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Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Jan 16, 2016 - 07:16pm PT
It is interesting to speculate on what the ending of the sanctions will do.

$50B will instantly go into paying pre-existing debts.

My guess is that it will give teh stock market a big bump.

And they will have $50B additional to spend.

The end of Iran’s near-total economic isolation could drive more modernization and open the country to moderating outside influences.

I predict that this will greatly strengthen the moderates.
Escopeta

Trad climber
Idaho
Jan 17, 2016 - 06:26am PT
Pardon the disturbance Escopeta
But there was some serious talk going on behind the scenes since most everyone was convinced that you were LEB, and had once again duped us all, and had infected our sweet ST with her vile persona

I didn't think you were LEB, since she wasn't a libertarian, so I looked at your past posting and dug up some old climbing posts of yours and saved your ass,

She disguises herself with weird esoteric names and as a trad climber from Red States, so you can see the similarity.
She wouldn't know that Black Flag was a band, and instead think Jesus was asking about the insecticide.

please carry on

I tried to tell you. Its exactly why I turned off my email contact settings. There are some people here that need immediate medical attention for their mental issues. Maybe you are one of them? Oh no, my bad you "saved" me. Thanks again for "saving" me. Good Grief

In the spirit of full disclosure, saying that you looked up an "old" post isn't really saying much. I have lurked here for many years, but am only posting now that the majority of my climbing days are over.

Its been wonderful to reminisce about my personal golden age of climbing while also a bit disheartening to see what "state" climbing is in (politics aside). Seems to be following the same trajectory of a lot of things such as hunting and fishing. Is that a result of the politics? Naw, I don't think so.

On that note, since this is a political thread, maybe you could get some legislation passed that would make it illegal for this LEB person to join. I imagine that would be just dandy for a lot of folks on here. Another alternative would be to hold the forum owner responsible and say that he/she could be arrested if they were to allow this person back on the forum in any way. Problem solved and I can turn my email contact back on since it was nice to re-connect with a few long lost friends.

Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Jan 17, 2016 - 08:08am PT
Yes, you can thank me for saving you
Get over it
and have a good laugh as well

The LEB disease is like Ebola here, everyone points fingers at it and wants it to go away
and doing the smallest research goes a long a ways against the reactionary knee jerk from most people,
but I'm a skeptic, so I want proof before I make a judgment

There is a long on-going history with us politards
You can't just sneak in and think that no one will question your intentions,
old banned posters come back all the time and try to fit in like nothing happened
Escopeta

Trad climber
Idaho
Jan 17, 2016 - 09:11am PT
You really ought to consider therapy.
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Jan 17, 2016 - 09:22am PT
You really ought to be less snarky
you don't really need to make enemies

and didn't I say GET OVER IT

I have a long history here, and a long history of therapy
It's supposed to be all good fun and laughs, don't forget that
Escopeta

Trad climber
Idaho
Jan 17, 2016 - 09:46am PT
Thanks again for saving me.
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Jan 17, 2016 - 09:50am PT
Your welcome
Please carry on

do you have any Candidates for President that you would endorse?
TomCochrane

Trad climber
Santa Cruz Mountains and Monterey Bay
Jan 17, 2016 - 06:09pm PT
to understand why Washington is hell bent on subdividing and destroying Arabian countries (similar to actions in Africa and Central and South America)

obviously controlling resources is a big deal

but an even bigger deal is preventing Arabia from coming back together as the largest and most powerful nation on earth with immense resources

the technique is to subdivide people along religious and ethnic lines and fund opposing sides who can be manipulated to fight each other

also being done in USA to keep people from effectively collaborating against the controlling oligarchs

the elections are pretty much just a distraction to get people opposing each other
Jorroh

climber
Jan 17, 2016 - 06:28pm PT
"Arabia from coming back together"

Arabia was ever a unified country?
TomCochrane

Trad climber
Santa Cruz Mountains and Monterey Bay
Jan 17, 2016 - 07:13pm PT
You are clearly a history buff….

The arabian Ottoman Empire lasted three times longer than the American empire has so far

From Wikipedia:
With Constantinople as its capital and control of lands around the Mediterranean basin, the Ottoman Empire was at the centre of interactions between the Eastern and Western worlds for six centuries. Following a long period of military setbacks against European powers, the Ottoman Empire gradually declined into the late nineteenth century. The empire allied with Germany in the early 20th century, with the imperial ambition of recovering its lost territories, joining in World War I to achieve this ambition on the side of Germany and the Central Powers. While the Empire was able to largely hold its own during the conflict, it was struggling with internal dissent, especially with the Arab Revolt in its Arabian holdings. Starting before the war, but growing increasingly common and violent during it, major atrocities were committed by the Ottoman government against the Armenians, Assyrians and Pontic Greeks.[16] The Empire's defeat and the occupation of part of its territory by the Allied Powers in the aftermath of the conflict resulted in the emergence of a new state, Turkey, in the Ottoman Anatolian heartland following the Independence war, as well as the founding of modern Balkan and Middle Eastern states.

