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bluering
Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
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Mar 18, 2014 - 12:09am PT
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Ken M has it right..Much like iraq and Afghanistan has drained our coffers , the Ukraine will do the same for Poo-in- a-tin...Bluering...? So now you're rooting for the Bolsheviks..? There's a twist...
Do some research on Kosovo and Serbia. This has nothing to do with "independence", and everything to do with oil pipelines.
We need to to stay the f*#k out of this stuff 'over there', and focus on our own affairs and energy here.
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TGT
Social climber
So Cal
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Mar 18, 2014 - 12:18am PT
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Debating whether Putin is following the Hitler playbook displays a basic ignorance of history. Japan followed that same playbook in its invasion of Manchuria; a staged incident, a rapid invasion and a puppet regime. It didn't originate that playbook. It's probably as old as human history. Hitler's invasion of Poland made it notorious in a world that has managed to forget everything else that happened around that time.
Secretary of State John Kerry mumbled that Putin was guilty of 19th century behavior in the 21st century, but it's actually Kerry who is guilty of 19th century behavior. President Woodrow Wilson had lived through the Civil War. His father had owned slaves. Lord Balfour's godfather was the Iron Duke who had defeated Napoleon. Georges Clemenceau narrowly avoided being locked up by Napoleon III.
The League of Nations was the successor to a 19th century organization and the men who conceived it and built it had largely been born in the 1850s and 60s. They weren't 20th century men building a better world, but 19th century men inflicting ideas that were already outdated on the modern world.
Their ideas didn't work then and they don't work now.
The bewildered responses to Russia's invasion of Ukraine are a naïve piece of theater that should have been retired in the 19th century, but somehow endures into the 21st as the lovers of peace insist on guaranteeing an end to aggression based on worthless pieces of paper that they have no intention of defending by armed force and then act surprised when their bluff is called and they frantically scramble to convince their own people that peace has been secured for our time.
Alexander Cadogan's blunt statement remains relevant today. The Pax Americana is over. We have been living on bluff and Putin called it.
http://sultanknish.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-end-of-international-law.html
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Mar 18, 2014 - 03:20am PT
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It comes down to this TGT.. if Putin cares enough to go to war for Crimea.. he can have it.
He will pay a price.. but he seems willing.
What do you recommend? War with Russia?
Now that would be stupid.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Mar 18, 2014 - 04:37am PT
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Roberts and now Greenfield and Schiff, jesus christ, the quality of sourcing just gets more pathetic by the post; might as well be quoting foreign policy from the three stooges in this instance.
Wtf, get a clue, Putin isn't acting out of strength or in response to any weakness of ours - he's acting out of gross insecurity. Insecurity over their energy export cashflow and their naval facilities. And in response he's fear-mongering and fanning nationalistic sentiments - it's what the politically insecure do almost by definition. I.e. his actions are more for internal consumption than any form of display to the West and you can tell the domestic risks are greater than the external ones by the degree to which he's willing to alienate the West in this process after a decade of trying to improve Russia's image abroad.
And the Ukraine isn't about oil - it's about gas, in the form of pipelines to the EU and in potential local shale that could ease some of the domestic gas reliance on Russia. Except that at the moment Exxon is caving and abandoning their gas exploration and production commitments in the Ukraine faster than you can spit solely because of their far larger involvement with W. Siberian Bazhenov shale. Their board and management - of course, being true American patriots, republicans and staunch capitalists all, are simply doing what must be done - following the money and Putin is their newest best friend. But the bottom line is if Russia couldn't export oil and gas they'd drown in the stuff and be broke in a heartbeat. It's not a pretty picture.
