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bluering
Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
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Mar 12, 2014 - 12:47am PT
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Point taken, Chief, but prior to your oil-powered Carrier fleets (prior to nuc-power) and the automobile, there were similar climatic events that were even more drastic.
Had nothing to do with CO2 emissions. Does anybody wanna examine why that occurred? What was the cause back then?
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bluering
Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
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Mar 12, 2014 - 12:59am PT
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WTF is an "engineering type"? Do you hold an electrical engineering degree? Are you a PE or any kind in the State of CA? Have you studied even basic climate and weather physics? Modeling of chaotic systems?
I'm gonna say no to all the above.
You are yet another petulant bumpkin, stamping your widdle feet because mommy and daddy won't stop using those big 'ol words you can't understand. Smugly thinking your clever while the actual adults in the room laugh at you from the corner. GFY, dipsh#t.
No BS degree, only an AS degree in electronics technology.
However, I am a specialist in Failure Analysis for my current employer. I worked with my former Navy Bosses who always like the work I did. We don't do Naval work, but for some reason all my bosses were retired Navy. One was a Naval audio specialist. And he always assaigned rough projects to me to solve.
Know why? I produced results and solved problems. Still do.
My point is that I have a technical, analytical mind. I am charged with finding solutions to problems. I'm still employed because I'm effective.
Not bragging, just telling you what I do.
I can see bullshit and failed systems a mile away. I fix stuff. And this whole Global Warming thing does not add up as I look at more and more data.
It's bullsh#t.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Mar 12, 2014 - 01:15am PT
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Chef demands 'Sciency' answers to 'Sciency' questions. discovers Dictionary on same day. Meanwhile secret magic formula for helicopter flight remains a closely guarded secret....que snarky sentence fragment from Sketchy...
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Mar 12, 2014 - 01:18am PT
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Here is the RSS webpage comparing regional and global satellite observed anomalies versus the 5-95% output range of climate models Ed. They don't seem to confirm the robustness of agreement indicated in your plot.
http://www.remss.com/research/climate
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Mar 12, 2014 - 01:34am PT
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sure are posting a lot of Sciencey stuff Chef. I guess all that anti- scientism ranting was just blowhard hypocrisy...or, more likely, you can't remember what you posted yesterday....
Just another one of your pretty crayon drawings with NO ref/citation.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Mar 12, 2014 - 01:39am PT
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magic ..not science. right Chef.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Mar 12, 2014 - 01:45am PT
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invented by ...Magicians?
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Mar 12, 2014 - 01:51am PT
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BTW ICEY, vertical flight via the dynamics of the modern day helo defys all scientific laws of ... flight.
so you're calling it Magic? Since Engineering is not a science. eh?
Bilgemopper.com
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 12, 2014 - 01:55am PT
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Invented by a man with a dream to defy gravity through vertical flight and perfected by Engineers.
Yes, perfected by engineers who rely on scientific study. Those pilots bet their lives on it.
But why all the hate The Chief? Bringing pictures of war into our thread.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Mar 12, 2014 - 01:58am PT
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Your plot is pure "bilge" professor. You treated the model outputs just like the data set- you calculated the average model results from 1961-1990 ( just like the data Hadcrut4) and subtracted the average from yearly model results, which yields your interesting but meaningless (compared to modeled non reality) result.
Dickwad? professor are you returning to youth? I hope it wasn't comparable to Wes's.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 12, 2014 - 02:02am PT
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which yields your interesting but meaningless (compared to modeled non reality) result.
Say rick, can you put this last bit into layman's terms?
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Mar 12, 2014 - 02:02am PT
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that fossil fuel burning vehicle
invented by Magicians and Engineers whom don't believe in Science...
RIIIGHT. NIICE. GOT IT.
do you get better gas mileage on that moped while you are constantly denying the science of the engine and transmission and differential gear box and materials/compounds in the tires and the heat expanding the air in them and... while driving?
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 12, 2014 - 02:04am PT
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They bet their lives on their ability to manipulate the flight controls and the throttle accordingly.
Come on, The Chief. What do the flight controls work? How about the throttle. Do you have any clue on the scientific study that goes into the rotors alone? My good friend Fort used to be the lead scientists at Moffat Field, studying just such things in a huge-ass wind tunnel.
And believe me, those pilots rely on the response from how they throttle and move the controls.
Again, you know squat.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 12, 2014 - 02:08am PT
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I agree. Damn the Manhattan Project. Scientific study at its worst.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Mar 12, 2014 - 02:08am PT
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me:
I didn't see anything in the Hansen plots that seem to correlate to the 1998-2012 "hiatus," however you want to define it
Ed:
now you want to redefine "predict" to include the so called "hiatus"?
the "hiatus" in the plots I've shown fits into the variability, and Hansen's 1984 predictions, (three of the models, the fourth ignores the ocean heat capacity which we know is incorrect) all fit into the variability too, that is to say, the predictions are consistent with the observations.
that is all a prediction needs to be... you'd like to change the definition now?
I was blasted earlier (not by Ed) for saying that the models didn't predict the "hiatus" (and that's what I said--my earlier comment was specifically about the hiatus).
I'm not changing any definitions, but was rather simply making an observation that, squabbling aside, seems to be correct. I suppose you could say my observation was trite or irrelevant or anything else, but I've yet to see anything suggesting it was wrong.
Here's an analogy:
Let's say I predict the Broncos go 16-0 next year (regular season), and 0-16 the year after that.
In fact, they go 8-8 each year.
Using Ed's logic, you could say I made a great prediction!
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Mar 12, 2014 - 02:08am PT
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no chef, according to me, and your anti-scientism rants, it, like modern warfare. is all based on magic.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Mar 12, 2014 - 02:11am PT
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Damn that science.
That seems a fair summation of your arguments, Chief. With that in mind I would be little
inclined to argue with Ed.
Ps
Let's argue about the 'science' of aerodynamics so I can contribute, ok?
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 12, 2014 - 02:12am PT
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blahblah, that's not a correct analogy.
It's more like saying the Broncos will go 10 and 6 next year, with a variance of 2 either way. When they go 9 and 7, the prediction was correct.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Mar 12, 2014 - 02:22am PT
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Chef, I'm totally open to your anti-scientism magic engineering. Please submit your sources/references for peer review.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Mar 12, 2014 - 02:34am PT
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so blahblah, how do you decide if a prediction is correct, quantitatively?
I don't know--I suppose that depends on the prediction.
But we don't need to reduce it to a number--we can look at Hansen's predictions and see that he failed to predict the phenomenon that the world calls the "hiatus," even though we don't all agree that it means the same thing or that it even exists.
I suppose it's possible that Hansen's predictions were OK in some other way, but I'd like to see if he did better than just looking at the trends as the time he made his predictions and using them.
blahblah, that's not a correct analogy.
It's more like saying the Broncos will go 10 and 6 next year, with a variance of 2 either way. When they go 9 and 7, the prediction was correct. It's hard to say--the lines are jumping around so much it's hard to make heads or tales of them. (The "lines" being the actual temperature (and there's still debate about that that really is!) and Hansen's predictions during the time frame we're talking about--mid 80s to present.
But here's the explanation of my analogy, right or wrong: there was a huge spike in temperatures before the "hiatus," then we've been having a "hiatus" since then. I think the prediction was more of a steady increase. You may get to the same place in terms of temperature, but it's hard to have much confidence that the model is actually working.
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