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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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I don't know what plot that The Chief is looking at... perhaps he can provide it for us...
the snow depth for 2013-2014 winter, and for 1989-1990, for Bishop Pass...
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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I wonder if The Chief can read...
from the link he supplies:
What we find is that Hansen's results add to the long list of evidence that climate sensitivity is not low. As noted above, Hansen's model overpredicted the ensuing global warming thus far by approximately 15 to 25%. Thus if we estimate that the sensitivity of his model was 15 to 25% too high (which is an oversimplification, but will give us a reasonably accurate back-of-the-envelope estimate), this suggests the actual climate sensitivity is approximately 3.4 to 3.6°C for doubled CO2, which is close to the IPCC best estimate of 3°C.
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Hansen's Accuracy
Had Hansen used a climate model with a climate sensitivity of approximate 3°C for 2xCO2 (at least in the short-term, it's likely larger in the long-term due to slow-acting feedbacks), he would have projected the ensuing rate of global surface temperature change accurately. Not only that, but he projected the spatial distribution of the warming with a high level of accuracy. The take-home message should not be "Hansen was wrong therefore climate models and the anthropogenic global warming theory are wrong;" the correct conclusion is that Hansen's study is another piece of evidence that climate sensitivity is in the IPCC stated range of 2-4.5°C for 2xCO2.
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Bob D'A
Trad climber
Taos, NM
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The Chief:
When it is said and done the middle of April, I am willing to bet you $10 we will have a total of over 200+ inches. The MJO has shifted to Sector 7 and on the move to 6. That means shifting the regular Asian Tropical Jetstream south with wet and copious storms for Central California.
Spring of 90' saw less snow through February here in the Sierra than we have had this season. Then the exact same thing occurred with the MJO. The MJO shifted west to Sector 6, it let loose and we received over 260" of snowfall @ Mammoth and Bishop Passes in two and half months from the last week of Feb through the end of April.
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Bob D'A
Trad climber
Taos, NM
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You are a sick puppy little Ricky.
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Bob D'A
Trad climber
Taos, NM
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You are a stalking idiot and a pussy to boot. Can't make in the real world could you? A little mental you are.
Chief wrote: SKetch was right. You are a winner.
Yes I care what you and Sketch think.
Chief wrote: But there is one problem with your statement/theory, taking it up the Ass will not get anyone the Fouled Anchor and then "pinned". The 33 man board that determines that is locked up in a room for 22 days in DC and it takes a majority vote in order to get selected. It is all based on your performance record and experience that is all on paper from a 4-6 year period
Like we care what happens in your little boys club.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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your post was dated:
Feb 25, 2014 - 03:11pm PT
http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=970221&msg=2351537#msg2351537
and the quote from your post:
"...When it is said and done the middle of April...
so you posted on Feb 25, 2014 and you were talking about the middle of April... it is true you didn't specify what year, but then you're prediction would be pretty meaningless if you were intending to wait for a year which your prediction was correct, without stating that year.
I did assume that you were talking about 2014. If you weren't then that would be my mistake, but your foolishness (which you never cease to display, so what's new there).
As for the "data" from Mammouth Mountain, maybe you could back that up with the CDEC data?
you wouldn't actually want to use "real" data would you?
hey Bob, you're letting The Chief get to you? actually that's his game, to be annoying, he owns that and is content with it, like a pig rolling in... well you know what pigs roll in.
shine it on, Bob...
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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No Eddy, you are wrong, I get it perfectly. Curry spent a lot of her time on the project to get the best (no pun intended) temp reconstruction possible. Why should she remove her name (number two on the author list) from the first publications when she was proud of her efforts? You can stand behind the science , but object to the political theatrics used by the lead author to drum up increased interest and funding.BEST started out to be the definitive earth temperature study, not an attribution study and coming out party for the lead author.
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Bob D'A
Trad climber
Taos, NM
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Ed..he is posting personal information, he is a stalking idiot and sick in the head to boot.
Also he is a punk, just a little navy punk.
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Bob D'A
Trad climber
Taos, NM
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Stalking idiot.
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Bob D'A
Trad climber
Taos, NM
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Chief you are to dumb to realize what is going down...I win. See you when I get to Bishop.
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thebravecowboy
climber
strugglin' to make time to climb
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not that the herd is always right or anything. but...this is a herd of scientists we're talking about.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Sep 10, 2014 - 07:10am PT
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Roy Spencer, a favorite scientist of climate denialists, in a recent blog post went steps further than even he has before -- some might say, jumped the shark. By suggesting that nature is causing the observed rise in atmospheric CO2. To a nonscientist that might sound technical, but to scientists it's the equivalent of a dentist who says Pepsi is good for your teeth -- the anthropogenic CO2 rise is that well established.
Coincidentally, the World Meteorolgical Organization issued a new report this week noting that CO2 levels surged last year at the fastest rate since 1984, setting new modern records.
"The Greenhouse Gas Bulletin shows that, far from falling, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere actually increased last year at the fastest rate for nearly 30 years," said Michel Jarraud, secretary general of the WMO....
"We are running out of time."
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Sep 10, 2014 - 07:14am PT
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So, how do almost all scientists (except RS and a few others) know that CO2 is rising? The first definitive evidence came from the Mauna Loa measurement series called the Keeling Curve. Here that is, up through last month:
Some nonscientists objected that was just Mauna Loa, but no, it's now been replicated from other stations worldwide:
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Sep 10, 2014 - 07:23am PT
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And how do they know that rise is caused by humans? Here the evidence is very diverse and all points in the same direction. Including isotope ratios that fingerprint the excess CO2 as coming from geological sources (i.e., fossil fuels) rather than recent biological activity; detailed studies of sources and sinks including the fact that oceans too are absorbing more CO2, measurable drawdown of atmospheric oxygen corresponding to what's burned....
Or just the simple logical question, where else do you think that 30 gigatons of CO2 we're releasing is going?
Somehow none of the science had registered with RS. But something else did.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Sep 10, 2014 - 07:29am PT
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Then someone, among the chorus of reasonable voices telling Spencer he had jumped the shark, pointed to Law Dome. This detailed CO2 record going back a thousand years, from air trapped in Antarctic ice, was published in 1996 and has become very well known by all climate scientists, as other studies confirmed its conclusions. Astonishingly, Spencer admitted not knowing about it until a reader told him on his blog.
So here is the Law Dome series, now you know about it too (if you didn't already).
And here is Law Dome record together with the global instrumental measurements to bring it up to date/
You can't miss that takeoff at the Industrial Revolution. Even Roy Spencer could see that.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Sep 10, 2014 - 07:48am PT
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The Chief fails to understand the difference between global temps vs. local temps.
Surprising? Nah.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Sep 10, 2014 - 08:01am PT
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Strange how he neglected ...
Actually The Chief, I find it telling how you neglect the many arguments that have been posted proving that the climate is changing faster than ever and that man-made emissions is the cause.
I do see the very localized temps rising in your graph. Interesting.
Where do you think 2014 will come out in the the hottest years on record?
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Sep 10, 2014 - 08:05am PT
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The Chief, show me one post where I said you "stated IT IS NOT WARMING."
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Sep 10, 2014 - 08:14am PT
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Hmm.
Hmm.
(I gotta get to work Sketch, but don't let that stop you from continuing this thought provoking conversation.)
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