OT Just how bad is the drought? Just curious OT

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The Chief

climber
Down the hill & across the Valley from......
Nov 8, 2015 - 08:13pm PT
RJ... "Might"??



More like, "IS". Going North, way way way North. Where just about every household owns a gun or two or three and there's plenty of water. Lots of water.
monolith

climber
state of being
Nov 8, 2015 - 08:27pm PT
Chiefy is not aware that Idaho is also in drought.

http://www.idahostatesman.com/news/local/environment/article40860939.html

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?ID
zBrown

Ice climber
Nov 20, 2015 - 07:25am PT
November 19, 2015

Now, as of Nov. 19, snow-water content in parts of the Sierra Nevada is well over 200 percent above average, even though it is still early in the season.


But that won't mean immediate or dramatic impact on drought conditions. More than 44 percent of the state remains under exceptional drought, the U.S. Drought Monitor's most severe category. The figure remains unchanged from last week's report.




http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/California-Drought-Sierra-Nevada-Snowpack-Water-Snow-346746612.html
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Nov 20, 2015 - 11:00am PT
There is a case to be made that the most important aquifer in the world is the Ogallala Aquifer. It is an alluvial and Aeolian deposit from the eroding Rocky Montains, hundreds of feet thick in some places. It runs from South Dakota to west Texas, and is responsible for much of America's grain, which is so plentiful that farmers are heavily subsidized by the federal government. They are nigh all hardcore right wingers, listening to Rush Limbaugh while in their air conditioned farm machinery. On the other hand, they love that CRP program, that PAYS them NOT to farm certain land, a program going back to the days when soil management was poor. That, and they all seem to have a local restaurant where they gather every morning when crops are growing and little is to be done. Those guys have a lot of free time in some areas. I've been dealing with them for most of my life. They love it when you hit oil or gas beneath their land. You better treat them well, because if you don't, it gets around, and they become harder to deal with. So you can't screw up or be a problem with them.

There are low profile oil pumping units that are low enough to not bother the irrigation line as it goes around. I might have a picture of one. One of the main fuels to run the irrigation pumps is natural gas. The huge Hugoton Gas Field runs from SW Kansas to the Northern Texas Panhandle.

If you ever fly east-west and see those endless circles of center-pivot irrigation east of the Rockies, then you've seen the Ogallala. Remember, 70% of fresh water goes to agriculture. When the aquifer is depleted, which it will be, there will be no more water, and they are out of business, and U.S. grain exports, some of it in humanitarian aid, will suffer. The soil is great in the Great Plains. It is just too dry for corn. You need to irrigate the heck out of corn, but per-acre, it is worth far more than wheat.

The Ogallala is really thick. Hundreds of feet of highly porous gravel which contains zillions of acre feet of the sweetest, cleanest, water anywhere. The problem is that it recharges slowly. So it is basically a non-renewable resource. There are many places where you could originally hit the water table at less than 50 feet. Now, a lot of places have been drawn down to a depth of 250-300 feet in areas like the northern Texas Panhandle and SW Kansas. Farming covers so much land that a weed is rare, much less a tree.

They grow corn in arid areas. Corn needs a lot of water. It transpires heavily, sending water into the atmosphere. Wheat is a more natural crop. It is considered a dry land crop, and needs much less water. The trouble with that is that corn makes a lot more money than wheat does. Whatever the crop, the U.S. helps to feed the world from that deposit of groundwater.

There are attempts to slow the draining of the aquifer, but it is shrinking as a simple matter of arithmetic. It has a way left to go, but the power needed to lift it that much takes a lot of energy. They have huge utility bills.

Anyway, it will be empty before long, and that land will revert to arid grassland, and wheat will be the only crop. I never could understand why the government pays farmers in the east not to grow corn, while at the same time growing it far west of its natural range.

Groundwater is a great resource, but it needs to me managed properly. I've heard that some of the California aquifers are rapidly depleting, and with the drought, more and more are forced into using groundwater.

