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HighTraverse
Trad climber
Bay Area
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Sep 14, 2014 - 05:47pm PT
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excellent article
assuming the reader can actually follow the facts and science presented.
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Bob D'A
Trad climber
Taos, NM
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Sep 14, 2014 - 05:59pm PT
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Really..."According to an ongoing temperature analysis conducted by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and shown in this series of maps, the average global temperature on Earth has increased by about 0.8°Celsius (1.4°Fahrenheit) since 1880. Two-thirds of the warming has occurred since 1975, at a rate of roughly 0.15-0.20°C per decade."
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/decadaltemp.php
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Sep 14, 2014 - 06:23pm PT
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crankster
Trad climber
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Sep 14, 2014 - 07:01pm PT
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Hey! Another anonymous avatar, who can post anything they like and no one knows who they are.
I'm not getting this. Is there a Supertopo picnic I'm missing? I don't care who you are of what you do. Your words are what's important. And Chief, your words are all screwed up.
Have a picnic and I'll come out and tell you to your face, no problem.
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TGT
Social climber
So Cal
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Sep 14, 2014 - 07:07pm PT
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Extent of Antarctic sea ice reaches record levels, scientists say
Updated 15 Sep 2014, 11:58amMon 15 Sep 2014, 11:58am
Antarctic sea ice covers record area. Photo: An area about three times the size of Australia, in the Antarctic region, is now covered by sea ice. (British Antarctic Survey)
Scientists have declared a new record has been set for the extent of Antarctic sea ice since records began.
Satellite imagery reveals an area of about 20 million square kilometres covered by sea ice around the Antarctic continent.
Jan Lieser from the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) said the discovery was made two days ago.
"This is an area covered by sea ice which we've never seen from space before," he said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-14/record-coverage-of-antarctic-sea-ice/5742668
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bobinc
Trad climber
Portland, Or
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Sep 14, 2014 - 07:37pm PT
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'Extent' ~= volume
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Sep 14, 2014 - 07:52pm PT
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If you can read ,I am not an anonymous avatar.
You are ,Mr. I am ALWAYS RIGHT,this has happened before,we are all hypocrites,DENIER.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Sep 14, 2014 - 08:08pm PT
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You sure of that,aye?
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Sep 14, 2014 - 08:15pm PT
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Sep 14, 2014 - 09:35pm PT
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Sep 15, 2014 - 07:30am PT
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Yippee, I'm back to being MONO/JAMMER.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Sep 15, 2014 - 07:37am PT
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^^Chief, thanks for showing the 'pause' increased long term warming^^
Don't ya trust Spencer and Christy from UAH, Chief?
They are fellow 'skeptics', right?
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Splater
climber
Grey Matter
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Sep 15, 2014 - 11:56am PT
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"Nothing like the 15 plus year PAUSE ...
The C02 is climbing and temps are staying put."
As I already posted, recent surface temperatures are not a good indicator of the long term trend. That UCAR hindcast modeling validates that the pause in surface temperatures is temporary. "Almost all of the heat trapped by additional greenhouse gases during this period has been shown to be going into the deeper layers of the world’s oceans." http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/just-published/12313/progress-decadal-climate-prediction
Better indicators of global warming are:
Accelerating rate of sea level increase
Accelerating rate of ice melting
Rising ocean temperature measurements (where the heat is going).
For the surface temperature "pause" to be a valid indicator of a long term trend, you would need to show how the planet's heat flow is now in balance. You can't do that. Because it isn't in balance. Go back roughly 100-150 years to when it was very roughly in balance (normal variation not due to manmade CO2). Now calculate how much we have affected the greenhouse effect since then, and how much more we will affect it as we continue to pump out GHGs.
You would need to show that some new forcing have occurred since 1998 that have stopped the heat imbalance.
Again, there is no significant long term trend in those forcings that has stopped.
Or you can show that there is a heat sink in the deep ocean capable of holding 35 E22 joules without ever affecting surface temps.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/09/what-ocean-heating-reveals-about-global-warming/
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Splater
climber
Grey Matter
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Sep 15, 2014 - 12:29pm PT
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>>As I already posted, recent surface temperatures are not a good indicator of the long term trend.
"What is the "long term trend"... 30 something years?"
I don't know, I'm sure it has surprised many scientists already. Show me a peer-reviewed model or theory that shows that the "pause" isn't temporary.
>>For the surface temperature "pause" to be a valid indicator of a long term trend, you would need to show how the planet's heat flow is now in balance. You can't do that. Because it isn't in balance. Go back roughly 100-150 years to when it was very roughly in balance (normal variation not due to manmade CO2)
"Balance? So the definition of "balance" is anything prior to the Industrial Revolution. Correct? And who may I add stipulated that definition? "
I wrote that clearly indicating the point is to differentiate between limited natural trends and manmade trends.
