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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Aug 27, 2014 - 08:41pm PT
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Another area that makes me skeptical is the reluctance (among the experts) to admit they may have overestimated their forecasts.
you probably wouldn't be skeptical because of their reluctance to admit they may have underestimated their forecasts, would you...
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Aug 27, 2014 - 09:34pm PT
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Well Fast Eddy, still playing Slick Willy's is ism games. You'd be a perfect democratic (mis) representative. Seriously, are you considering a run for elective office?
As far as the meaning of the terms precision and accuracy go as applicable to scientific hypothesis and theory, let's look at Einsteins famous theory of general relativity as compared to the infamous hypothesis of CAGW. The accuracy of Einsteins theory has been verified again and again to the limits of precision of devised experiment and equipment and is a foundation upon which our modern reality is built. The Imfamous hypothesis of CAGW has failed testable predictions again and again ( little details like relative humidity decrease instead of increase, the suggested monotonous linear rise of temps along with CO2, Antarctic sea ice increase along with sea and land surface temp decreases in the area, the recent rebound in Arctic sea ice, general decreases in storm severity and frequency, the now fifteen plus year period of flat line global average surface temps) and is only kept alive by hysterical attributions of all things weather related exceeding outright lies and "expert handling" of data that decreases climate change of the past while exagerating the modest change of the present.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Aug 27, 2014 - 09:40pm PT
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you're babbling about stuff you have no idea about, rick.
one of the most fundamental predictions of General Relativity has not been directly observed (not that we think we won't, but nature has a way of surprising us)...
and the explanation of the Earth's surface temperature predated General Relativity by about 19 years... and did so accurately.
they are both very good theories with many tests challenging them. I'd say you have as much understanding of climate science as you do about General Relativity.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Aug 27, 2014 - 09:46pm PT
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I don't know why you bother Ed. But thanks. Always EDifying.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Aug 27, 2014 - 09:54pm PT
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Yet more is ism Ed?
Id say the explanation of Earths climate and temps predated general relativity by at least five thousand years with ancient science and religion as practiced by the likes of the Egyptians. If these early practitioners were alive today I'm sure they would tell us "its the sun stupids".
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Aug 27, 2014 - 11:01pm PT
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Ran out of gas Bruce? There tank lasted three thousand years. Our modern and increasingly disfunctional western civilization will be lucky to have three hundred years. Like the progression of the Roman empire in hyperdrive.
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raymond phule
climber
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Aug 28, 2014 - 05:26am PT
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Can I trust the validity of a plot when one of the comments inside the plot is obviously wrong?
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Aug 28, 2014 - 06:26am PT
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It makes you sound so smart.
On the other hand, passive aggressive attacks don't make one sound very smart.
But, they do offer a view into the character of a person.
how do you define accuracy?
The quality or state of being correct or precise.
Sketch, your definition is straight from a Google search, perhaps from the Oxford dictionary? Didn't you once berate me for using a definition from the internet when you asked me to define the difference between weather and climate?
Question: How do you define "hypocrite?"
It's refreshing to get a civil respectful answer.
Thanks for not being a condescending little f*#kwad.
Sketch, it would certainly be refreshing if you could show respect, but my first quote from you above shows you're often condescending. And thanks for giving us your definition for how you view condescending people. I agree with that one.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Aug 28, 2014 - 06:55am PT
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Ever heard of Richard Betts?
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Aug 28, 2014 - 07:08am PT
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Funny how you don't seem to have an issue with the untoward comments by like-minded posters.
You mean their comments in response to you being condescending and disrespectful?
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Aug 28, 2014 - 08:47am PT
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When I post some obvious flame-bait...
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Aug 28, 2014 - 08:59am PT
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as for your comparison of data to model, can you even explain what it means?
where the data come from that appear on the plot,
and how the plot was made?
or do you consider all these details to be the "obscurity of scientific nomenclature" (like rick) and irrelevant to your discussion...
did you even look at the links to Science above (which you could probably read at your local library) talking about recent work on the North Atlantic?
let's take the graphic you poached from some unattributed web site as a lesson...
what parts of the graph illustrate the concept of "precision"
and which the concept of "accuracy"
obviously you do not know, but you could learn...
here's a quick tutorial for you:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accuracy_and_precision
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Aug 28, 2014 - 09:13am PT
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so what about accuracy, precision and the role they play in the statement that you posted about the "energy balance"?
how well do we do in "closing" the "energy balance"?
how well do we have to do?
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Aug 28, 2014 - 09:35am PT
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you're not a "half-witted hayseed", Sketch, that characterization would be both insulting to hayseeds in general, and a gross over estimate of wits.
how well do we have to do?
you don't know, and you won't answer, and you especially have no idea why it matters...
but I'll be back tonight to provide a bit of an answer...
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dave729
Trad climber
Western America
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Aug 28, 2014 - 11:29am PT
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Warmist's agenda looks like they want to kill off humanity by reducing CO2!
Remember CO2 levels were near 4000ppm long ago when plants first developed.
Plants cannot live and die when CO2 levels go below about 200ppm.
Life on Earth has never been so close to extinction with such dangerously
low levels of CO2 in the air as todays 400ppm demonstrate.
How lucky are we that by burning fossil fuels and raising CO2 levels are actually saving plants and ourselves. Keeping the air well about the
'dead zone' of CO2 200ppm is all important.
800ppm would provide a safe buffer and green the planet nicely. These misguided Warmists need to stfu and stop trying to murder us.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Aug 28, 2014 - 08:43pm PT
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so how much energy is there that results in heating the Earth?
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Aug 28, 2014 - 09:35pm PT
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You've already posted Trenberths energy budget many times Ed. Perhaps you should consult it again for your desired answer ( or actually desired non answer) . If you guys would admit that just maybe cloud and ground albedo increases, Increased convection, and satellite observations of increased outgoing LW radiation, along with reduced solar output in some spectrums and indices balance without the need to rathole the missing heat, perhaps you wouldn't be in such denial of the present cooling.
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dave729
Trad climber
Western America
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Aug 28, 2014 - 11:05pm PT
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Woo-hoo! Rick skewers the catastropharians again.
Look guys, either we get a warmer climate to farm the millions of acres
of tundra to feed future billions or else you will be eating
a gak diet of reindeer moss with a smile on your silly faces..but
its out of our hands..really.
The Sun will kill us or save us no matter what the CO2 level is.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Aug 28, 2014 - 11:13pm PT
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ah, no rick I'm not going to post that as we are trying to establish "how good" and what that means...
you can get this one right, or you should be able to, as you like the sun so much...
how much energy falls on the Earth from the Sun?
do you have any idea?
could you calculate it?
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