The whole Keystone Pipeline was fought, in part, as being dangerous to the aquifer. Studies have shown this to be incorrect. Spills are local and quickly found and repaired. The area is already criss-crossed with oil and gas transmission lines. It poses no real damage to the Aquifer.

The only argument with any basis is that the tar sands "oil" is very energy intensive, and gives off way more greenhouse gasses than conventional oil and gas fields. Hell, we drill in those irrigated places like crazy. I have yet to meet a farmer who doesn't yearn for oil to be found on his land if he also owns the minerals, and in those areas, the farmer usually does.

There are a lot of oil rich farmers who farm damn near as a form of recreation. Families who own vast farmland in oil areas are very oil savvy and wealthy.

Here is a picture of a low profile pumping unit. They are low enough that the irrigation arm goes righ over it without a hitch. Those guys demand those in their leases, and even if they don't, it is the only way to pump oil from center pivot areas. I'm drilling in some right now.


The coverage and thickness of the Ogallala Aquifer:

BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Nov 20, 2015 - 11:07am PT
Chief, I assume that you know the history of the Owens Valley. It used to be covered with farms and orchards. Then Los Angeles, in a very cutthroat fashion, bought most of the Owens Valley and its water rights.

Most of that runoff heads down to the Canal at the base of the mountains and heads straight for L.A.

I wish that L.A. would at least give up some surface rights. There is a dearth of private land there, so it is an expensive place to live.

I loved my time living there, though. Joe Faint taught me how to fly fish on my winter days off from cat driving at Mammoth.

Los Angeles knew from the beginning that they had a water problem. So they nigh stole the Owens Valley: the runoff from the east side of the Sierra. Sure, there are little creeks in town and the River is there, but it is beneath a dam. It isn't fully natural anymore, including the invasive Tamarisk, or Salt Cedar, which is not a native plant. It lines creeks and rivers throughout the west. Hell, they are a huge problem in Oklahoma. I can see it in your pictures of the Owens River.
Gary

Social climber
Hell is empty and all the devils are here
Nov 20, 2015 - 01:34pm PT
Base, did LA steal the water? I thought they purchased the water rights.

Nice post on the aquifer.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 20, 2015 - 01:52pm PT
Base - very informative as usual!

One other special interest subsidy for the rural minority:
Subsidized broadband.
Even though they benefit from housing costs approx 1/4 of high cost areas, they apparently need their Netfix and Hulu to be as cheap as a typical high density zone.

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/2015/08/06/usda-shows-government-subsidized-broadband-is-a-bad-investment

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/24/business/court-approves-fcc-plan-to-subsidize-rural-broadband-service.html?_r=0
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 20, 2015 - 02:01pm PT
Base, did LA steal the water? I thought they purchased the water rights.

They stole it fair-and-square.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 20, 2015 - 02:06pm PT
I agree it is pretty dumb to use the Ogallala to irrigate corn while you are paying other farmers not to grow it.

I don't know how profitable it will be to grow wheat. There may be enough rain to grow it in an average year, but, like the Sierra, you don't get average years. Might have made more sense to have the Ogallala available to "top up" the wheat crop in dry years. But with the groundwater already so low, I wouldn't suppose it would be economical to pump the water that's left for wheat.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Nov 20, 2015 - 02:18pm PT
It's "a huge victory for our children and for the climate movement."
—Andrea Rodgers, Western Environmental Law Center

Vindicated: Wash. Court Delivers Win for Youths Demanding Right to Stable Climate
Young petitioners' "very survival depends upon the will of their elders to act now, decisively and unequivocally, to stem the tide of global warming"
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Nov 23, 2015 - 09:21pm PT
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/precipapp/get5SIPrecipStaticIndex.action

I've closely followed the snowpack for decades, and I am surprised by what is happening---which is not much.

Remember that this is the biggest El Nino ever.

However, this is shaping up to be simply an average year.
How can I say that, this early?

