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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jun 27, 2014 - 08:45am PT
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Damn, pipped to the post by Randisi. Aren't there laws against electron abuse?
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Jun 27, 2014 - 08:53am PT
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Record heat: Month of May is hottest on Earth
Seems to me that this is an ambiguous headline and could be reasonably construed to mean that the most recent May was either the hottest May ever or the hottest month ever. This isn't that big a deal--many sentences are ambiguous to some degree. And it often is a matter of degree--some sentences have meanings that are clear to anyone who is trying to really figure out what the author intended, but perhaps can be twisted by someone who has a different agenda. Remember America's richest ex-President, good ol' Slick Willie, and what "the meaning of the word 'is' is."
Anyway, consider a parallel sentence such as "Gulf of Mexico is deepest on Earth." That doesn't seem ambiguous (at least in the same way the "Month of May" is), because there is only one Gulf of Mexico. It means that of all the gulfs in the world, that particular gulf is the deepest. That seems to support Sketch's interpretation that the actual headline means that the most recent May was the hottest month ever, not just the hottest May ever.
But "Month of May" is a little different because the most recent May could reasonably be considered to be part of a series of all months or a series of all Mays. In fact it is both, and I don't think the headline gives enough information to tell the reader which series is the "right" one. Hence the ambiguity.
As an aside, I'm not sure why a disagreement about the possible ambiguity of a news headline generates the personal vitriol. You can agree or disagree with anything I've written above and I may agree or disagree with anyone else's views on that, but it seems like a very strange thing to get nasty about!
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jun 27, 2014 - 09:15am PT
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Why do you people waste your time with this?
Has anyone's mind been changed?
Insane.
But Randisi, you've posted that complaint over and over again. Has anyone's mind been changed?
IFO actually do learn things in connection with this thread, because it pushes me to try things out or look things up when I don't know them. For example, the month-by-month temperature plots I drew upthread were a new thing (for me); in another post I went and looked up what the state of the art might be concerning early 20th-century warming. So that has value.
Also, it's a recreational diversion. Right now on another forum I'm in a discussion about quantile regression vs. OLS, the breakdown point of median vs. mean, what skewness/kurtosis tests tell us as sample size gets larger, and other stuff all applied to sea ice prediction. Or my big project for the day is reading 3 chapters of dissertation draft. The way my mind works, each job becomes clearer in rotation instead of focusing until I'm bleary-eyed on just one.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jun 27, 2014 - 09:45am PT
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Chiloe, you give them a forum to air their "ideas", and give them legitimacy by responding to them and taking them seriously.
Don't debate such people. It only makes them stronger and makes you look idiotic.
The world contains thousands of such forums, I don't think we add much to the noise here. Ideologues and neurotics won't be persuaded by anything, they need to vent their anger and beliefs, but other people with less commitment who read unopposed nonsense could start to think it has the last word. I think it's worth trying to counter that impression by talking sense, even though you won't convert any believers. It ain't much but given this world it might be all we can do.
As for me looking idiotic, that would be in the eye of the beholder. I do my best to avoid actually being an idiot though.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jun 27, 2014 - 01:20pm PT
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Chiloes graphs depicting the properance of recent warm records at the expense of using readjusted past climatic data aside, the world is in the grip of a slowly strengthening cooling trend..The major questions are: will the PDO, which is in negative phase and causing major atmospheric circulation changes , drown out the effects of the El Nino we are already in the early phases of and is forecast now to be moderate to weak, will delayed effects of the deep prolonged low of solar cycle 23/24 begin to manifest themselves, will the major indices of solar activity now begin their steep dive to the bottom of a prolonged trough of cycle 24/25 ( after its recent double peak) and will the much trivialized effects, particularly TSI, have to be reevaluated, and finally with global ice and cloud cover on the rise will the already slightly muted solar effects be magnified by albedo change? How cool, or how hot if you are a denialist CAGWer, will it get in the coming five years? We don't have time for your unproductive personal confrontations, we're facing a catastrophe of biblical proportions fir christ sakes-or are we?
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Jun 27, 2014 - 02:35pm PT
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"denialist CAGWer"
Wow.....You should really listen to Chiloe.
"You should do your best to actually Avoid Being an "
Edit: Good post up there Chiloe ,I totally agree.
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TGT
Social climber
So Cal
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Jun 27, 2014 - 05:44pm PT
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The new NASA Terra satellite data are consistent with long-term NOAA and NASA data indicating atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds are not increasing in the manner predicted by alarmist computer models. The Terra satellite data also support data collected by NASA’s ERBS satellite showing far more longwave radiation (and thus, heat) escaped into space between 1985 and 1999 than alarmist computer models had predicted. Together, the NASA ERBS and Terra satellite data show that for 25 years and counting, carbon dioxide emissions have directly and indirectly trapped far less heat than alarmist computer models have predicted.
