Discussion Topic |
|
This thread has been locked |
HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 14, 2016 - 08:48am PT
|
Here is a great article about the future of cars, something which I've posted about before and cannot wait for. Building our cities around cars was one of the dumbest things we ever did as a country.
http://stratechery.com/2016/cars-and-the-future/
Once again, a company, built around the hottest tech in the industry, stole the spotlight at CES. This time, though , the product was not a smartphone, and the company was not Apple. For my money the most interesting news of last week came from a most surprising source: General Motors.
First up was the news that the century-old American car maker was investing $500 million in ride-sharing startup Lyft. Then, a few days later, the company formally introduced the Chevrolet Bolt, a (relatively-speaking) no-frills electric car that promises to go 200 miles on a charge for about $30,000. Perhaps it was the company in question, or simply the timing, but it reinforced the sense that fundamental change is coming to the world of transportation.
What is interesting, though, is that while change is certainly coming, it is coming on multiple axes: The Lyft news is about the secular shift from individually owned-and-operated automobiles to transportation-as-a-service, while the Chevrolet Bolt is about how the cars themselves are made. Meanwhile, Google, Uber, Tesla, and others are working on obviating the need for a driver at all. To put it another way, when it comes to questioning the future of transportation, the “What?”, “How?”, and “Where?” are all in play.
THE FUTURE IS HERE?
It’s easy to predict a future where all of these trends coalesce: electrically-powered self-driving cars, summoned from our smartphones, take us where we need to go with plenty of time to finally beat Candy Crush. After all, the trends all reinforce each other:
The simpler drivetrain of an electric vehicle rearranges what matters when it comes to building a car: the engineering that matters is more software and less mechanical, opening the door to software companies that are vastly more suited to developing self-driving technology
Electrical vehicles have (relative to gas-powered cars) higher fixed costs but lower marginal costs. This is a natural fit with ride sharing services focused on reducing the average cost per ride. Range is a concern, but a car with an exchangeable battery based out of a central depot (much more viable for a transportation company than an individual) could work well
Similarly, self-driving cars remove the largest cost from ride-sharing services: the driver. This has import beyond any one ride in question: the big prize is consumers giving up cars completely, which would result in ride-sharing utilization increasing exponentially
So it’s set then. Welcome to our carless future.
The article continues and is worth a full read.
|
|
Escopeta
Trad climber
Idaho
|
|
Jan 14, 2016 - 08:55am PT
|
In my opinion government plays a big part in our system. I'm pretty sure that's why we are so proud of having a democracy and whatnot.
Ok. Cool. Although, let's not get carried away. Lot's of countries have a Democracy. A Democracy doesn't equate to freedom as even our country has proven.
So then it sounds like based on that and your previous comments around the millionaire benefiting more from the American system, which government plays a large part, your opinion would indicate that the millionaire exits because of the government, rather than in spite of it?
Again, not trying to put words in your mouth, just trying to connect the dots.
EDIT: Maybe another way of asking is to say that if the millionaire should pay more because he benefits more from American System vis-a-vis the Government, is it logical to say that if we have more government, we would have more Millionaires? Because that would also mean that with less government, the mother of 2 suffers more?
If not, then why?
|
|
dirtbag
climber
|
|
Jan 14, 2016 - 08:55am PT
|
C'mon, dirt. Don't be that guy who only posts when it's time to talk sh#t. You're a smart guy, post some content.
Thanks. I didn't mean step aside for a few days or weeks, but stay out of the discussion you're having with him for now. Plus, I need to get some things done!
|
|
HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 14, 2016 - 09:17am PT
|
Haha, fair enough, dirt.
Escopeta posted EDIT: Maybe another way of asking is to say that if the millionaire should pay more because he benefits more from American System vis-a-vis the Government, is it logical to say that if we have more government, we would have more Millionaires? Because that would also mean that with less government, the mother of 2 suffers more?
If not, then why?
Again, you're acting like government gets ladled out of a bucket. "If some melted cheese is good then more is better!" Additionally, you continue to adhere to a conservative political construct or "more" or "less" government. Those words don't actually mean anything and as such I don't find that to be useful terminology. I'll answer actual policy questions and discuss the role of government, but trying to communicate my ideas using the frame of your political thought isn't going to work because the vocabulary is contrived and meaningless outside a conservative media-centric worldview.
