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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - May 29, 2014 - 08:35pm PT
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So on one hand we hear that MSM ignores climate change and on the other we hear that they over-sensationalize it to excite the public.
Can't they make up their mind, what is wrong with them? Who pays those guys anyway, and why don't they do their job right??
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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May 29, 2014 - 11:31pm PT
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" It was 85 degrees where I live on Monday. Tuesday it plummeted to 40 degrees. Global cooling by 45 degrees F in one day! Where do you suppose all that heat went?" REALLY professor Larry? Who the hell do you think your dealing with, do you suppose your opposition here to be those same pimply faced undergrads you so easily influence? Get a grip, this isn't your classroom.
As for your stupid example/question; it does open up an opportune series of avenues of discussion. By your example you expose the diurnal changes in temps brought forth by day when the heat engine, old Sol, is out pouring down SW radiation as compared to the night absent the engine, and with the still meager insulating effect of 400 ppm of CO2, when the energy radiates outward through the atmosphere into space. You also indicate atmospheric circulations due to alternating areas of high and low air pressure, influence of oceanic currents, and of course coriolis effects. My guess, without looking at your local weather, is that you had a sunny day Monday followed by a clear and low humidity night. This probably lead into a cold front moving in Tuesday with the cloud top albedo reflecting a good portion of the solar SW. Presto your local patch of "global cooling", eh professor?
Anyway, i'm glad you acknowledge the fallacy of "global warming", which never has been homogenous or global. What we are talking about here is the abstraction of an average of global temperatures. The majority of the scientific literature acknowledges the Younger Dryas as a severe, rapid, return of global average temperatures to levels of the just exited glacial epoch. As for what happened to the atmospheric heat I would imagine the primary global heat sink (upper oceanic levels) was suddenly infused with massive amounts of cold fresh water from ice damn breaks holding back mega sized glacial lakes in the NH. The sudden salinity and surface temperature change slowed or shutdown the oceanic current in the north atlantic resulting in massive atmospheric changes that initiated lower trophospheric cloud increases which greatly affected the SW radiation reaching the surface. You take this sort of disturbance and combine it with the just exited point of the Milankovitch Cycle favoring glacial conditions and you get a profound climatic effect that buries the LW radiation insulating "greenhouse effect" of the then increased atmospheric water vapor, or for that matter our current slight increase of CO2.
FlipFlop- i'm doing a residential well and just high pressure water (no chemicals or abrasives) will be used by the hydrofracker.
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dave729
Trad climber
Western America
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The planet's been cooling for the last 17 years and that makes a denier
of Bruce and Barack and his EPA: which is going to double your electricity
cost for no reason other to line their pockets. Think VA cheats are bad.
Just wait.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Considering the severe winter over large parts of North America, the ongoing switch of NG for coal in power generation and fleet fuels, and tomorrows announcement of tough new CO2 regulations; it would seem rising NG futures is a no brainer. Could this be a prolonged upwards trend?
EDIT: Nah Kelly-I don't watch anything contrary to my ignorant beliefs. Anyway, what you define as climate change (a trend over at least a 30 year period) has it's roots in changes in weather patterns, often quite suddenly like what happened with the Younger Dryas, or more recently as in the phase change of the PDO in 76/77 or 1999/2000, both of which ushered in large temp change in the N.E. pacific and affecting the global average.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jun 1, 2014 - 11:05am PT
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Considering the severe winter over large parts of North America, ...
Rick, looks like you missed the nice video about weather vs. climate. Should we post it again so you can view it?
Here, it's a pretty easy watch:
[Click to View YouTube Video]
EDIT: Rick, sorry. I reread your post and realized that your comment about severe weather confused me as to your point about NG futures.
The severe weather last year doesn't have much to do with whether or not coal is a viable fuel for generating electricity. Sure, the severe weather is an outcome of a warming planet, but the real question you ask shouldn't be confused by adding a preamble about a hard winter.
In other words, your statement would be better understood if you left our the part about the weather.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Eight tenths of a degree C in 150 years coming out of the LIA is hardly a spike. Temps plummeted nearly an order of magnitude higher than this measly .8c in decades at the onset of the younger Dryas 12, 800 years ago.
where is the error in the statement about the younger Dryas? Chiloe-other than some slightly twisted semantics , a grammatical error and lack of puntuation, I see nothing wrong with my statement. It is merely an average of regional temperature drops over the average time frame attributed to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Perhaps it is just inconsistent with your CAGW oriented understanding of climate.
In three tries Rick found no ability to think out or look up his mistake, so I gave it away,
It was 85 degrees where I live on Monday. Tuesday it plummeted to 40 degrees. Global cooling by 45 degrees F in one day! Where do you suppose all that heat went?
But Rick couldn’t grasp that either, he lost it turning bright red and banging on the table.
REALLY professor Larry? Who the hell do you think your dealing with, do you suppose your opposition here to be those same pimply faced undergrads you so easily influence? Get a grip, this isn't your classroom.
So I’ll spell it out slowly. My 85 degrees comment was stupid, right? It made the same mistakes as Rick. When the temperature plummeted from 85 degrees to 40 in one day where I live, that was not global cooling. The globe really can’t cool that fast; the heat went somewhere else, on the wind, it was a circulation event.