In short, the central premise of alarmist global warming theory is that carbon dioxide emissions should be directly and indirectly trapping a certain amount of heat in the earth’s atmosphere and preventing it from escaping into space. Real-world measurements, however, show far less heat is being trapped in the earth’s atmosphere than the alarmist computer models predict, and far more heat is escaping into space than the alarmist computer models predict.
When objective NASA satellite data, reported in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, show a “huge discrepancy” between alarmist climate models and real-world facts,
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2011/07/27/new-nasa-data-blow-gaping-hold-in-global-warming-alarmism/
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Spitzer
climber
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Jun 27, 2014 - 05:48pm PT
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As for me looking idiotic, that would be in the eye of the beholder. I do my best to avoid actually being an idiot though.
You rock, Chiloe.
Keep fighting the good fight.
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HighTraverse
Trad climber
Bay Area
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Jun 27, 2014 - 06:27pm PT
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You have to fight back against these provocateurs.
What else can we do? Ignore them, it will drive them crazy. And that won't take much.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jun 27, 2014 - 07:42pm PT
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Aargh, matey. Drain another bottle of rum and have at it.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jun 27, 2014 - 08:59pm PT
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Fingers hah? So presumably when the count runs past the hands you run into toes of malt. Look buddy, an alchy is an alchy no matter how you slice it and nothing is worse than a drunk with a loud mouth.
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HighTraverse
Trad climber
Bay Area
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Jun 28, 2014 - 10:55am PT
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It is a moral question Indeed it is a moral question.
Posed something like:
"When your personal behavioral choices will affect the lives of future generations how do you make those choices?"
By what criteria do you make those choices? What cost are you willing to incur to yourself? What personal and governmental responsibility do you embrace to minimize the damage to future generations?
What economic and environmental cost do you want to defer today and pass down to everyone's descendants?
Are you willing to take personal moral leadership with those choices?
Your actions have economic, moral and political effects.
Global warming and resulting climate change is the cumulative effect of 6 billion individuals making daily choices. It will affect many times that number of future humans and other species of flora and fauna.
This is precisely where the Ayn Rand laissez faire philosophy breaks down. It only concerns itself with immediate individual gain.
Unfortunately, we are all strongly motivated by cost of living. Which is why a carbon tax (governmental choice) makes sense. The long term benefit to the global community is increased when our economic self interest (ironically Ayn Rand to the rescue) is to produce fewer carbon emissions.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Jun 30, 2014 - 07:21am PT
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It is a failure of imagination, not at a policy level but at the level of civilization.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Jun 30, 2014 - 07:38am PT
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for sketch
It is a failure of imagination, not at a policy level but at the level of civilization.
nice. didn't know your harley was in the shop.
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TGT
Social climber
So Cal
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Jun 30, 2014 - 08:07pm PT
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Two years ago during the scorching summer of 2012, July 1936 lost its place on the leaderboard and July 2012 became the hottest month on record in the United States,” Watts wrote. “Now, as if by magic, and according to NOAA’s own data, July 1936 is now the hottest month on record again. The past, present, and future all seems to be ‘adjustable’ in NOAA’s world.”
http://dailycaller.com/2014/06/30/noaa-quietly-reinstates-july-1936-as-the-hottest-month-on-record/
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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well spoken Sketch... maybe you and TGT should start a fossil fuel energy company based on your religious beliefs and refuse to subject yourself to USG regulation of GHG emission...
sounds like a winner to me.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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from the NYTimes Science section this morning:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/01/science/a-solar-show-with-mixed-reviews.html
Solar maximum is now.
Indeed, the maximum — the peak of the 11-year sunspot cycle, when the sun erupts with solar flares and energetic bursts of electrons and protons — may have already passed.
As solar maximums go, this has been a tepid one, particularly when measured against some predictions that it would be ferocious; it has been called a “minimax.”
But neither does it rival a quiet period in the second half of the 1600s that coincided with the onset of the Little Ice Age, a prolonged chill in Europe.
“This cycle is not abnormally small,” said W. Dean Pesnell, the project scientist for NASA’s orbiting Solar Dynamics Observatory. Of the 24 solar cycles since the mid-1750s when people began keeping detailed counts of sunspots, “it looks like fifth smallest,” he continued. “It might be the fourth. It might be the sixth. It’s not going to be at the bottom.”
maybe rick's sun religion is shown to be what it truly is... hey, he might get in on the TGT-Sketch corporation..
