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raymond phule
climber
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Mar 12, 2014 - 04:01am PT
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But here's the explanation of my analogy, right or wrong: there was a huge spike in temperatures before the "hiatus," then we've been having a "hiatus" since then. I think the prediction was more of a steady increase. You may get to the same place in terms of temperature, but it's hard to have much confidence that the model is actually working.
The climate signal has a quite large natural variability (noise). The predictor usually tries to predict the underlying signal (because it cant predict the noise). What we see in the climate and the climate models are that there are variability that we cant predict but that the underlying signal is relatively well predicted.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Mar 12, 2014 - 09:52am PT
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I will say it again,look at that obvious HIATUS.
Malemute,Great article man.
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mechrist
Gym climber
South of Heaven
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Mar 12, 2014 - 11:14am PT
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Discussing climate models with the scientifically illiterate is like discussing a poem about sunsets with Helen Keller without holding her hand.
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mechrist
Gym climber
South of Heaven
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Mar 12, 2014 - 11:31am PT
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Hey, did you ever figure out why the IPCC concluded what they concluded about the model fit? It must suck not being able to comprehend the report you (claim to have) referenced. You should just stick to wattsupwithat... they put things in terms morans can understand... even if it is taken out of context and mostly wrong.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Mar 12, 2014 - 11:57am PT
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mechrist
Gym climber
South of Heaven
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Mar 12, 2014 - 12:06pm PT
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Chuffnuts, do you know what "aerosols" are and how they affect climate?
Did you miss these parts:
"Despite the large uncertainty ranges on aerosol forcing, there is a high confidence that aerosols have offset a substantial portion of GHG forcing."
So funny when you dipshits pull out quotes you THINK support your opinions, but in fact they show just how little you comprehend. (hint: see "hiatus")
How about this one:
"it is assessed that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 is very likely due to the observed anthropogenic increase in WMGHG concentrations."
And remember back when you fools insisted humans couldn't possibly increase the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere?
"The distribution of observed atmospheric CO2 increases with latitude clearly shows that the increases are driven by anthropogenic emissions that occur primarily in the industrialized countries north of the equator."
Do you ever get tired of being wrong and stupid? There are alternatives you know? 1) open your mind and get an education, 2) stop pretending you know something you clearly don't know sh#t about.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 12, 2014 - 12:21pm PT
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It's hard to say--the lines are jumping around so much it's hard to make heads or tales of them.
I suggest you stop drinking so much, blahblah. The data is quite stable.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Mar 12, 2014 - 12:23pm PT
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It doesn't matter what units of measurement that are used Ed. It doesn't matter how interesting your plot was. What matters is that you modified model output to yield results the models don't project. You then posted up without sufficient qualification, many times after your initial posting-that is beneath you and a disservice to this bizzare community of combatants.
Hansen's plot is a prediction, yet i note that observations are below even his scenario c while emissions exceed scenario a. Something is definitely wrong in his calculations and the science of CAGW as a whole.Denial will get you guys no where.
Packing up for a little trip out into the void, beyond your guys nonsensical, desperate, denial of reality.
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mechrist
Gym climber
South of Heaven
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Mar 12, 2014 - 12:37pm PT
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And you have a PhD??
Yep, and you never will.
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raymond phule
climber
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Mar 12, 2014 - 12:56pm PT
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Talking about predictions. Where can I found the predictions that show that it is the sun that is the cause of the warming? It would be interesting to compare them to the other predictions.
Why do people still listen to Lindzen when his predictions have failed completely?
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Mar 12, 2014 - 01:24pm PT
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Mar 12, 2014 - 01:47pm PT
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poor persecuted know it all.
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BLUEBLOCR
Social climber
joshua tree
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Mar 12, 2014 - 01:56pm PT
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OMG that Chia Chief is too much!!! LOL. You guys are to funny!
The best attack show in town. But what's the resolution?
Isn't the Moon the biggest contributor toward our climate, climate change, climate control. The moon used to be 10 times bigger, and 100 times closer when the planet was cooler. Maybe we could manipulate the moon to control the Earths temperature? Try steering an asteroid at the moon to add mass, or to adjust its orbit.?
No Prob !! Get on it Ed.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Mar 12, 2014 - 01:57pm PT
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you're babbling now, The Chief...
was there a hiatus?
certainly not on hypocrisy. Chef anti-Scientism braying for scientific method…cite yer refs…HEEEEHAAAW...
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mechrist
Gym climber
South of Heaven
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Mar 12, 2014 - 02:05pm PT
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To be successful, a straw man argument requires that the audience be ignorant or uninformed of the original argument.
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mechrist
Gym climber
South of Heaven
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Mar 12, 2014 - 03:00pm PT
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How could I ever hope to sell them when yall keep throwing them out for free?
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 12, 2014 - 03:54pm PT
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The time frame you indicate DOES not include 1910 to 1945 does it now.
I think I smell an uneducated mass pretending to be something it is not.
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mechrist
Gym climber
South of Heaven
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Mar 12, 2014 - 05:28pm PT
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I worry about stupid people who keep posting that irrelevant graph (another gem from wattsupwiththat)... just as irrelevant as when 72% of Merkins worried a great deal about climate change back in 2000. I worry that they don't worry about how fuking stupid they are. Is it because they are oblivious to their own ignorance? Are they incapable of realizing their stupidity? Or are they just happy, carefree people who don't worry about anything but their own immediate satisfaction? I worry that there is nothing we can do to help educate them and no possibility of ever dislodging their heads from their rectums.
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