When central Greenland temperature plummet by about 6 degrees C in a few decades during the Younger Dryas onset, that was not global cooling either. The Younger Dryas onset, like cool temperatures at my house, was a circulation event, not 6 degrees of global heat loss in decades. Its mechanism likely involved reorganization of ocean circulation (meltwater-driven shutdown of the North Atlantic Current) so that warm surface water from low latitudes stopped flowing north to warm the high latitudes.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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So yes, central Greenland (like my house) experienced an abrupt cooling event in a matter of decades (hours). In both cases these were not changes in global temperature, but changes in the distribution of temperature. The heat was somewhere else. The Antarctic, for instance, was gradually warming through the Younger Dryas cooling event. There was some global mean cooling with the Younger Dryas but it was not so abrupt as the northern Atlantic shutdown, and amounted to about 0.6C, or one-tenth of Rick’s claim.
The magnitude of the Younger Dryas climate anomaly (cooler/drier) increases with latitude in the Northern Hemisphere, with an opposite pattern (warmer/wetter) in the Southern Hemisphere reflecting a general bipolar seesaw climate response. Global mean temperature decreased by ~0.6 C during the Younger Dryas. Therefore, our analysis supports the paradigm that while the Younger Dryas was a period of global climate change, it was not a major global cooling event but rather a manifestation of the bipolar seesaw driven by a reduction in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength. http://www.geology.wisc.edu/~acarlson/Other/Shakun_Carlson_QSR_2010.pdf
The relevance of all this to modern anthropogenic change is a whole 'nother topic, one I suspect we've visited multiple times this thread. There's been some concern among scientists that enhanced hydrological cycling and melting glaciers/ice sheets could freshen N Atlantic surface waters to a point that, again, weakened thermohaline circulation thus cooling the northern Atlantic (while keeping more heat in the tropics). Presently, the modelers seem to agree that's unlikely to happen soon.
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guyman
Social climber
Moorpark, CA.
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Bruce and Barack and his EPA: which is going to double your electricity cost for no reason other to line their pockets.
BINGO....
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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You have mastered the catastrophist narrative of underestimation of past climatic changes to accentuate the inflated reports of the recent bout of global average warming, professor Chiloe. True ,the younger dryas cooling was most profound in high latitude NH, but your quote of -6c is significantly lower than the common estimate of -15c for central greenland. There were also large advances in SH mountain glaciation as well as modest gains in near equatorial glaciers. Your narrative minimizes tha global average temp drops estimated in numerous other studies. Besides this you cherry picked the parts of my statement to respond to, leaving out parts that already adressed your answer. All in all typical warmist rhetoric.EDIT: yes correct "global average", which means some parts are colder, some parts warmer but the average decidedly cooler. Probably from a combination of the still large areas of continental glaciation and increased clouds reflectivity-all totalling less radiation penetrating and warming the surface of the oceans and land. Im on a cell.phone at my vacation home presently, maybe if I get time I'll look for the supporting studies this evening.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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You have mastered the catastrophist narrative of underestimation of past climatic changes to accentuate the inflated reports of the recent bout of global average warming, professor Chiloe.
No, you totally made that up. What I do is read the actual studies.
And here's what you wrote about those studies, Rick. It is false.
The majority of the scientific literature acknowledges the Younger Dryas as a severe, rapid, return of global average temperatures to levels of the just exited glacial epoch.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jun 3, 2014 - 06:51am PT
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Hey The "My kids are PhDs!" Chief, sharp as the leading edge of a bowling ball.
How's the GRE study sessions going there, The Chief?
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jun 3, 2014 - 06:58am PT
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Turns out, a bunch of it was simply bad science.
Turns our you didn't read the link on polar bears.
Where do you get that it was "bad science"? More OpEds, no doubt.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jun 3, 2014 - 07:01am PT
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Why so much hate, The Chief?
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jun 3, 2014 - 07:06am PT
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The Chief
Jun 3, 2014 - 06:44am PT
KaveMAN, you can be the first and take the lead in diminishing the human consumption and proliferation impact and cause of the impending extintion doom on this planet... hold your breath.
No The Chief. Not a mirror. This is your hateful post.
Why so much hate??
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jun 3, 2014 - 07:11am PT
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Sketch, I read your quote a couple times to be sure. It doesn't confirm nor deny levels of polar bear populations.
If you read the article I posted, it says there were fewer cubs this year. It's very cautious about extrapolating out any conclusions, but if you read between the lines, you can tell where it's heading.
For example,
Winter ice cover in the Arctic fell to its fifth lowest extent on record in 2014. This continues a long-term trend of decline which is occurring more rapidly than scientists expected and the ice cap could vanish in summer within decades.
Combine this with an earlier portion of the article, and you can piece together the picture:
But global warming is rapidly reducing the extent of sea ice on which the bears hunt seals, their main food.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jun 3, 2014 - 07:16am PT
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Hate?
No.
Just a valid question ...
There was no question The Chief, just you hating.
Why so much hate?
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jun 3, 2014 - 07:23am PT
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Yet another morning of hate from The Chief.
Why so much, The Chief?
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