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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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The solar constant value of variation is in dispute as we only have several hundred years of data, and any data prior to the twentieth century was derived from crude instrumentation . Furthermore ,the jury is out on effects for the much more variable UV spectrums, variable solar magngetism and unquantified effects, and cosmic ray variation with still undecided cloud seeding capacity which impacts the amount of SW radiation reaching the surface. In short, as much is still not known as is known about solar impacts on Earth"s climate. This lack of acknowledgement is one of the big lies in CAGW science. EDIT: Inventioneer, great posts keep up the pressure against this fraud.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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The solar constant value of variation is in dispute as we only have several hundred years of data, and any data prior to the twentieth century was derived from crude instrumentation .
how much variation?
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jun 5, 2014 - 06:06pm PT
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Whew.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Actually, yes, 31,000+ scientists from all the disciplines that comprise the non-linear complex study of climate dynamics (9,000+ of whom have PhDs) have been polled as to what they think about whether or not AGW is a settled matter, and those 31,000+ scientists were unanimous in that they say it is NOT a settled matter at all.
Inventioneer's garbled talking point here refers not to any poll but the "Oregon petition."
The Global Warming Petition Project, also known as the Oregon Petition, is a petition urging the United States government to reject the global warming Kyoto Protocol of 1997 and similar policies.[1] It was organized and circulated by Arthur B. Robinson, president of the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine in 1998, and again in 2007.[2][3] Past National Academy of Sciences president Frederick Seitz wrote a cover letter endorsing the petition.[4]
According to Robinson, the petition has over 31,000 signatories. Over 9,000 report to have a Ph.D.,[1][2][3] mostly in engineering.[5] The NIPCC (2009) Report lists 31,478 degreed signatories, including 9,029 with Ph.D.s.[6] The list has been criticized for its lack of verification, with pranksters successfully submitting Charles Darwin, members of the Spice Girls and characters from Star Wars, and getting them briefly included on the list.[7] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_Petition
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Tol's paper, barely published, has fallen apart like wet tissue paper as people with more quantitative skills (and/or knowledge of the Cook study) look at what assumptions his model makes in order to get the results Tol says he wanted -- "destruction" of the Cook paper, even while conceding its main point.
The Cook paper has stood up to all this criticism quite well, while Tol's effort (rejected 4 times by 3 journals before he found one that would publish it) fell apart in about its first day.
Sketch, if you can articulate any thoughts of your own -- do you disagree? Think that Tol's model is right? Tell us why, I could sure tell you how I know that it's not.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Richard Toll's flawed re-analysis magically creates 303 papers that reject AGW. Yet still comes up with 91%
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jun 6, 2014 - 09:09am PT
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Hasn't the Oregon Petition already been covered, in detail, in past posts here?
Around and around we go...
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Yep. They could only get about .3% of those with degrees in science, engineering, medicine, etc, to sign.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Yes. It's been my opinion, since the Cook study was released, that the researchers played fast and loose with their data. That the 97% claim was cooked up propaganda.
Well, that's false, the data are publicly available and no one has seriously challenged them -- though they've tried very very hard. You could try too, it's not difficult to randomly sample abstracts and rate them yourself. The reason that no denialists have managed this simple test is not that it's too hard, but that it will come to the same conclusion unless you cheat. There just aren't many serious papers in the scientific literature that reject anthropogenic climate change.
The high-90s figure has been replicated at least 3 times by other authors, in other studies, using much different methods (or since they came earlier, you might say that Cook et al. replicated them, on a larger scale). It's even replicated two completely different ways (abstract ratings, and self-ratings by authors) in the Cook study itself.
Apart from all these studies, the conclusion certainly fits the landscape anyone sees if they actually read journals or go to science meetings. That's why even Tol declares their conclusion is basically right, even while finding a way to assume it down from 97 to 91 (by inventing from thin air almost 300 papers that even he can't find).
But it wasn't what I asked. You posted about Tol's critique, I'm asking if you understand it and agree.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Seems like they've done their best to avoid releasing their findings You're channeling the denier blogs again, Sketch. That's pretty much all you've got?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Climatologist James Annan, at meetings of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project, offers this nice visualization with his musings:
One problem with the idea of using the multi-model ensemble to improve our predictions of the future may be summarised by a recent visit to Chester zoo.