"BTW: The above reference Splater, comes from a "blog" post that a year old and even the refs defined in it are older."
Is F=MA now invalid because that theory is now over a year old?
Is V=at or e=mc**2 now invalid ?
Are all websites equally valid? (comparing realclimate to WUWT)
Clue: Nothing in the last year has changed the point that most of the warming has gone into the oceans. In fact that is always true. As was already explained, 93% of the added heat goes to the oceans. 2% atmosphere, 2% continents, 2% ice melting.
The atmosphere doesn't have much heat capacity, and is not the best indicator of climate change at this point.
Clue #2:
The messenger is not the message.
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Splater
climber
Grey Matter
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Sep 15, 2014 - 03:23pm PT
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>>Show me a peer-reviewed model or theory that shows that the "pause" isn't temporary
>>Nothing in the last year has changed the point that most of the warming has gone into the oceans.
Post up any peer rev'd study that indicates that is the first time in the history of planet earth that has occurred and is NOT a normal process within the climate system.
I am talking about how the ocean could continue to heat WITHOUT affecting surface temperatures. Is there a valid model that allows ocean temperature to continue to rise without affecting surface temps?
Only recently have humans had the capability to massively change the atmosphere and the greenhouse effect. Is fossil fuel burning to get to 400 and later --> 500 ppm natural? If the temperature was 6 degrees hotter at some time in the past, is that a reason for a manmade efforts to continue to move towards that same temperature?
Just because humans 200 years ago did not really affect global climate is not a reason they can't affect it today. There are no good examples from the past that work well for the present. Maybe if you go back far enough to where volcanoes were so active that CO2 was higher than today. Even 500 years ago, much less 1 million, if the climate changed significantly, there were plenty of open spaces and humans were more used to uprooting their homes and moving somewhere else. That is not the same process today with X billion people and huge cities and infrastructure.
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TGT
Social climber
So Cal
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Sep 15, 2014 - 03:26pm PT
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http://nypost.com/2014/09/14/leo-v-science-vanishing-evidence-for-climate-change/
Oregon-based physicist Gordon Fulks sums it up well: “CO2 is said to be responsible for global warming that is not occurring, for accelerated sea-level rise that is not occurring, for net glacial and sea ice melt that is not occurring . . . and for increasing extreme weather that is not occurring.”
Consider:
• According to NASA satellites and all ground-based temperature measurements, global warming ceased in the late 1990s. This when CO2 levels have risen almost 10 percent since 1997. The post-1997 CO2 emissions represent an astonishing 30 percent of all human-related emissions since the Industrial Revolution began. That we’ve seen no warming contradicts all CO2-based climate models upon which global-warming concerns are founded.
•Rates of sea-level rise remain small and are even slowing, over recent decades averaging about 1 millimeter per year as measured by tide gauges and 2 to 3 mm/year as inferred from “adjusted” satellite data. Again, this is far less than what the alarmists suggested.
• Satellites also show that a greater area of Antarctic sea ice exists now than any time since space-based measurements began in 1979. In other words, the ice caps aren’t melting.
• A 2012 IPCC report concluded that there has been no significant increase in either the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events in the modern era. The NIPCC 2013 report concluded the same. Yes, Hurricane Sandy was devastating — but it’s not part of any new trend.
The climate scare, Fulks sighs, has “become a sort of societal pathogen that virulently spreads misinformation in tiny packages like a virus.”
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bobinc
Trad climber
Portland, Or
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Sep 15, 2014 - 03:28pm PT
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Fulks has worked hard to maintain his crank bona fides here in Oregon...
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HighTraverse
Trad climber
Bay Area
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Sep 15, 2014 - 03:29pm PT
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since when is the NY Post a source of verifiable news?
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Norton
Social climber
quitcherbellyachin
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Sep 15, 2014 - 03:35pm PT
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RECORD AUGUST HEAT
This past August was the warmest since records began in 1881, according to new data released by NASA. The latest readings continue a series of record or near-record breaking months. May of this year was also the warmest in recorded history.
Dr. Gavin Schmidt, a climatologist and climate modeler at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, told The Huffington Post that while the agency's data does indicate that this August was the hottest on record, the difference falls within a few hundredths of a degree compared with previous Augusts.
Schmidt cautioned against focusing on any one month or year, but instead on the fact that "the long-term trends are toward warming." A very hot August, he said, is just one piece of the data that "point[s] towards the long-term trends.
hp
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