If you look at the records of very big snow years, without exception, they start off with huge snow early. We are approaching Thanksgiving, with no huge storms in sight.

I think this is very worrisome for water accumulation in the snowpack.
neebee

Social climber
calif/texas
Nov 24, 2015 - 11:15am PT
hey there say, ken m... i am curious about something??
and i just saw your share on the snow pack...


well, two of the 'affects of el nin~o maps' that i saw showed:

which areas of the states might turn out to be warmer...
(by 50-70%)... (the top third, across the states, mainly,
though part of the upper east coast, was not included, i think?)

and which will be about the same...
(this was middle third, or so, of the state-map)...

and which would be colder..
(by 40%) (these are the guesses) ...
(this being mainly most all of texas, and the
states bordering it, and a few to the upper east)...

well, the interesting thing, was this:
california, was all marked as the--50 percent warmer...

so, IS this WHY the snow packs, are 'doing what you mentioned'
so far, this year...
will this keep it more rain, perhaps, and less snow...

i am just curious...
and, the 'story' seems to be, due to the el nin~o being
more north, on the coast, than being south (as they 'say' it
is not the 'usual')...

i was just trying to understand this all a bit,
as, it seems so far, that WINTER out here, is very mild...

so i am wondering if this is mainly
going to FOLLOW as true...


the snow that just went through here, would have
left up a foot of snow, all over, but it wet-out and just
dusted, drizzled and melted before any accumulated...


*me, though, was glad, as, the LAST two winters,
were BOTH worse than the years before...



thanks, so much ken m... or any of you
folks that understand weather patterns, etc...

this has me thinking on this, too, due to having SO
many friends, in quite a few n, s, e, and western states,
all getting 'different' stuff than usual 'predicted'...

TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Nov 24, 2015 - 01:37pm PT
Court Delivers Win for Youths Demanding Right to Stable Climate

So what are they going to do? serve the sun with a subpoena and demand that it quit varying its output?


monolith

climber
state of being
Nov 24, 2015 - 01:48pm PT
Not really, TGT.



The Chief

climber
Down the hill & across the Valley from......
Nov 24, 2015 - 01:55pm PT
Demanding the Right to a Stable Climate

Priceless.


STOP, evolution..... STOP I tell you. Or we will sue and stick Obama's EPA on your Azz!!!!
mouse from merced

Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
Nov 24, 2015 - 02:46pm PT
the sky is pierced
and leaking rain
still we need more
again! again!

come make me wet
ye darkened skies
bring rainy tears
to my old eyes

i hear every mother say
wish it would rain today all day
what a drag it is being dry
TomCochrane

Trad climber
Santa Cruz Mountains and Monterey Bay
Nov 26, 2015 - 10:18pm PT
North Siberian Arctic Permafrost Methane Eruption Vents
Mantle Methane Leakage via Late Permian Deep Penetrating Fault and Shear Fracture Systems Rejuvenated by Carbon Dioxide and Methane Induced Global Warming

By Malcolm P.R. Light, Harold H. Hensel and Sam Carana

Abstract

In North Siberia some 30 permafrost methane eruption vents occur along the trend of the inner (continental side) third of the Late Permian Taimyr Volcanic Arc where the crust and mantle were the weakest and the most fractured. Deep penetrating faults and shear systems allowed molten basaltic magmas charged with large volumes of carbon dioxide and methane free access to the surface where they formed giant pyroclastic eruptions. The large volume of carbon dioxide and methane added to the atmosphere by this Late Permian volcanic activity led to a massive atmospheric temperature pulse that caused a major worldwide extinction event (Wignall, 2009). These deep penetrating fractures form a major migration conduit system for the presently erupting methane vents in the North Siberian permafrost and the submarine Enrico PV Anomaly. During periods of lower atmospheric carbon dioxide and lower temperatures, the permafrost methane vents became sealed by the formation of methane hydrate (clathrate) plugs forming pingos. The surface methane clathrate plugs are now being destabilized by human pollution induced global warming and the mantle methane released into the atmosphere at the permafrost methane explosion vents. This has opened a giant, long standing (Permian to Recent) geopressured, mantle methane pressure-release safety valve. There is now no fast way to reseal this system because it will require extremely quick cooling of the atmosphere and the Arctic Ocean. The situation calls for comprehensive and effective action, including breaking down the methane in the water before it gets into the atmosphere using methane devouring symbiotic bacteria (Glass et al. 2013) and simultaneously breaking down the existing atmospheric methane using radio-laser systems which can also form methane consuming hydroxyl molecules (Alamo and Lucy Projects, Light and Carana, 2012, 2013).