The problems arise if this is the multi-model ensemble,
while this is reality:
Our work to date indicates that reality is much more like another meerkat than it is like a rhinoceros, but it is possible that the rhino may yet rear its ugly head and cause difficulties.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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I'm just trying to figure out the meaning of the Tol ( or other ) criticism of Cook. It appears that it is a matter of interpretation and that Tol "weights" his interpretation away from an explicit endorsement, into the neutral category.
No, what you have here is a disagreement between (1) the team that actually read the abstracts and rated them, then published all their results, and (2) somebody who has apparently never tried to read the abstracts or rate them, but instead built a statistical model with assumptions about what he thinks the errors in the ratings might have been, and draws his conclusions from that.
There are many errors in both Tol's assumptions and his model. Cook et al. count 24 mistakes already, and others keep finding more, I think it's up to 30 by now. One obvious problem is that Tol's 300 new denial papers don't exist, they are created by his model. Another is that if you apply his model to the actual data, it produces impossible results (percentages either negative or well above 100). A third is that his most basic model assumption is provably false by comparison with the actual ratings.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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The consensus would drop from %97 to %91. But Tol is full of sh#t, in any case.
Here's a test of Tol's claim that's simple enough for anyone to replicate. It's damning that Tol himself did not try.
Follow the Cook sampling and classification strategy (which Tol's paper concedes, en route to his 91%) and do your own rating, with a random sample of abstracts. Calculate your own percentage! Is it closer to 91 or 97? If you randomly selected 50 abstracts, your percentages should have confidence intervals less than +/-14 percentage points.
Sample 100 abstracts, should be +/-10 points.
Sample 400 abstracts, should be +/-5 points.
and so forth.
Even if you just sampled 10, you might start to see the problem with Tol.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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A hilarious and fanciful interpretation. Thanks for the laugh, Sketch.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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You mean those numbers? +/-100/sqrt(n) is a simple approximation. For large samples a more precise number is +/- 1.96*sqrt(((p*(100-p))/n); for small samples a binomial c.i. would be better. And I wrote that without looking it up.
Extra credit: work out how the second equation simplifies (approximately) to the first.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Continuing to catch up on my reading ... this from Eos 27 May. The "rigorous examination" seems to focus mainly on just when this new era started. With agriculture? With the A-bomb? Geologists aren't used to defining period boundaries to a specific year.
Formal declaration of the Anthropocene requires rigorous examination, Scientists Say
Human influence on Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, land, and biology has grown to the extent that some people now think that the planet may have entered a new geological period, known as the Anthropocene.
Scientists at a news briefing about the Anthropocene held at the European Geoscience Union’s General Assembly on 29 April discussed human impacts on Earth and questioned whether those impacts are significant and clear enough to formally declare a new geological time period.
Jan Zalasiewicz, one of the scientists at the briefing, explained that the term Anthropocene refers to a hypothesis that people have changed Earth’s surface systems sufficiently to affect the geology on a scale comparable with some geologic epochs or periods in the past.
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Brown, professor of physical geography at the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom, said the question of whether to formalize the Anthropocene does matter. He said that although there may be some differences of opinion in terms of setting a boundary and how sharply defined an Anthropocene boundary needs to be, “we live in a geologically and atmospherically and biologically transformed globe.” He noted, for example, that humans now move around more sediment on Earth’s surface than natural processes do.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Also from Eos 27 May:
Warm river waters contributed to melting Arctic ice
The authors found that by 5 July the surface temperature in an open water area [in the Beaufort Sea] had increased by 6.5°C and the extent of open water occupied by warm waters had increased by 50%. They conclude that the Mackenzie and other large rivers bring a substantial amount of heat into the Arctic Ocean, which contributes to melting sea ice. In a stark contrast, there is no such large river in the Antarctic, where sea ice has little change.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Sketch writes:
Chiloe - you think it's possible for you to respond to me without being a condescending assh0le?
Just wondering.
you're being defensive because you actually do not know how to do the elementary statistics? and since Chiloe has written text books on the subject you feel his superior knowledge is "condescending"?
That's an interesting take.
Sketch, would you acknowledge that Chiloe knows more about this than you (or most others)?
Just wondering.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Chiloe wrote textbooks on what? Statistics, climatology, social impacts of climate change, or what? I can see ,under some scenarios ,where he would be highly invested in seeing that the base science of his textbooks not be undermined.
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