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onyourleft
climber
Smog Angeles
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I suspect Matthew did not die in some cataclysmic fall. I'm more inclined to believe that while attempting to move quickly over treacherous terrain, he likely suffered an debilitating injury that stopped his progress. Without help, and protection from the environment, he was up against odds that were inevitable.
Cragman, your analysis and speculation are very likely (and tragically) accurate.
At least by bumping this thread back to the front page, people who are affected by this story will continue to think about it and perhaps continue searching while the backcountry is still snow-free. With Labor Day weekend now behind us, the days are getting shorter and colder, and the first snows of the fall are only weeks away. My days of serious mountaineering are years behind me, but maybe there are still some motivated individuals that will get out to the Mammoth backcountry and keep searching.
I didn't get the pleasure of meeting or sharing a campfire with Matt, but his drive and passion resonates deeply within the fond memories of a much younger me...
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bluering
Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
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Good stuff, Dean. If I was down in the field, I'd want you looking for me.
God bless ya, bro! Good luck.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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What I don't understand is why he wasn't reported missing earlier by the repair shop (considering he was obviously eager for his car to be done; surely it's a red flag that once it's done you don't hear back from Matt).
Likewise, he paid an additional night at the campground, all his gear still there but they didn't report him missing either. Threw his stuff in storage and when my parents called asking about retrieving Matt's stuff (after the story was common knowledge)? The first words they heard from the campground was that Matt owed them $100. Really? Despicable.
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tdg119
Social climber
Northampton, PA
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My only thought to some of what's been posted is Matt times everything and would turn around, regardless of his place at the time, in order to return before dark fall. He does not climb to "bag" a mountain; if he didn't accomplish a summit he'd just make a point for his next trip round. Having said that, I agree with the theory that he probably experienced a debilitating injury. If it was anything less he'd have crawled out by now. Just want to make it clear that I do not believe any such injury was caused by rushing or carelessness. That's not Matt. I believe it's just a case of Mother Nature besting him; accidents can happen to even the most careful of people.
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Todd Quinn
Trad climber
Oceanside, CA
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Cragman thanks for sharing the information about the deep crevasse close to the glacier. No evidence of Matthew's body suggest he can't be seen from our perspective. After studying the area by photo and people like yourself searching. I can't imagine not checking the difficult crevasses?
My last recover search involved a family member who lowered a video camera in a cave. She found her brothers body after many SAR teams searched and cleared the cave. Guillermo Pino Jr. body fell and took unbelievable angles before resting at the bottom. The camera was a low tech idea but the family produced results without putting anyone in danger.
The danger is all around Ritter and only experience teams should navigate in and around the area. But if they did, have the ability to lower a camera in areas we can't see.
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crankster
Trad climber
South Lake Tahoe, CA
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Tiffany, Matt would likely have practiced the general rule of mountaineering, "speed is safety". That is, move fast and deliberate to limit the chances of being caught out at night or in weather, but staying within ones's abilities. Sometimes it's a very fine line.
Hard to argue with Cragman's assessment. Matt's climbing partner's opinion that he would have turned around from a climb if he forgot his helmet puzzles me, however.
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WBraun
climber
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Or .... he was never even in this search area.
No one really knows ......
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LAhiker
Social climber
Los Angeles
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Cragman, thanks for your comments. I stand corrected in my characterization of Ritter as “epic,” though it does sound like it could have involved a big day in the mountains, which of course may have been precisely what Matt had planned.
I realize there are different routes up these mountains, but what is a ballpark sense of how long it would take to go from Agnew Meadows and climb Ritter, Banner, or both? Of course, he still had to get to the trailhead.
Thanks also for your clarification of what might be ruled in or out for Matt by his not having his helmet. Given his practice of signing summit registers and the absence of his name at Banner or Ritter, it sounds to me that if he did go climbing to Banner or Ritter, his accident or injury probably occurred on the approach or the ascent. I take your point that speed might have both seemed necessary and proved his undoing.
I realize from your reports that it’s very hard to see people – whether alive or deceased – in these vast and jumbled areas. Are any of the approaches and climbs more well-traveled, or do they involve fewer more clearly defined routes, so it might have been likely someone would have seen an injured person?
Or maybe Riley is right that even if he went to that area, Matt might not have planned to summit, but rather took some other route? The dangerous “high route" between Ediza and Cecile (or the other way round) described by HighTraverse comes to mind, though if Matt knew how dangerous that was, I don’t think he would’ve done it…
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OutdoorGal
Social climber
Lehigh Valley, PA
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Has anyone considered further the possibility that Matt may have stayed closer to town?
For someone walking from Shady Rest, in the dark, in the middle of the night, the Minarets and the Ritter Range are quite the trek just to get to a trailhead.