So let me flip this around: Conservative political rhetoric centers around the fact that government has only grown "larger" (whatever that means), more intrusive, more inept and is a barrier to Americans achieving prosperity. At the same time, there are more millionaires living in the US than there ever have been. If the government has become more of a problem, not less of one, why are the numbers of extremely prosperous people increasing?
|
|
guyman
Social climber
Moorpark, CA.
|
|
Jan 14, 2016 - 09:26am PT
|
Building our cities around cars was one of the dumbest things we ever did as a country.
HDDJ... I think your mistaken. Our cities/towns were not built around cars.
The old ones were built around Horses and wagons. The Automobile was made to replace the the Horse and all the labor it took to keep a horse. Bicycles were also invented as a better thing than a horse. The first push to pave roads was so that bicycles could haul ass, around town. Out west the automobile really got going because it is dry, in Southern California, one could follow hard packed dirt roads all over the place.... that's why LA grew up spread out.
But please look at it this way. Nothing in our country is really "designed". Things come along to fill a need, then stuff changes to adapt
to the new conditions. This is the market at work.
Up in Mohave there is a Tesla charging station. Good for Tesla because Tesla owners can maybe make it to Mammoth for some fun on weekends. The government isn't putting in these stations (thank God) its a private deal paying the money to do this to make their cars more attractive.
Is GM going to do the same? Or will some petroleum company add charging stations to existing stations?
When you have that infrastructure electric cars will have a shot.
Americans have always been very quick to take up new things, as long as they are better and cheaper.
|
|
HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 14, 2016 - 09:34am PT
|
guyman posted HDDJ... I think your mistaken. Our cities/towns were not built around cars.
The old ones were built around Horses and wagons. The Automobile was made to replace the the Horse and all the labor it took to keep a horse. Bicycles were also invented as a better thing than a horse. The first push to pave roads was so that bicycles could haul ass, around town. Out west the automobile really got going because it is dry, in Southern California, one could follow hard packed dirt roads all over the place.... that's why LA grew up spread out.
That's true in the oldest parts of our oldest cities, but pedestrians still dominated the terrain until automobiles. The vast majority of American roads were built after automobiles became the prime mode of transportation. Think about how much space in your average town is dedicated almost entirely to automobiles: the roads, the parking lots. Look at your average supermarket or movie megaplex. It's a large box surrounded by a parking lot 10 times as big that sits empty the majority of the time. Roads are extremely wide because of certain government mandates and people's expectations of what "good roads" look and feel like. We sacrificed rich vibrant community for the ability to leave our communities as quickly as possible.
|
|
Escopeta
Trad climber
Idaho
|
|
Jan 14, 2016 - 09:41am PT
|
I'll answer actual policy questions and discuss the role of government, but trying to communicate my ideas using the frame of your political thought isn't going to work because the vocabulary is contrived and meaningless outside a conservative media-centric worldview.
Can you answer it within your frame of political thought using a language that isn't conservative and media-centric? I'll do my best to keep up.
|
|
Lorenzo
Trad climber
Portland Oregon
|
|
Jan 14, 2016 - 09:51am PT
|
Out west the automobile really got going because it is dry, in Southern California, one could follow hard packed dirt roads all over the place.... that's why LA grew up spread out.
Revisionist history. LA didn't grow and spread out until the inter urban transit system.. Between the Los Angeles railway trolley system and the Pacific Electric system, it became the largest urban transit system in the World.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles_Railway
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Electric#Interurban_cars
The system was built as a part of land development schemes, which included diverting Owens River water to the San Fernando valley and providing easy transportation to outlying areas to sell cheap desert land. Trolley systems were a common tool to grow cities out. My h100 yr old house in portland is in one of those trolley neighborhoods served by three lines within walking distance. You can still see tracks in the streets.
Then General Motors bought the system and scrapped it so they could sell busses and then so people would have to buy cars.
