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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jul 12, 2014 - 10:33am PT
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If climate change is real then why does it still get colder at night?
It doesn't really get colder at night. You just have to run fast enough to keep up with the daylight.
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Mark Force
Trad climber
Cave Creek, AZ
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Jul 12, 2014 - 10:47am PT
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occasionally this process of independently working through papers reveals the paper to be incorrect. Having found the errors, editors might followup and request a retraction. Errors are committed for all sorts of reasons, occasionally these are intentional, to claim an important result. It has always been odd to me that the intentional alteration, of fabrication of data or of some technique, would be used by scientists who know that important results are scrutinized by other scientists, and that science generally rewards activities that are critical of scientific results in general. You get big browny points for showing something is incorrect...
Ed nailed it. You better be on it when you publish because if somebody can shoot your paper down, they will, cuz you do definitely get "browny points" for being able to prove you're smarter guy in the pool. Spotting BS is a serious game in science. This is exactly why the idea of conspiracy by scientists of one area of expertise would work, much less between multiple areas of expertise (i.e. between the climatologists and the biologists). The idea is without any iota of sound reason.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jul 12, 2014 - 11:43am PT
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Mark and Ed are right, if your work matters to anyone, it will get looked at closely while others try to replicate and extend. If they can't replicate your work, they will say so! And try to figure out why.
Actually, many of us do that within our research designs as well. In the previous data we found such-and-such, does that still hold for newer and better data, or analytical methods? There's a huge amount of replication built into my projects, which tends to weed out the narrow or non-generalizable results pretty fast. And to make me skeptical about others' work that lacks this.
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Mark Force
Trad climber
Cave Creek, AZ
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Jul 12, 2014 - 04:19pm PT
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TGT, Your link just proves the point that Ed, Chiloe, Bruce, and I have made about the process of scientific research. It has to stand to scrutiny and fakin' it is only going to hold up so long. Thanks for further substantiating the argument.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Jul 12, 2014 - 07:22pm PT
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TGT,
you didn't click the link in my post...
where you would have learned about the story you linked later in Washington Post....
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jul 13, 2014 - 11:04am PT
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scientists never cheat.
Yeah TGT, you're really on to something there:
The publication is the Journal of Vibration and Control (JVC). It publishes papers with names like “Hydraulic engine mounts: a survey” and “Reduction of wheel force variations with magnetorheological devices.”
Look out, those international vibration control experts are really sneaky, scoundrel scientists!
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jul 17, 2014 - 09:39pm PT
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Has anyone noticed the sunspot count went down from near 200, to 25, to 7, and now to zero today? This is the first time since 2010 that it has been spotless. It seems odd it can go from a new high of a double peak to zero in just over a week. This isn't the only metric to.plummet. Anyone have any thoughts on the process in the solar dynamo that causes such a rapid change.
Other noteworthy anomalies are: the arctic sea ice extant seems set to finish the melt season at its highest level in a decade, Antartic sea ice extent is setting new records almost every other day, the much ballyhooed El Nino seems to be fizzling, anomalous cold records are being set almost daily in both hemispheres.
Is global warming a walking corpse propped up by brain dead zombies?
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Mark Force
Trad climber
Cave Creek, AZ
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Jul 17, 2014 - 10:46pm PT
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Rick, do you really believe that or are you just stringing random words together because they sound good?
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jul 17, 2014 - 11:06pm PT
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Are you just whining to hear yourself, or do you have different information Mark. Look at spaceweather.com for current solar activity. Look at the Danish Meteorological Institute for current sea ice extents. Look at the weather reports for new cold records in the the midwest. The El Nino fizzling and the decade high arctic sea ice extent are educated guesses, the rest are facts. Prove me wrong if you can.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jul 17, 2014 - 11:24pm PT
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No -edumacated
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Tricouni
Mountain climber
Vancouver
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Jul 17, 2014 - 11:44pm PT
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the arctic sea ice extant seems set to finish the melt season at its highest level in a decade
Bulltweet.
1). There's still a lot of melt season left, and nobody can reliably predict how it will finish.
2). See http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm for a simple graph (updated daily) of arctic sea ice extent. So far, it looks to be about the 4th lowest on record for this date, and certainly far below the average for the last decade.
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raymond phule
climber
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Jul 17, 2014 - 11:45pm PT
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Other noteworthy anomalies are: the arctic sea ice extant seems set to finish the melt season at its highest level in a decade,
????????
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
How did you draw that conclusion from the data? Ending the melt season in July? Finish the melt season at its highest level in a decade?
It is fascinating how you manage to read graphs and articles in a way so that you think that they agree with your preconceived view.
the decade high arctic sea ice extent are educated guesses
haha, more like an uneducated "I really really want that that to happen" quess.
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BLUEBLOCR
Social climber
joshua tree
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Jul 17, 2014 - 11:54pm PT
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Prove me wrong if you can.
Rick, their not going to prove you wrong. Their gonna come out in about 5 yrs with their new charts screaming "Ice Age!", The government will cry wolf and want us to pay the Sciencefictionalist to study and fix the "problem". HA!
Hey Bruce what happened to your AntiIsrealiDownwithReligionGodisaMythOldSchoolSucksPhilosophyisDeadScienceRulesDude thread?
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raymond phule
climber
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Jul 18, 2014 - 12:06am PT
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How is it possibly to prove Ricks uneducated guesses wrong at this time? We can look at the data in September but before that we only have predictions, guesses and hopes.
Everyone that can read a graph and understand data can see for them self that nothing suggest that ricks guess is going to be correct though.
The interpretation of the arctic sea ice data is a good test of the knowledge and sincerity of the poster.
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BLUEBLOCR
Social climber
joshua tree
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Jul 18, 2014 - 12:17am PT
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^^^Dude the Ice is bigger then ever for this time of year!
Everyday it's setting new records. If it keeps up like this, and we have a real cold winter, i think maybe Australia could freeze!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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raymond phule
climber
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Jul 18, 2014 - 02:12am PT
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^^^Dude the Ice is bigger then ever for this time of year!
Everyday it's setting new records. If it keeps up like this, and we have a real cold winter, i think maybe Australia could freeze!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
haha, I and rick was talking about the arctic ice and it is not larger than ever and you could also look outside of your backyard in regard to the cold winter.
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Mark Force
Trad climber
Cave Creek, AZ
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Jul 18, 2014 - 06:32am PT
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Cherry picking or purposefully using data without or outside of context is not science. Local and relatively brief weather is not climate. I don't doubt the data necessarily; I do doubt the interpretation. It just makes you sound silly when you freewheel with the data.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jul 18, 2014 - 08:07am PT
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Nobody has an answer for the very unusual solar activity? Looks like their are two small spots emerging today, yet all major indices are still way down. How can this be since we're still four or five years away from the expected Schwabe cycle minimum?
Anyway , I stuck my neck out on the block on the above two predictions. What are you contrarians predicting for arctic ice mininum extent? Raymond or Mark?
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jul 18, 2014 - 08:19am PT
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Sure if you keep track. Im in for the highest extent in a decade. Five canucks.
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