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dave729
Trad climber
Western America
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German Geologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning: UN IPCC Models A Failure, ‘Have No
Chance Of Success’…Sees Possible 0.2°C Of Cooling By 2020 -
Scientists and Studies predict ‘imminent global COOLING’ ahead – Drop in
global temps ‘almost a slam dunk’
Growing number of scientists are predicting global cooling: Russia’s
Pulkovo Observatory: ‘We could be in for a cooling period that lasts
200-250 years’
Danish Solar Scientist Svensmark declares ‘global warming has stopped and
a cooling is beginning…enjoy global warming while it lasts’
New paper by Russian solar physicist by Habibullo Abdussamatov predicts
another Little Ice Age within the next 30 years. (Ice climbers rejoice!)
Meteorologist Joe Bastardi on declining global temps: ‘Has the Obama
administration, the EPA or anyone that can read a chart actually looked
at what global temperatures are now doing?’
Climate Scientist Prof. Anastasios Tsonis at the University of Wisconsin–
Milwaukee, Predicts: ‘I would assume something like another 15 years of
leveling off or cooling’
Prominent geologist Dr. Don Easterbrook warns ‘global COOLING is almost a
slam dunk’ for up to 30 years or more
Australian Astronomical Society warns of global COOLING as Sun’s activity
‘significantly diminishes’
read about it all here:
http://www.climatedepot.com/2014/06/29/scientists-and-studies-predict-imminent-global-cooling-ahead-drop-in-global-temps-almost-a-slam-dunk/
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raymond phule
climber
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When is this global cooling supposed to start? The warmest may on record seems to be a quite bad start for a cooling trend...
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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For some reason I got a free issue of Nature in the mail today. It has one paper on climate science, by Alberto Reyes (U Wisconsin) and coauthors:
South Greenland ice-sheet collapse during Marine Isotope Stage 11.
As their title suggests, the researchers found that south Greenland's ice sheet collapsed almost completely, yielding 4.5 to 6 meters of sea level equivalent, about 400,000 years ago -- at temperatures perhaps not much higher than today. Below is the abstract.
Varying levels of boreal summer insolation and associated Earth system feedbacks led to differing climate and ice-sheet states during late-Quaternary interglaciations. In particular, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 was an exceptionally long interglaciation and potentially had a global mean sea level 6 to 13 metres above the present level around 410,000 to 400,000 years ago1, 2, implying substantial mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet (GIS). There are, however, no model simulations and only limited proxy data3, 4 to constrain the magnitude of the GIS response to climate change during this ‘super interglacial’5, thus confounding efforts to assess climate/ice-sheet threshold behaviour6, 7 and associated sea-level rise1, 2. Here we show that the south GIS was drastically smaller during MIS 11 than it is now, with only a small residual ice dome over southernmost Greenland. We use the strontium–neodymium–lead isotopic composition of proglacial sediment discharged from south Greenland to constrain the provenance of terrigenous silt deposited on the Eirik Drift, a sedimentary deposit off the south Greenland margin. We identify a major reduction in sediment input derived from south Greenland’s Precambrian bedrock terranes, probably reflecting the cessation of subglacial erosion and sediment transport8 as a result of near-complete deglaciation of south Greenland. Comparison with ice-sheet configurations from numerical models7, 9, 10, 11, 12 suggests that the GIS lost about 4.5 to 6 metres of sea-level-equivalent volume during MIS 11. This is evidence for late-Quaternary GIS collapse after it crossed a climate/ice-sheet stability threshold that may have been no more than several degrees above pre-industrial temperatures6, 7.
From the paper itself (emphasis mine):
Anomalous MIS11 Arctic warmth5 and a seasonally ice-free ocean30 could have pushed the GIS past an ice-stability threshold6,7 that was not crossed during the LIG or early Holocene. Alternatively, protracted warmth during the long MIS 11 interglaciation may have allowed the GIS to respond fully to interglacial conditions that were similar to the early Holocene and LIG [last interglacial], with these later interglaciations being too short for comparable ice-sheet collapse. A more extensive network of Pleistocene climate and ice-extent records around Greenland is required to assess these alternative scenarios, which have important implications for predicting the long-term behaviour of the GIS in response to future climate change scenarios6,7. In this context, our evidence for a late-Quaternary collapse of the south GIS provides an important example of geologically recent ice-sheet instability and retreat under climate conditions within the range of those anticipated by the end of this century.
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