When they converted trolley to bus systems, they strung double overhead lines, some of which still remain in places like Seattle.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_conspiracy
In 1950 GM and other companies were convicted of monopoly conspiracy, but they could never make the charge on conspiracy to scrap the system to sell cars stick.
The same thing happened around the country. My grandmother was part of a suit in Milwaukee Wisconsin on the same issue.
|
|
EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
|
|
Jan 14, 2016 - 09:55am PT
|
Here is a great article about the future of cars, something which I've posted about before and cannot wait for.
You'll probably be waiting for a long time. Electric cars and self-driving cars are swell and all. But until there's innovation or legislation that makes owning gas-powered vehicles less desirable, little is going to change.
It looked like we were on our way ten years ago, when gas prices were steadily climbing and cheap fuel seemed to be a thing of the past. That's no longer the case. Gas is cheap. And we like over-sized rides.
|
|
HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 14, 2016 - 10:08am PT
|
Edward posted You'll probably be waiting for a long time. Electric cars and self-driving cars are swell and all. But until there's innovation or legislation that makes owning gas-powered vehicles less desirable, little is going to change.
This is discussed in the article. Did you read it? We have a generation of techy urbanites who are already growing accustomed to using their smartphones for most things and Uber/Lyft are laying the groundwork for the rest of it. You have Google, Apple, GM, Ford all investing in it. I think it will take a long time for it to reach rural areas (like where I live) but urban centers will transform quickly. Look at Manhattan where owning a car is already an enormous luxury.
Escopeta posted Can you answer it within your frame of political thought using a language that isn't conservative and media-centric? I'll do my best to keep up.
I don't know what you're asking. Asking me if "more government would mean more millionaires" is an absurdist question. As I've explained, "more government" doesn't mean anything to me. I'm not trying to be obtuse or pedantic, I'm very specifically making the point that you're using political language to ask me questions. It would be like me asking you if you thought perpetuating the "War on Women" was the best course of action for our country.
|
|
Escopeta
Trad climber
Idaho
|
|
Jan 14, 2016 - 10:17am PT
|
Okay
|
|
August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
|
|
Jan 14, 2016 - 11:37am PT
|
Because of liability issues, I don't believe that the US will be an early adopter of self-driving cars. My expectation is that it will be deployed in places like Japan and South Korea first. If it works well, then there will be pressure in the US to change laws to limit deal with the legal limitations.
|
|
guyman
Social climber
Moorpark, CA.
|
|
Jan 14, 2016 - 11:38am PT
|
Lorenzo said...
Revisionist history. LA didn't grow and spread out until the inter urban transit system..
Revisionist???????? I don't think that is true, Lorenzo.
LA started to grow in the last half of the 1800's... The big RR blasted through and a agricultural boom was on due to several factors: the irrigation projects paid for by the big RR who also traded many Kansas Farmers their 160 acre homesteads and set them us as "semi-tropical fruit growers" in the LA Basin, San Gabriel Valley, Inland Empire and Orange County. As you can see these were very spread out communities and they were served by the RAILROAD. The other main form of transportation were animal pulled wagons and in some cases Ships. The LA Electric Railway first started up around 1901 and laid down tracks to many of these far flung communities.
So as you can see... the Electric Railway was built to serve the need of already existing communities and it enhanced the connection between them and LA.
Not the other way around as you suggest.
And with the invent of the Model T the ability to move around increased even more rapidly and the number of agricultural communities increased in some very out of the way places, not originally served by the RR due to various factors.
|
|
JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
|
|
Jan 14, 2016 - 12:53pm PT
|
To be honest, the public doesn't care much. The debt and deficit are not hot topics in this election. Politicians are avoiding the unpopular issues of raising taxes and cutting programs. In a strengthening economy Democrats aren't going to raise taxes and Republicans aren't going to cut spending. So here we are.
I agree, crankster. Anyone who makes honest arguments about trade-offs gets drowned out by the snake oil sales pitches of the other candidates in both parties. We won't recognize the truth that we're in this together. Instead, we want to lay responsibility for needed changes and sacrifice entirely on a set of which we are not members.
John
|
|
JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
|
|
Jan 14, 2016 - 01:09pm PT
|
Building our cities around cars was one of the dumbest things we ever did as a country.