Earlier in Matt's climbing tick list, he had climbed on Crystal Crag. He would have seen the Mammoth Crest from that airy summit, and nearly two months ago, there might have appeared enticing snow routes.
A pre-dawn start from Shady Rest, one could walk up Old Mammoth Road into the Lakes Basin to access several trailheads leading up to the "then" snow line. I know the obvious snow lines near Ritter and the Minarets have been admirably and heroically searched by Cragman and his partners, but I just keep wondering if there's something to be found nearer to town?
Others on here have considered and posted the possibility that Matt may have hiked from Shady Rest back to the Mammoth Crest area and surrounds to explore snow fields closer to camp than the Ritter Range is. Blue Couloir was one example given, and I believe I remember seeing a post from one of Matt's friends that said Cragman and High Traverse thought that area might deserve a look. I have not seen them mention it themselves, though, presumably because they are intently zeroed in on the theory that Matt's target was Ritter on the 17th. I would be curious to hear their opinion on whether a search in the Mammoth Crest area (Blue Couloir, for example) might be warranted in addition to the ongoing investigation of Ritter--or if it would at least be prudent to get the word out to other hikers already planning on exploring the trails in this region (I think I saw that Duck Pass Trail was among them?), so as many boots as possible can be on the ground and looking for Matt before the weather changes for the season, making searching more difficult.
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SplitPants
Social climber
LA
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All,
Not sure if this helps but I did a little resarch as I wanted to know the sunrise and sunset for 7/17 and here is the information based on the Mammoth Lakes general lat/long:
Sunrise: 5:48am
Solar noon: 1:02pm
Sunset: 8:16pm
Moonrise: 3:12pm
Moonset: 12:57am
Day length: 14h 29m
[EDIT] Matt's phone was on @ 2:53 AM so that is almost 3 hours prior to sunrise. So that gives him about a 17.5 hour day +/-
Concerning Mammoth Crest he went there on 7/7 via Emerald Lake with Jill and John and then again on 7/12 (solo). Would Matt go there a third time?
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LAhiker
Social climber
Los Angeles
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Thanks, SplitPants!
That's important info re the sun and moon times. (Looks like the moon didn't come up until late that afternoon, and thus would not have been helpful during the first part of Matt's day. Not that moonlight is always that helpful.)
Regarding the Mammoth Crest, would you count Crystal Crag (on 6/29, with Jill and John) as part of it? If so, Matt went there three times and the question is, would he have gone there a fourth time?
ETA: He went there 3 times...
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SplitPants
Social climber
LA
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LAHiker
Yes. So in theory Matt went to that area 3 times (good point). Would he go a 4th?
Cragman/All --feel free to chime in
These are pretty heavily traveled areas. I also stumbled upon information that indicates there was a big trail clean up project this summer for Mammoth Crest (fyi).
I defer to Jill/Cragman/Matts friends for an opinion on this as to whether Matt would go back to the same area a 4th time.
[EDIT: went to area 3 times, not 4-LAHiker]
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Supermama
Social climber
pa
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Hi everyone,
I have reposted Split Pants' links to the lists of facts we do know about Matt's disappearance. We also have a better idea of how Matt thinks now based on previous posts of journal entries. If anything new was found since Split Pants posted this, please add to it. I thought if we consolidated everything and looked at it all together, it might help us to see something we might have missed. Thanks to everyone who has been helping!
Supermama
http://www.supertopo.com/inc/photo_zoom.php?dpid=Oj49Pz4kISslLA,,
http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=2195321&tn=1400
http://www.supertopo.com/inc/photo_view.php?dpid=Oj49PDcgIyQlJQ,,
http://www.supertopo.com/inc/photo_view.php?dpid=Oj49PDgoJiQmIw,,
http://www.supertopo.com/inc/photo_view.php?dpid=Oj49PDgoIisjIg,,
http://www.supertopo.com/inc/photo_view.php?dpid=Oj49PDgoISMmIQ,,
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HighTraverse
Trad climber
Bay Area
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I agree with Cragman that Matt would continue without helmet. Particularly for the SE Glacier which is rated 3d class.
Regarding the exposed traverse.
Matt had climbed the Rock Route on the Clyde Minaret less than a week previously. The approach had taken him above the south end of this traverse (to the north of Cecile Lake) so he knew what it looked like from above.
He may not have appreciated its full danger unless he actually was on the traverse. It gets worse as you go North.
Would taking that traverse to Ritter have been his plan? Quite possibly; until you get engaged in the hazards, it looks appealing (I got "suckered" into it once). Would he have turned back? I don't think any of us can say.
I haven't been to the Blue Diamond couloir or Crystal Crag so I can't have any opinion.
I DO think that without his helmet, Matt would have not gone onto steep snow/ice anywhere in the Ritter range.