Turkey's current prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is driven to re-establishing the empire, making him a dangerous flashpoint within NATO.
Jorroh

climber
Jan 17, 2016 - 07:56pm PT
I'm pretty sure it never included all that much of the Arabian peninsula, certainly none of the eastern portion.
Was your original comment referring to The Ottoman Empire? when you said Arabia I thought you were referring to the Arabian Peninsula.
TomCochrane

Trad climber
Santa Cruz Mountains and Monterey Bay
Jan 17, 2016 - 08:31pm PT
so this opens up a much broader discussion about a very complex geo-political arena…where it is much easier to generalize than to be accurate

The Ottomon Empire is gone and broken into many pieces, largely due to European incursions. You can see maps online that show its area and extent over the centuries from 1299-1922

The Arab world stretches from Morocco across Northern Africa to the Persian Gulf. The Arab world is more or less equal to the area known as the Middle East and North Africa. Although this excludes Somalia, Djibouti, and the Comoros Islands which are part of the Arab world. It can also be defined as those countries where Arabic is the dominant language. Arab countries are religiously and ethnically diverse with Islam being the dominant religion in most countries. There are 22 Arab countries/areas: Algeria, Bahrain, the Comoros Islands, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Mauritania, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Iran and Turkey are not Arab countries, although Muslim.

It is often overlooked that the largest Muslim country is Indonesia, which stretches across an area larger than the USA. There are also large Muslim populations in Russia, China, and Southeast Asia.

So if there were going to be a united political unit created, one might call it Arabia for want of a better term, even though only a relatively small percentage of Muslims are arabs. The Islamic State is trying to coopt the concept, but is obviously heavily contested. So I don't know what you might call such a united political federation.

Washington and Europe are extensively immersed in wars and political manipulations to prevent any opportunity for such a united political federation to be created. However Russia's intervention in Syria has just sidetracked Washington's efforts to control the Middle East as part of the Western world's hegemony.
Jorroh

climber
Jan 17, 2016 - 08:51pm PT
"Washington and Europe are extensively immersed in wars and political manipulations to prevent any opportunity for such a united political federation to be created"

I would say that at least two (Iran and Saudi) of the individual components of such a proposed Federation would have a greater interest in preventing it from happening, and would have more to lose, by far, than either Washington or Brussels.

For all their atrocious interventions in the Arab world in the past, I think at this point western countries would love to see more stability in the Arab world.
TomCochrane

Trad climber
Santa Cruz Mountains and Monterey Bay
Jan 17, 2016 - 09:19pm PT
For all their atrocious interventions in the Arab world in the past, I think at this point western countries would love to see more stability in the Arab world.

that may be true of at least some significant portion of the US public…i.e. those supporting Bernie Sanders...

again you haven't been paying attention to all the extreme war mongering speeches in the US presidential political debates

even less have you been paying attention to the massive clandestine support being provided to disruptive elements in the area

your comment might be more appropriate applied to Russia and perhaps some of the saner politicians of Europe…

Last fall Russia announced to the UN Security Council that they would no longer allow this state of the world to continue...

and a few days later began stopping the thousands of trucks transporting oil to Turkey that was stolen by ISIS/DAESH from Syria and Iraq

and providing air support for the Syrian army…countering five years of attempts at 'regime change' by Washington and the Saudis

Meanwhile Iran is now poised to dump large amounts of oil into an already glutted market, driving prices down further and destabilizing the already tenuous hold of the Saudi monarchy

do a pin check on your base rigs folks!
Jorroh

climber
Jan 17, 2016 - 09:27pm PT
"again you haven't been paying attention to all the extreme war mongering speeches in the US presidential political debates "

Well thats true, I haven't bothered to watch a single republican debate.

Don't get your knickers in a twist though Tom, no need to call me stupid or uninformed, I'm genuinely interested to hear why you think that the arab nations, with all their animosities and competing interests would have any interest in forming a federation.