I could not disagree more. Could you imagine what traffic jams would be like (and smell like) if we were all riding horses?
More importantly, private automobiles form the most sophisticated transportation system for humans in areas with appropriate infrastructure for at least the following reasons:
1. The automobile gives its occupants control over their environment. My car is exactly as warm or cool as I want, plays exactly the music or programming I want to hear, and contains only the occupants I desire.
2. The automobile optimizes its owners' time usage. It begins the journey exactly when I am ready. It goes precisely where I want to go. It makes no unnecessary side trips.
3. The automobile allows secure, convenient, trips to multiple areas. With the car, you can shop in multiple destinations without needing to keep what you purchased on your person, or to retun home after each purchase. Similarly, I can go to work, then to the golf course, then to the gym, all without lugging the gear I'm not using on my person all day.
4. The automobile is the most fuel-efficient enclosed powered vehicle for a single occupant. No one disputes that public transportation is fuel efficient per passenger - when it's full. When it's not -- as in the case of, for example, many buses, subways, etc. outside of peak hours -- it is terribly fuel-inefficient.
5. The owner of an automobile still has the option of using public transit when desired. If desired, the automobile owner can still use a bus, train or car pool. It's up to the owner.
The newer urban areas didn't form in a way that accommodates the automobile because of stupidity, but because the residents recognized, and rationally preferred, the advantages of travel by private automobile. The sooner advocates of public transit figure this out, the sooner we may acquire a rational public transit system.
John
|
|
Craig Fry
Trad climber
So Cal.
|
|
Jan 14, 2016 - 02:47pm PT
|
I kept my Insurance plan, I kept my Doctor
so calling Obama a liar is a LIE
John, did you keep your Doctor?
Talk about Obama not reaching across the aisle, he tried and tried to get them to work with him
and those damn Republicans just sat on there hands and looked like a pack of treasonous scum bags, do they hate our County that much?
can't they do anything beside work against the Dems?
What have they done? anything that they did do just screwed the average person more.
And then they lie about how he can't get things done, and lie about how he is ineffective, and weak, and this and that,
all lies, all projection of the Republicans failure to do anything of substance, they are weak, they are ineffective, they can't get things done
They are pathetic lairs and scam artists, and only suckers and millionaires would support such a crowd of pure evil.
|
|
Lorenzo
Trad climber
Portland Oregon
|
|
Jan 14, 2016 - 03:22pm PT
|
Meh,
the 14th ammendment says citizenship classification is up to Congress. They already declared John McCain natural born when he ran, even though he was born in unincorporated territory, which the SCOTUS ruled is NOT US soil.
(Panama Canal Zone)
Even if you challenge, the conservative court will probably choose not to hear the case until he's out of office.
|
|
Craig Fry
Trad climber
So Cal.
|
|
Jan 14, 2016 - 03:27pm PT
|
McCain is challenging Cruz
McCain looked into it back in 2008, and found out that since he WAS Born in a USA Territory he was in the clear.
IF Obama was born in Kenya = Naturalized citizen
So you're way WRONG
It goes back to Common Law, and what the words MEAN
Natural Born means Born inside the Country
Naturalized means born outside and given Citizenship
The constitution clearly States you must be a "Natural Born Citizen" to be President.
It can't any more simple to understand, unless your a Republican and don't like facts, so just ignore them at your own discretion.
vvvv
please provide link to your claim about McCain
and anyway, McCain didn't become President, so it wasn't really challenged
|
|
Lorenzo
Trad climber
Portland Oregon
|
|
Jan 14, 2016 - 03:46pm PT
|
McCain looked into it back in 2008, and found out that since he WAS Born in a USA Territory he was in the clear.
He's playing games.
In the early part of the century the court made the distinction between incorporated territory and unincorporated. You were natural born in the first, but not in the second ( back then the distinction was distinction between places like Hawaii and Panama Canal Zone)
In 1937 they included Panama as a place you could gain natural born status. Unfortunately, McCain was born in 1936. He wasn't natural born.
Congress just passed a resolution to make it retroactive, thus setting the precedent that they get to decide.
|
|
|
SuperTopo on the Web
|