And while the Sevastopol naval bases are a particularly sensitive issue for them (especially given their other port with Mediterranean access is in Syria), the sad truth is Russia is basically f*#ked from a naval perspective all the way around. In any serious conflict not a single surface ship of the Sevastopol or Kaliningrad fleets would make it to the Atlantic - the Baltic and Black Seas are like shooting fish in a barrel both with very narrow bottleneck passage ways out to open ocean. And the trip down from Murmansk for the the northern fleet isn't all that much better what with the distance they have to cover before even becoming a factor in any conflict. Basically, all their options for accessing the Atlantic involve running an unwinnable gauntlet and they know it. That and they are hopelessly out-gunned in the Pacific. Again, it's about insecurity.
So, if you're buying into to all of Putin's bravado and mistaking it for strength then you really are naive and missing the bigger picture.
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WBraun
climber
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Mar 18, 2014 - 11:59am PT
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The west has gone full bore into damage control.
The Putinator has made the west and the Americans look stoopidier then ever.
He out maneuvers them every time.
The west is now crying like little girls.
Supertopo zombies are now crying little girls .....
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vlani
Trad climber
mountain view, ca
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Mar 18, 2014 - 01:35pm PT
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healyje you are missing a bit in your Russian perspective.
Russia has no interest in involvement in any sort of conflict in Atlantic, unlike US. Sevastopol navy has great symbolic value but none military - the fleet cannot leave the Black sea without free passage from Turkey. For that reason it was not updated for decades.
Unlike US with emphasis on aircraft carriers - the assault weapon - in her military doctrine, Russia builds submarines with aircraft carrier destroyer capability. To me that looks like a defense doctrine targeted against the most obvious world aggressor. And those submarines are based on Arctic and Pacific shores. Check the map - Russia got plenty of that.
The whole western take of Crimea development is a huge hypocrisy. Public gets feed with tons of bs. None doubted that the vote to join Russia was overwhelming, none doubted that it will be beforehand. So the different card was brought up. Illegitimate Kiev government declared referendum illegitimate.
Everyone quotes that Crimea become a part of Ukraine in 1954 - it had not. Check the world map for that year, try to find Ukraine on it.
And more and more.. Forget the reality, focus on Putin as he does not obey was the mantra of the weeks.
It is hard to predict what will follow, but disintegration of the rest of Ukraine is not unlikely. The 20 years of Ukraine statehood were rough. Russia is not huge economic power of the world, but Ukraine is in much worse shape. The unearthed state of the military with plains that do not fly and tanks that do not move is a good indication of the country's condition.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Mar 18, 2014 - 04:46pm PT
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Vlani, I'm not missing that perspective. Russia's projection of naval power rests solely on her ability to keep submarines at sea in numbers and for those to go toe-to-toe with ours. That capability is quite diminished these days, but still capable of inflicting unthinkable devastation, as is our own. It's a capability of last resort with little real utility in day to day regional events such as are unfolding now. It's also an incredibly expensive capability to field and maintain.
What one can say about these events is they are based on Putin's personal (and also Chinese historical / cultural) belief that in the end it's all about will. But claims about the 'death of international law' are grossly overblown as it's based on long-term costs and consequences of relationships. That said, this kind of action by Putin can - in part - be directly attributed to decades of our own rightwing's hysterical ranting about the UN, World Court and International Treaties in general. The US right and Putin have been working out of the exact same pathetic nationalistic 'we are the one...' playbook. The results are always predictable.
And those perceptions of 'will' have also been seriously compounded by the neocon's tepid 'keep shopping' adventurism which resulted in spending six trillion dollars solely for China and Iran's benefit and exposing the limits of our collective suburban will to the world. W's entire administration might have well been on China's payroll. And China remains the real strategic threat - what we're seeing play out with Putin is an opportunistic sideshow by an man who considers himself the keeper of Russian male essence. It's a lot of noise and of little substance in long run where the time and geopolitics are not really on his side.
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dirtbag
climber
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Mar 21, 2014 - 08:28pm PT
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Crimea River.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Mar 21, 2014 - 08:46pm PT
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Good points Vlani and Healy. Not much to add to Vlani's but to Healy I would
say that no amount of ranting by our neocons negates the facts that the
UN and the World Court are only as strong, as you put it, as we 'will' them to be.
