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JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
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Nov 30, 2015 - 12:17pm PT
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Using survey data on rates of household gun ownership, we examined the association between gun availability and homicide across states, 2001-2003. We found that states with higher levels of household gun ownership had higher rates of firearm homicide and overall homicide. This relationship held for both genders and all age groups, after accounting for rates of aggravated assault, robbery, unemployment, urbanization, alcohol consumption, and resource deprivation (e.g., poverty). There was no association between gun prevalence and non-firearm homicide.
This sort of correlation runs into a technical statistical problem of multicollinearity. The same sort of thing shows up when comparing police expenditures to murder rates. There is a strong positive correlation between police expenditures and murder rates. It would be easy to conclude (erroneously) that higher police expenditures increase murder rates. More likely, high murder rates lead the public to demand increased police protection. Unraveling that mystery requires more than merely determining correlations. One must also construct and test models of causation. In the case of police expenditures, those models show that police expenditures have no statistically significant causal relationship to murder rates, but murder rates have a statistically significant causal relationship to police expenditures.
Higher gun availability may reflect a desire of the public for increased self-protection for people from areas with high murder rates. I don't see the tests for causality in the studies HDDJ cites.
On the other hand, I also don't see tests for causality in the statistics cited by opponents of gun control, when, for example, they show places with very strict gun laws, such as Washington D.C. and Chicago, have very high firearm and total homicide rates. I think the issue is far from resolved.
I particularly discount studies from countries that don't have a Second Amendment equivalent with a correspondingly large number of illegally owned firearms. The comparisons differ too much.
I realize this lacks the sort of ad hominem attack prevalent on this page, but I thought a little variety could be useful.
John
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HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 30, 2015 - 12:20pm PT
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Ragetta posted I am absolutely saying that anyone who wished to acquire a gun could do so - just like anyone who wishes to acquire pot can do so. You cannot legislate "morality." Are you aware that persons who wish to use heroin can have it delivered to their door? Black marketeers are businessmen and they fill a need.
So you're saying that I can run down to my neighborhood black market and buy a rocket launcher right now? That all illegal things are as attainable as other illegal things? Also, how do you explain the effect in the research I posted? And who said anything about legislating morality? We're talking about legislating gun ownership.
John posted Higher gun availability may reflect a desire of the public for increased self-protection for people from areas with high murder rates. I don't see the tests for causality in the studies HDDJ cites.
On the other hand, I also don't see tests for causality in the statistics cited by opponents of gun control, when, for example, they show places with very strict gun laws, such as Washington D.C. and Chicago, have very high firearm and total homicide rates. I think the issue is far from resolved.
There are very few things that pass a "test for causality." Arguably, nothing does. There is no actual "test for causality" that HIV causes AIDS but there is so far a 100% correlation that people with AIDS test positive for HIV.
There is a very strong correlation between high rates of gun ownership (state vs state, country vs country) and high rates of death/suicide. There is no correlation between being a refugee and committing acts of violence. Why so eager to act on something with no evidence and such reluctance to act on something with evidence?
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HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 30, 2015 - 12:33pm PT
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Holy crap it IS Lois. Welcome back!
*edit*
Now about your research. Please summarize it more succinctly and we will discuss it further
If you're really too lazy to read something that's already summarized and bullet pointed I got nothing for ya, man.
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JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
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Nov 30, 2015 - 12:37pm PT
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There are very few things that pass a "test for causality."
That's why merely showing a correlation demonstrates less than most people contend. Without testing for causality, we can't determine "nonsense correlations" from causal ones. Showing the correlation is an important step, but it's not a sufficient one to address the arguments most purport to address.
John
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HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 30, 2015 - 12:41pm PT
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Most of the decisions doctors and economists made are based on correlations, many of them much weaker than what I posted. Perfect causality is only demanded by people who aren't interested in doing the things that need doing. Do you have evidence that would contradict the possible causation that I've proposed? Or that would suggest another cause? Newton's Laws of Physics are wrong. They're just right enough to get us to the Moon. I wish we could be that wrong about gun control.