Conclusions

Our present extreme fossil fuel driven, carbon dioxide global warming is predicted to produce exactly the same mantle methane release from the permafrost methane eruption vents along the Late Permian "TaimyrVolcanic Arc", subsea Arctic methane hydrates and the Enrico Pv Anomaly "Extreme Methane Emission Zone" by the 2050's, leading to total deglaciation and the extinction of all life on Earth.

Mankind has, in his infinite stupidity, with his extreme hydrocarbon addiction and fossil fuel induced global warming, opened a giant, long standing (Permian to Recent), geopressured, mantle methane pressure-release safety valve for methane gas generated between 100 km and 300 km depth and at temperatures of above 1200°C in the asthenosphere (Figures 1 to 6). This is now a region of massive methane emissions (Carana, 2011-2015).

There seems to be no fast and easy way to reseal this system. To sufficiently cool the Atmosphere and Arctic Ocean cannot be achieved in the short time frame we have left to complete the job. In some cases, it may be possible to reseal conduits with concrete or other material, or to capture methane for storage in hydrates at safer locations, but the sheer number of vulnerable locations and the size of the work involved is daunting.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/04/north-siberian-arctic-permafrost-methane-eruption-vents.html
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Nov 27, 2015 - 11:33am PT
neebee,

As I understand it, what is predicted is that in ca, the total amount of precipitation will be about the same, but it will be more rain, and less snow. It would seem that an elevated temperature would account for that.
neebee

Social climber
calif/texas
Nov 27, 2015 - 08:57pm PT
hey there say, ken m... say, thanks...

that might be similar, but not exactly the same for us...

similar, as there seems, so far, to be more rain and less snow, too...

but different, in that we are still cold,
here, but, so far about 8-10 degrees warmers, but we will still
be in the 30's soon... *might not be in the low 20's though,
but will find out, by january...


thanks for helping me out, :)
still was wondering about it...
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 9, 2015 - 11:50pm PT
Hotter means less snowpack.
http://climatenewsnetwork.net/global-warming-drains-the-water-of-life/

Same situation in Oregon.
http://registerguard.com/rg/news/local/33821333-75/story.csp

NASA temperature projections for USA to 2100
2 scenarios. Hot and Hotter. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39cBqY1sszY

Total precipitation change is clear only for certain areas.
Using 670 ppm scenario https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-nI8MByIL8

more scenarios http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=11376

Economic costs
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/planetpolicy/posts/2015/12/09-global-economic-costs-from-climate-change-worse

BS from Repub congress
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/27102015/noaa-house-science-committee-subpoena-global-warming-hiatus-lamar-smith

Denier "scientists" paid to write phony articles.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/11/23/why-are-so-many-americans-skeptical-about-climate-change-a-study-offers-a-surprising-answer/

http://insideclimatenews.org/news/12112015/michael-mann-climate-change-scientist-interview-exxon-mobil-investigation-global-warming

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/08/greenpeace-exposes-sceptics-cast-doubt-climate-science

Fossil fuel subsidies http://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-energy-environment-idUSKBN0TM2LM20151203#rUhKizJZyY8EZY0C.97

No Hiatus
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/24112015/no-global-warming-hiatus-review-concludes-climate-change-lamar-smith-noaa
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