volume graphic will join them this week.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Oct 12, 2014 - 05:47am PT
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Could it be that you and most climate scientists would lose your jobs for admitting you have wasted people's time and money?
strange assertion, you have evidence for this strange opinion?
There has been warming, yes.
But a direct correlation with CO2 is flat out ridiculous.
you seem to have missed over 100 years of science research on this topic. I suspect you are not too familiar with the scientific literature. Perhaps you could start here:
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/summary.htm
by the American Institute of Physics
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Oct 12, 2014 - 08:09am PT
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However, all of that involves working with what is already known. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems the main purpose of all these models is to help us predict what will happen in the future. And until those models are tested against real time data, we wont really know how well they are designed.
just because the actual values are known doesn't mean we cannot run the simulation "experiments" in a way that does not use that information. And in fact, if you read the link to the simulation experiment designs, you see they are doing exactly that, in order to measure the accuracy of the models.
testing the models agains "real time data" is something that is done all the time, however. And if you are saying we can't know if the models are correct or not until we see they are correct, then why run the models at all?
The plot in your last post is not from AR4, which was written in 2007, that plot has data values to 2013 in it... so your citation is incorrect. Perhaps you can give the actual citation.
Further, looking at that plot, we have to understand just what the values are that are plotted, in particular, the methods for normalizing he data sets (set to a single year? or an average of years? and which years? and why?) and the particulars of the data set (for instance, "UAH Lower Troposphere" is not a specific enough label, since that channel of the satellite actually looks at a large region of the atmosphere).
Finally, you have not in all these posts, stated what your criteria of agreement between the models and the "actual observations" is... is it 0.02º, 0.2º, 2.0º C? or a way you might actually calculate it...
from the last plot, you seem to be getting worked up over a 0.2º C disagreement, which apparently is not unexpected over the 100 year span. With a 1 to 2º C overall increase in the SST during that period, you seem to be quibbling over a 10 to 20% effect. The overall picture is clearly predicted by the model, including the range of variation due to things like volcanic aerosols, ENSO, solar variations... things we cannot currently predict within the models.
Having bounded the accuracy and understood the behavior of the models, it would seem they represent a very good (within 20%) prediction of the future, based on scenarios of CO2 emissions.
And the models continue to improve their performance.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Oct 12, 2014 - 08:41am PT
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Maybe I'm wrong
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Oct 12, 2014 - 09:32am PT
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Eddy a funny guy? Unless he is working as a contract lobbyist for the AGW/GCM industry I think not. Rather, it could well be quite sad as we witness the prolific ramblings (around 3000 posts) of a once first class mind into the oblivion of dementia. His failure to answer to the obvious inadequacies of the models ( his diversionary tactics as described by Sketch) might well be just another symptom of the decline of a calcifying brain.
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sci-fi
climber
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Oct 12, 2014 - 09:37am PT
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It also turns out that the whole assumption about a positive feed-back from clouds is plain wrong.
Pyrina, M., Hatzianastassiou, N., Matsoukas, C., Fotiadi, A., Papadimas, C. D., Pavlakis, K. G., & Vardavas, I. (2013). Cloud effects on the solar and thermal radiation budgets of the Mediterranean basin. Atmospheric Research:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016980951300330X
All of the catastrophic scenarios hinge on this critical point, because the temperature change from CO2 alone does not give any cause to worry about the future.
Here is the take home message from the above paper showing that the net effect of clouds is in fact cooling:
Hence more water vapour into the atmosphere due to warming will be buffered by the negative feed-back from clouds by increasing Earth's albedo.
It makes perfect sense, but some where along the way climate scientists have begun to believe more in the results that they get from computer models than from real world observations. That is not true science.
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sci-fi
climber
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Oct 12, 2014 - 09:42am PT
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Ed, you keep posting that comparison between model and socalled observations. The BEST data set is by no means the best avaiable temperature series that we have, but I guess it shows what you want to make us all believe?
None of the models that you show can reproduce the current temperature plateau.
Here is the only model that has so far accomplished this:
You can find the paper here:
http://www.witpress.com/elibrary/wit-transactions-on-engineering-sciences/83/27156
Guess what this model uses a climate sensitivity of 1.3C
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Oct 12, 2014 - 09:46am PT
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Yes, I think we all realize this Sketch. Good job on deconstructing the professors tactics, though descending to the same level of personal denigration as used by the climate nazis is ineffective. Have some compassion for their sick minds. I kid you yes/no.
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sci-fi
climber
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Oct 12, 2014 - 09:56am PT
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One thing that we actually should worry about is the cold which is to come in the next few decades.
It is nothing new that the solar activity affects Earth's climate.
E.g., Bond et al.(2001). Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the Holocene. Science, 294(5549), 2130-2136:
Guess what.
Solar activity is predicted to be minimal starting now.
Here is a new video that explains the relation between climate and solar activity in just 11 minutes:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-5dIHmtQzHIdNCs7-bEdCA
Seems you guys could learn a thing or two...
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sci-fi
climber
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Oct 12, 2014 - 10:31am PT
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Thanks.
I guess they only look at the information that supports their point of view and ignore the rest.
I wish the some of these dooms day prophets would see presentations by real scientist, such as this by Prof. Vincent Courtillot, explaining the current state of climate science:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IG_7zK8ODGA
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Oct 12, 2014 - 11:14am PT
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Yes they were Mono. There are hundreds of peer reviewed study papers from areas the globe over that confirm this. The isolation of the MWP and LIA to north atlantic Europe is another of CAGW's big lies used to legitamize their claims.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Oct 12, 2014 - 01:55pm PT
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complete-concrete-concise.com/mathematics/understanding-averages-mean-median-and-mode
If you like Spencer or Curry,then you are privy to reconstructions.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Oct 12, 2014 - 02:18pm PT
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There are hundreds of peer reviewed study papers from areas the globe over that confirm this.
I bet you cannot provide 10 citations... in the last 5 years.
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