U.S. Stock market "CORRECTION!!" Why am I not "too-skeered"

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Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Jan 3, 2018 - 03:33pm PT
Was pissed I missed out on Apple bitd, so last week when it dipped because of the low battery broo ha ha I was a buyer for ten round lots @ $170.

Its already up by thousands, but I'm sitting on it (day traders are parasites anyway).


Just gotta sack up and go for it. At least I can survive the losers, its not like free soloing,....
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Jan 3, 2018 - 04:01pm PT
Was pissed I missed out on Apple bitd, so last week when it dipped because of the low battery broo ha ha I was a buyer for ten round lots @ $170.

Its already up by thousands, but I'm sitting on it (day traders are parasites anyway).

Apple is at 172 now.
I'm not sure exactly when you bought, but it appears that Apple is up significantly less than the market as a whole (say S&P 500) in the last week or so.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 3, 2018 - 04:45pm PT
At least TV didn’t buy Tesla - down 2% today on news of further production problems. They’ve burned theough over 2 Billion in cash the past two quarters and are said to only have enough cash to last through the first quarter!
Moosie, SELL NOW!

If I was a betting man I would short Apple. The iPhone X isn’t selling and they don’t have anything else earthshaking in the pipeline.
seano

Mountain climber
none
Jan 3, 2018 - 05:45pm PT
If you like gambling, maybe short Intel? I don't, so I'm not touching it...

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/03/business/computer-flaws.html
i-b-goB

Social climber
Wise Acres
Jan 3, 2018 - 05:57pm PT
Take stock of your ass-ets!
john hansen

climber
Jan 3, 2018 - 06:22pm PT
When this thread started, Aug 28 2015 ,the Dow was at 16500.
Nasdaq was 4115,, S and P 1884.

That was right after the government shutdown.

Dow may top 25000 tomorrow,,,Nasdaq went over 7000 yesterday , S&P 2713.

There may be a correction coming ,or not. For now, will stay the course.

One other thing is that you are never going to cash out your whole portfolio in one year, hopefully more like over 20 or 25 years, so even if there is a 20 or even 30 percent downturn you would still have many years to recover as long as you are only taking out 6 or 7 % a year.

500000 x .07 = 35000

I think the real trick, is to die the same day as the money runs out. :)


EDIT: Every advisor I have ever talked to about annuities has said they are a bad idea,, except the guys trying to sell me annuities.

zBrown

Ice climber
Jan 4, 2018 - 08:13am PT
Hey zB - take a look at this: 1960-2010, 1950-2010, 1920-2015

Pay attention the the axes



blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Jan 4, 2018 - 09:11am PT
. . . I think the real trick, is to die the same day as the money runs out. :)

That's called an annuity.
Seems like a good idea for people who have no particular interest in leaving anything to anyone after death, but in practice they often seem to have a scam like quality (commissioned salespeople, high and non-transparent fees, etc.)
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 4, 2018 - 09:50am PT
Warren Buffett proclaims optimism for America's financial future

Warren Buffett proclaims optimism for America's financial future
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-buffett-essay/warren-buffett-proclaims-optimism-for-americas-financial-future-idUSKBN1ET1Y7

I know, he’s just a shill for the Zionist Imperialust (sic) Globalist Overlords.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 4, 2018 - 10:07am PT
I pity you atheists.

Gold is up cause the buck is down. Not rocket science, or a precursor of the Apocalypse.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 4, 2018 - 10:21am PT
Moosie, I would but would you pay up? Who’s gonna hold our money?
A year ago I would not have. A lot of things have changed for the better since then.
Even the bond yield curve has improved, admittedly not a lot, but something.
zBrown

Ice climber
Jan 4, 2018 - 10:26am PT
Well blah, may be a a memorable occasion. We agree on something. I think this happened once before.

Annuities.

(commissioned salespeople, high and non-transparent fees, etc.)
zBrown

Ice climber
Jan 4, 2018 - 10:29am PT
I'll give ya the Clapton is god hypothesis, but it's weak. No doubt about the Holy Ghost.




Gawd himself wishes he'd never touched it.
-Po' Willie Brown

[Click to View YouTube Video]
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Jan 4, 2018 - 11:47am PT
"t is by no means obvious, on an ex ante basis, that tax rate cuts will ultimately lead to a larger economy," as the Brookings Institution's William Gale and Andrew Samwick wrote in a 2014 paper. Well-designed tax policy can increase growth, they wrote, but to do so, tax cuts have to come alongside spending cuts.

And even then, it can't just be any spending cuts — it has to be cuts to "unproductive" spending.

"I want to be clear — one can write down models where taxes generate big effects," Gale told NPR. But models are not the real world, he added. "The empirical evidence is quite different from the modeling results, and the empirical evidence is much weaker."

It's not just Gale. According to a 2012 report from the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service (referenced by the New York Times' David Leonhardt in a 2012 column), top marginal tax rates and economic growth have not appeared correlated over the past 60 years.

"Cuts to unproductive spending." That sounds like the Pentagon. But according to Ryan the cuts will be paid for by cutting medicare and social security.
Bruce Morris

Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
Jan 4, 2018 - 12:08pm PT
Interesting that you bring that up about gold rising steadily lately, Moose. I've been noticing that too. Could be an indicator of a coming correction? But silver went up a while ago and then it went back down. Smart money could be moving into precious metals cause they smell a coming crash. Hard to say until it happens though.

StahlBro

Trad climber
San Diego, CA
Jan 4, 2018 - 12:34pm PT
This is pure irrational enthusiasm. There are no underlying changes to the US key economic indicators to justify this kind of growth. Dotcom and mortgage crisis all over again.

The insiders will cash out before the inevitable correction/collapse.

Same as it ever was. Unrestrained capitalism is the false god.
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Jan 4, 2018 - 01:07pm PT
Unrestrained capitalism is the false god.

But...but...but...Venezuela!!!111
zBrown

Ice climber
Jan 4, 2018 - 04:16pm PT

Get high, buy, sell.

These two and a number of associates grossed over $100 million in around 4-5 years. What was the margin? I don't know but it was high (too).

How much jail time? Not that much considering the ROI.


Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 4, 2018 - 05:43pm PT
Reilly, how about we compare our returns the end of the year.

Dood, I’m not that kinda guy, although I did enjoy “Hedwig and the Angry Inch”.
zBrown

Ice climber
Jan 4, 2018 - 06:42pm PT
^Where are your tax returnz, Doodah? We all love a parade.

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