TomCochrane

Trad climber
Santa Cruz Mountains and Monterey Bay
Jan 17, 2016 - 09:28pm PT
sorry, don't intend disrespect…i recognize more than most how hard it is to sleuth out what is really going on these days

the arab speaking countries are in chaotic disarray with many competing agendas and those strong enough to hold part of it together are being selectively eliminated by Washington neocons

this is now translating into Europe and the USA is certainly not immune from the influence of the chaos

the neocon oligarchs controlling the mix promote the chaos to maintain their grip

unfortunately for them the BRICS is now marginalizing them…the Yuan is now an acceptable global currency, putting petrodollars on the sidelines…

and the Washington neocons won't go down without a fight…bristling for war with the Russian/Chinese alliance…which is not a war anyone can win...
TomCochrane

Trad climber
Santa Cruz Mountains and Monterey Bay
Jan 17, 2016 - 09:47pm PT
I'm genuinely interested to hear why you think that the arab nations, with all their animosities and competing interests would have any interest in forming a federation.

In answer to your question…how about this article in the Atlantic Monthly:

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/04/sultan-erdogan-turkeys-rebranding-into-the-new-old-ottoman-empire/274724/

Sultan Erdogan: Turkey's Rebranding Into the New, Old Ottoman Empire
In the eyes of secularists, the Europe-facing, Western-dressing, cocktail-toasting modern nation-state is being replaced by a religiously conservative one, headscarf by headscarf.

The cities might not seem similar today, but one thing Tripoli and Thessaloniki, Basra and Beirut, Sarajevo and Sana'a all once had in common is that just a little over a century ago they were all part of the Ottoman Empire. A second thing they all have in common is that until just a few years ago they harbored a certain disdain for Turkey ... due in large part to the aforementioned empire.

Yet former rivals to the south, east, north and even west now attend Turkish business summits, watch Turkish shows, and purchase Turkish groceries. Interestingly and perhaps contrary to common sense, this recent shift seems to come not as a product of "time healing old wounds" but rather at a period when Turkey has embraced its Ottoman heritage to an unheard-of level.

The most popular television show, Magnificent Century, is essentially a soap opera set in the court of Suleiman the Magnificent, a bit like the Tudors but with even more imposing facial hair.

But beyond foreign policy there lies a much more significant domestic transformation, one that is also driven by history. In that same speech, the foreign minister spoke of the need for a "great restoration" where "we need to embrace fully the ancient values we have lost." Praising the historic bonds that connected the peoples of Turkey over the "new identities that were thrust upon us in the modern era," Davutoglu maintained that the road to Turkey's progress lies in its past - an assertion that has terrified the government's detractors
HighDesertDJ

Trad climber
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 18, 2016 - 12:28pm PT
Tom: It's an interesting idea but if any of them unite it will be sectarian in nature. My limited knowledge of the politics is that the Shia and Sunni majority countries just aren't going to be able to pull something like that off with each other unless the whole Arab world came under attack by a common enemy (e.g. the US). Additionally, most of the leaders of those countries are despots who have no interest in giving up power. Those kinds of people would generally rather be king of sh#t mountain than Vice-President of the United Arab States.


The Democratic debate was too much for me to bear last night. I was tired but I found it intolerable. The closer we get to the voting the more inauthentic all these people get. It's painful.
TomCochrane

Trad climber
Santa Cruz Mountains and Monterey Bay
Jan 18, 2016 - 03:38pm PT


I agree regarding the secular nature of a political federation if you look at the broad mix of religions, sects, tribes and ethnicities involved

However it has happened before and lasted for centuries

how the modern set of despots got into power is another matter entirely and supports my perspective and is generally not well understood in this country


it will take more than a presidential election to heal this nation


The 21st Century: An Era Of Fraud — Paul Craig Roberts
January 18, 2016

In the last years of the 20th century fraud entered US foreign policy in a new way. On false pretenses Washington dismantled Yugoslavia and Serbia in order to advance an undeclared agenda. In the 21st century this fraud multiplied many times. Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, and Libya were destroyed, and Iran and Syria would also have been destroyed if the President of Russia had not prevented it. Washington is also behind the current destruction of Yemen, and Washington has enabled and financed the Israeli destruction of Palestine. Additionally, Washington operated militarily within Pakistan without declaring war, murdering many women, children, and village elders under the guise of “combating terrorism.” Washington’s war crimes rival those of any country in history.

I have documented these crimes in my columns and books (Clarity Press).
Anyone who still believes in the purity of Washington’s foreign policy is a lost soul.

Russia and China now have a strategic alliance that is too strong for Washington. Russia and China will prevent Washington from further encroachments on their security and national interests. Those countries important to Russia and China will be protected by the alliance. As the world wakes up and sees the evil that the West represents, more countries will seek the protection of Russia and China.