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philo
climber
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Nov 30, 2015 - 12:42pm PT
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HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 30, 2015 - 12:54pm PT
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Got a full patient load, then?
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apogee
climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
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Nov 30, 2015 - 12:55pm PT
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Good luck to you not getting the axe again, Lois!
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HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 30, 2015 - 01:20pm PT
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John- Lots of medical decisions are made with mere correlative evidence. Lots more than that are made with no evidence at all. We are currently onramping the widespread use of a certain drug for trauma patients based on correlative evidence.
America is an experiment in gun ownership. The rest of the world is the control group. Here's how that is working out:
WOW THIS IS A TOTAL MYSTERY WHAT IS THE DEAL WITH ALL THOSE GUN DEATHS IN AMERICA WHAT COULD POSSIBLY BE THE CAUSE I GUESS WE'LL NEVER KNOW
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Craig Fry
Trad climber
So Cal.
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Nov 30, 2015 - 01:29pm PT
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Grasping at straws
It's much easier to just deny good science and accept talking points produced by the NRA
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Norton
Social climber
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Nov 30, 2015 - 02:28pm PT
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Majid_S
Mountain climber
Karkoekstan
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Nov 30, 2015 - 03:11pm PT
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Donald will be your daddy for 8 years and this is why:
first, he has money to buy everyone in DC.,this includes all the whores in the house and sen
Sec,he is anti-immigrant of all colors which adds extra vote from radicals to his box
third,he will start the middle east WW3
and forth, the religious followers love a man like Don
so repeat after me
Donald is my daddy
The other alternative is Clinton but you all know that no women will ever become the leader of this country so don't fool yourself
Vote for your Daddy
meanwhile
http://www.mintpressnews.com/211624-2/211624/
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John M
climber
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Nov 30, 2015 - 03:39pm PT
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I am still trying to be certain that I understand your position correctly. You want legislation which would bar all private citizens from owning any firearms? Is that a correct statement of your views?
LOL.. welcome to hell gentlemen. Everything is black and white to Lois. HDDJ says gun control and she interprets it to mean he doesn't want any private citizen to own a gun. This is the sad reality of certain kinds of people. They just can't see beyond black and white.
Lois, I gave you good advice about pretending to be someone else. Don't carry it too far. It pisses off the natives when they think someone is trying to pull one over on them.
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Craig Fry
Trad climber
So Cal.
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Nov 30, 2015 - 03:48pm PT
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My ST imposter instincts aren't convinced that our new poster is LEB
I think we should let him/her speak freely.
Maybe this person can give us more details about his/her life so no more confusion will continue.
But the response about Gun Control was really off the mark.
No one has said "You want legislation which would bar all private citizens from owning any firearms?"
where in the heck did that come from?
Clueless or troll
that's the either or
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apogee
climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
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Nov 30, 2015 - 03:52pm PT
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Craig, it's Lois.
Trust me on this one.
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dirtbag
climber
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Nov 30, 2015 - 04:02pm PT
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Craig, there are a lot of unmistakable clues in her writing style, viewpoints, and ways of addressing arguments that I won't reveal here (though I could in an email, if you like).
My Lois detection radar has been wrong once, but right every other time, and I'm confident about this time.
Edit: and I say all this without any hard feelings or desire to see her banned.
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philo
climber
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Nov 30, 2015 - 04:05pm PT
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LEBification underway.
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dirtbag
climber
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Nov 30, 2015 - 04:07pm PT
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Ok, who do folks think will be the republican nominee?
I still say Rubio, just because he is most likely to be the last man standing.
Contenders: trump and cruz.
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John M
climber
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Nov 30, 2015 - 04:07pm PT
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Is Norton the only person who cares if she is back or not? For some reason she doesn't get under my skin as much anymore. Except perhaps the pretending. We sure use to argue though. haha..
no idea on who will be the republican nominee. I can't get those folks figured out.
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