14 1/2 hours from sunrise to sunset, plus at least 30 minutes of dawn/dusk at either end is plenty of time from Minarets summit to Ritter and return. (for Matt who almost relished long days on foot)
I will re-iterate: I don't think Matt would walk to the Ritter range from Shady Rest. That turns a long but reasonable day (for Matt) in the mountains into an epic. We know he didn't mind hitchhiking to get to a climb when his car was broken (his 2006 diary). He would have planned to get back in time for the shuttle bus return, or hitchhike back from the trailhead, or at last resort to even to walk back. I strongly suspect he either hitchhiked or had a pre-planned ride from Mammoth to at least Minarets Summit. If so, that person hasn't come forward. If that person were another traveler, on their way out of the Mammoth area any time before Matt was reported missing they likely haven't heard of his disappearance. (there are far more reasons such a person would NOT hear of Matt's plight than that they would).
My guess is Matt had one of two objectives, either of which required an ice axe and preferably crampons as well but didn't necessarily require a helmet.
1 - Ritter SE Glacier. We can be pretty sure Matt didn't reach the Ritter summit. He would most likely approach via Agnew Meadows trailhead and Lake Ediza. Moats and bergschrunds to capture the careless or unlucky.
2- South Notch (above Cecile Lake) into the Amphitheater Lake arena and possibly around the back side of Adams and possibly climb the 2nd class south slope. Very few people go back there and that may have appealed to Matt for his last day. This would be an easy day over new ground to a new peak. He would approach from the Minarets Creek/Devil's Postpile trailhead. Many climbers down climb from the Clyde summit and then descend South Notch (Matt may have done this when he previously climbed the Clyde Rock Route). An axe and crampons make the reverse ascent from Cecile Lake quite easy. The back (west side) of South Notch is a boulder field, pretty nasty in places. A bad place to break a leg or get jammed in a crevice.
EDIT: D'oh
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Vegasclimber
Trad climber
Las Vegas, NV.
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Cragman,
Thanks for your clear and thoughtful summation. I too have gone away from this thread due to the wild theories, ideas, arguments and other esoteric nonsense that have occurred here. I'd like to remind you all that friends and family of Matt's are reading this thread, and may take some wildy inaccurate guessing and theories as shreds of hope, and it's unfair to them to post these ideas and especially arguments,
Our SAR team had a case regarding a deceased individual that took us over a year to close. We searched over 200 square miles of desert, before finding the individual in an area that had already been searched and cleared by another team.
Keep in mind that this wasn't a person or two, but teams of 30 or more trained individuals that made closure for the family possible.
The SAR environment in an episode like this, as Cragman has said, is about the toughest possible, and I am really glad there are people like Crag that have the knowledge and the heart to do what has to be done. Let's stick to the known facts, and the known facts alone. That is the greatest help that anyone who is not on the ground, or that have no experience with what is going on here, can do to help.
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HighTraverse
Trad climber
Bay Area
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Cragman, Sorry, I read your post three times and my quote twice and just now realized we are in complete agreement.
I'm going to edit my earlier post.
And I believe he likely had a pre-arranged ride to the trailhead I concur
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SplitPants
Social climber
LA
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Cragman & HighTraverse
"Great minds think alike" :)
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phylp
Trad climber
Millbrae, CA
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Mammoth Crest/Lakes Basin area does not add up with him taking his boots, crampons and axe...those areas are melted out this year
This includes Crystal Crag, which people have been asking about - no snow or ice of any kind there. Only well- travelled rock routes...Dozens of people a day this time of year. It's only an hour hike in...
There have been a number of comments along the lines of "Matt couldn't have hitch-hiked because someone would have come forward by now". This strikes me as an unwarranted assumption. Besides HT's reasoning above, Any worker who doesn't speak English (and we have a lot here in CA), might have no idea Matt is missing. Any worker who is an undocumented alien (and we have a lot here in CA), might not come forward. And anyone with a criminal record of any kind, even if not serious, and completely innocent of any activity involving Matt, might not want to come forward and expose themselves to the scrutiny of being the last person to see Matt.
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crankster
Trad climber
South Lake Tahoe, CA
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And I believe he likely had a pre-arranged ride to the trailhead, as opposed to hitchhiking.
Is this your thinking because the shuttle driver doesn't recall Matt on the 17th? Or because he would not likely try to summit Ritter starting after the shuttle was running?
I've often wondered if a foreign climber/tourist might have given Matt a ride and returned home, unaware he is missing. The Eastern Sierra corridor is very popular with Europeans. Is there a ST European version?
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LAhiker
Social climber
Los Angeles
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Has there been an attempt to specifically target Mammoth employees and encourage whoever might have given Matt a ride to come forward? Perhaps a small reward would loosen tongues, though it would have to be carefully framed so as not to lead people to make things up.
If a Mammoth employee did drop Matt off at Agnew Meadows or some other place, that would at least confirm that y'all are looking in the right haystack...
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