America is also failing on the economic front. My columns and my book, The Failure of Laissez Faire Capitalism, which has been published in English, Chinese, Korean, Czech, and German, have shown how Washington has stood aside, indeed cheering it on, while the short-term profit interests of management, shareholders, and Wall Street eviscerated the American economy, sending manufacturing jobs, business know-how, and technology, along with professional tradeable skill jobs, to China, India, and other countries, leaving America with such a hollowed out economy that the median family income has been falling for years. Today 50% of 25 year-old Americans are living with their parents or grandparents because they cannot find employment sufficient to sustain an independent existance. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-27/why-are-half-all-25-year-olds-still-living-their-parents-federal-reserve-answers This brutal fact is covered up by the presstitute US media, a source of fantasy stories of America’s economic recovery.

The facts of our existence are so different from what is reported that I am astonished. As a former professor of economics, Wall Street Journal editor and Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, I am astonished at the corruption that rules in the financial sector, the Treasury, the financial regulatory agencies, and the Federal Reserve. In my day, there would have been indictments and prison sentences of bankers and high government officials.

In America today there are no free financial markets. All the markets are rigged by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. The regulatory agencies, controlled by those the agencies are supposed to regulate, turn a blind eye, and even if they did not, they are helpless to enforce any law, because private interests are more powerful than the law.

Even the government’s statistical agencies have been corrupted. Inflation measures have been concocted in order to understate inflation. This lie not only saves Washington from paying Social Security cost-of-living adjustments and frees the money for more wars, but also by understating inflation, the government can create real GDP growth by counting inflation as real growth, just as the government creates 5% unemployment by not counting any discouraged workers who have looked for jobs until they can no longer afford the cost of looking and give up. The official unemployment rate is 5%, but no one can find a job. How can the unemployment rate be 5% when half of 25-year olds are living with relatives because they cannot afford an independent existence? As John Williams (shadowfacts) reports, the unemployment rate that includes those Americans who have given up looking for a job because there are no jobs to be found is 23%.

The Federal Reserve, a tool of a small handful of banks, has succeeded in creating the illusion of an economic recovery since June, 2009, by printing trillions of dollars that found their way not into the economy but into the prices of financial assets. Artificially booming stock and bond markets are the presstitute financial media’s “proof” of a booming economy.

The handful of learned people that America has left, and it is only a small handful, understand that there has been no recovery from the previous recession and that a new downturn is upon us. John Williams has pointed out that US industrial production, when properly adjusted for inflation, has never recovered its 2008 level, much less its 2000 peak, and has again turned down.

The American consumer is exhausted, overwhelmed by debt and lack of income growth. The entire economic policy of America is focused on saving a handful of NY banks, not on saving the American economy.

Economists and other Wall Street shills will dismiss the decline in industrial production as America is now a service economy. Economists pretend that these are high-tech services of the New Economy, but in fact waitresses, bartenders, part time retail clerks, and ambulatory health care services have replaced manufacturing and engineering jobs at a fraction of the pay, thus collapsing effective aggregate demand in the US. On occasions when neoliberal economists recognize problems, they blame them on China.

It is unclear that the US economy can be revived. To revive the US economy would require the re-regulation of the financial system and the recall of the jobs and US GDP that offshoring gave to foreign countries. It would require, as Michael Hudson demonstrates in his new book, Killing the Host, a revolution in tax policy that would prevent the financial sector from extracting economic surplus and capitalizing it in debt obligations paying interest to the financial sector.

The US government, controlled as it is by corrupt economic interests, would never permit policies that impinged on executive bonuses and Wall Street profits. Today US capitalism makes its money by selling out the American economy and the people dependent upon it.

In “freedom and democracy” America, the government and the economy serve interests totally removed from the interests of the American people. The sellout of the American people is protected by a huge canopy of propaganda provided by free market economists and financial presstitutes paid to lie for their living.

When America fails, so will Washington’s vassal states in Europe, Canada, Australia, and Japan. Unless Washington destroys the world in nuclear war, the world will be remade, and the corrupt and dissolute West will be an insignificant part of the new world.
HighDesertDJ

Trad climber
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 18, 2016 - 05:21pm PT
That's a pretty myopic viewpoint and I would challenge his conclusion by asking the equally cynical question, "is what follows the American empire going to be any less corrupt?"


Here is an article in the New Republic that does a good job of articulating and expanding upon my view of the Democratic race: http://newrepublic.com/article/127925/say-want-revolution-bernie

Max Weber, the great sociologist best remembered for coining the phrase “Protestant work ethic,” would have loved Sunday’s Democratic debate. Leaving aside the sad and quixotic figure of Martin O’Malley, the two main contenders Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders perfectly illustrated a distinction Weber made in his classic 1919 essay “Politics as a Vocation.” In that essay, Weber distinguished between two different ethical approaches to politics, an “ethics of moral conviction” and an “ethics of responsibility.”

It's well worth a read.
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