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HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
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Jul 28, 2014 - 05:23pm PT
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Sketch posted Seems like two of the biggest issues for many of the well known skeptics are how the problem is constantly overstated.... and how failed predictions are quietly brushed aside or excused.
Like what, exactly? Which predictions have failed to come true, considering all the actual scientists are making predictions out to 2040 or 2100. If you've been there and back and have something to share we'd all really appreciate hearing it.
So if the Earth is actually cooling, where is all the ice going, Sketch/TGT? The microclimate over every single glacier in the world just happens to be out of whack? Or is this another "the people trying to help are actually hurting" issue like welfare or affirmative action where the Arctic ice is vanishing because of recycling and whaling prohibition?
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Jul 29, 2014 - 07:46am PT
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How about the IPCC's first report projected warming of 0.2-0.5 Cº/decade.
That was for Scenario A, the highest emission forcing scenario.
Actual emissions have been closer to Scenario D. The best estimate for Scenario D was .17C per decade. Actual temp increase: .16C/decade.
Not bad, wouldn't you agree Sketch?
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jul 29, 2014 - 08:26am PT
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If James (the kilt) Hansen had any success in predictions that have come to fruition it is based on fudged data to fit the scriptures of the church of climate modeling and holy weather rollers. It is high time that this psuedo religious babbling of forked tongues cease. No one among the sensory and mind intact is listening anymore.
The world is at the beginning of a distinct cooling trend, one in which the feeble effects of IR impeding, and natural I might add CO2 , greenhouse gases will be overpowered by cascading feedbacks induced by variations in old Sols output. Hansen Shmansen.
Get a new hobby Bruce. Knitting wollen sweaters might be in order and might soothe your surly disposition.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Jul 29, 2014 - 08:27am PT
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You made the original claim, Sketch. You prove that we actually experienced Scenario A, business as usual.
Apply the same standards to yourself, that you demand from others, Sketch.
Hint: Did business as usual scenario include the collapse of the Soviet Union, The Kyoto protocol on CFC's, the growth of renewable energy sources, slower economic growth?
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Jul 29, 2014 - 09:20am PT
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Good for you, Sketch, resorting to Ad Hominem attacks.
Right on 'queue'.
Wow Sketch, your first chart shows radiative forcing increased by .63 watts/m2.
And what's your problem with your second chart?
Thanks Sketch. You are a self-debunking machine.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Jul 29, 2014 - 09:38am PT
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The charts you posted are from NOAA, Sketch.
Are you denying the data is correct?
Go after the data, Sketch, not the source.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Jul 29, 2014 - 09:47am PT
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LOL, attacking the source as partisan.
That's an Ad Hominem attack, Sketch.
Go after the data, Sketch.
Are you saying NOAA is partisan as well, which makes the data wrong?
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Jul 29, 2014 - 09:57am PT
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I like how you keep editing your response, Sketch. Good for you.
Now which Skeptical Science chart is not based on actual NOAA data or the First Assesment report?
Please be specific. No more Ad Hominems please.
As for the .63 watts/m2, please refer to the left axis. Note the increase from 1990 to 2010.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Jul 29, 2014 - 10:02am PT
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LOL, good luck Sketch.
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raymond phule
climber
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Jul 29, 2014 - 10:38am PT
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As for the .63 watts/m2, please refer to the left axis. Note the increase from 1990 to 2010.
Left axis?
It shows radiative forcing from 0.0 to 3.0. 2013 appears to be 2.9.
How does it show ".63 watts/m2"?
LOL!!! You really cant make this stuff up.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Jul 30, 2014 - 09:08pm PT
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Sad, really.
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
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Jul 30, 2014 - 10:26pm PT
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That's tragic naming your son Sketch...How bout a hug little fella...?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jul 31, 2014 - 09:13am PT
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See the climate science PR division (haha) has done a huge disservice to the actual science through catastrophic sensationalism and doomsaying.
I don't know this "climate science PR division (haha)", but among actual researchers the talk gets pretty gloomy. Don't take my word for it, or the media's -- check out the contents in a few issues of leading journals in any climate-relevant field to see what scientists are saying to each other. They're often not good at PR, but unhappily learning about what happens if you don't engage with this hyper-partisan information environment, while others spin your work.
Many scientists talking to each other or looking up from their data say we're in trouble. They see real problems, with climate not the fastest among them. Is that "doomsaying?" Should they shut up?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jul 31, 2014 - 09:20am PT
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LOL!!! You really cant make this stuff up.
To borrow the title from a recent post on And Then There's Physics, We need a better class of climate "skeptic"!
ATTP refers to his discouraging efforts at discussion with some prominent "skeptics" but the conclusions could apply to the less prominent as well.
The problem, I think, is that there is actually no sensible middle ground. If you have sufficient knowledge to understand the science and how science works, and have a sufficiently open mind, you end up largely agreeing with the mainstream position. The alternative is to simply look like a crackpot; sometimes with enough knowledge to make a fool of yourself, but not enough to know that you’re doing it. Clearly not everyone who agrees with the mainstream position agrees about everything or about all the details, but they agree about the basics and broadly agree with the IPCC projections. There are some who are seen as being on the more skeptical side of the spectrum, but most of this is healthy skepticism, rather than yes, but conspiracy theory.
So, that’s the problem I’m facing at the moment. There are certainly people with whom I can have interesting and worthwhile discussions about the science, but when it comes to people like Rose, Ridley, Montford, Keenan, Webster, it all seems rather pointless. They either don’t know enough to know that they’re wrong, or they’re being dishonest. In either case, it’s really not worth taking a discussion with them seriously. Of course, one could choose to not take it seriously, but I’m not sure I can really be bothered or have the stomach for that. All I can say is that I’m looking forward to the end of this week, when I start a two week holiday .
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jul 31, 2014 - 09:21am PT
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Yes, shut your trap.
Give us realistic solutions instead of self serving paranoid delusions of doom and you just might win some hearts and minds.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jul 31, 2014 - 09:22am PT
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Yes, shut your trap.
Case in point.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Jul 31, 2014 - 09:44am PT
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I don't know this "climate science PR division (haha)", but among actual researchers the talk gets pretty gloomy. Don't take my word for it, or the media's -- check out the contents in a few issues of leading journals in any climate-relevant field to see what scientists are saying to each other. They're often not good at PR, but unhappily learning about what happens if you don't engage with this hyper-partisan information environment, while others spin your work.
Many scientists talking to each other or looking up from their data say we're in trouble. They see real problems, with climate not the fastest among them. Is that "doomsaying?" Should they shut up?
I respectfully disagree with Rick and say they should not "shut up."
"Give 'em enough rope," as they say.
One has to wonder when ST's favorite "Dunning–Kruger effect" poster will look in a mirror.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jul 31, 2014 - 09:59am PT
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Yes, of course Blahblah, but sometimes it helps to goad them into tying the noose as they rage looking into that mirror.
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