Europe doesn't have a strong record to run on in this respect although they
are making a good show of it, for now. But I trust the Russians will play
the namby-pamby euros like the 'woodpushers' they are, to use a chess analogy.
Putin can easily afford to spot the Euros a pawn as his middle game will
prove much stronger. Do not underestimate both the Russians' will or ability
to suffer, they are passed masters of the latter in particular. Even liberals
there will rally around the flag when the chips are down. One dare not do otherwise.
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High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
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Mar 21, 2014 - 08:56pm PT
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.....
Forget the reality...
Our world religions, every single one of them, teach that.
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bluering
Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
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Mar 21, 2014 - 09:07pm PT
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Healyje, you are thinking old-school cold war.
Russia has secured her port in Crimea, and obviously the Northern ports are still there.
Venezuela, Cuba, and Vietnam are now securing bids to allow Russian bases for Russian aircraft (heavy bombers).
They don't need much more than that. Especially if they get naval ports in those countries.
We're getting played like a stratocaster by Jimi 'Putin' Hendrix.
I'm actually ashamed for my country. It's almost like we are being intentionally crippled. The incompetence is unbelievable. Almost intentional.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Mar 21, 2014 - 09:12pm PT
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Now, Bluey, it ain't that bad. You don't want Obama to have to take Angela's
trash out in addition to doing her dishes, do you? The man's gotta have
a little self-respect.
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Majid_S
Mountain climber
Karkoekstan
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 21, 2014 - 11:12pm PT
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healyje took that piton and hit it right in to the crack.I totally agreed with his comment.
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vlani
Trad climber
mountain view, ca
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Mar 22, 2014 - 12:45am PT
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Pitin's picture above is outdated. He has grown some cheeks since.
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Dr.Sprock
Boulder climber
I'm James Brown, Bi-atch!
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Mar 22, 2014 - 02:13am PT
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you guys ever hear of a guy named Clayton J. Lonetree?
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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Mar 22, 2014 - 02:23am PT
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Healyje, you are thinking old-school cold war.
Russia has secured her port in Crimea, and obviously the Northern ports are still there.
Venezuela, Cuba, and Vietnam are now securing bids to allow Russian bases for Russian aircraft (heavy bombers).
They don't need much more than that. Especially if they get naval ports in those countries.
We're getting played like a stratocaster by Jimi 'Putin' Hendrix.
I'm actually ashamed for my country. It's almost like we are being intentionally crippled. The incompetence is unbelievable. Almost intentional.
There you have it folks. It is hard to get any kind of prediction, but finally.
so if Putin takes another inch, you know that Blue was FOS.
"The incompetence is unbelievable".....except that the groundcrawlers like this advocate NO other course of action, NO other diplomatic actions, NO use of military, NO press releases, NO actual strategy or tactics.
Talk about intentional incompetence.
"When in quandary, when in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout"
Yep, great strategy. Must be great on a SAR.
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bluering
Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
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Mar 22, 2014 - 11:09am PT
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Ken, you're ignoring the FACT that the EU and our State Dept instigated this. It blew up in their faces.
The elected leader of Ukraine declined EU's offers and favored Putin's counter-offers to not join the EU. That is when all this started.
The EU just wanted Ukraine for their own raping.
EDIT: "When in quandary, when in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout"
Sounds like our State Dept and the EU. Putin is perfectly calm, dude. As am I.
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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Mar 22, 2014 - 02:22pm PT
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Ken, you're ignoring the FACT that the EU and our State Dept instigated this. It blew up in their faces.
The elected leader of Ukraine declined EU's offers and favored Putin's counter-offers to not join the EU. That is when all this started.
The EU just wanted Ukraine for their own raping.
The PEOPLE of Ukraine decided that they would rather be involved with the EU, rather than Russia. The elected leader of Ukraine DESERTED THE COUNTRY, after ordering the military to fire on his own people, and after emptying the treasury of the country into his own pockets.
Love to keep people subjugated, don't ya?
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